ClimateToolbox.org
Climate Toolbox Activities
FUTURE FORESTS
EXPLORE FUTURE FORESTS
NEAR PORTLAND, OREGON
In this activity, we will explore future projections for the forests surrounding Portland, Oregon by utilizing the Future Vegetation Tool in the Climate Toolbox.
Many of the trees in cool temperate forests undergo a winter dormancy period of no growth where they need cool temperatures (chill accumulation) for trees to break dormancy. In a warming planet, trees may not accumulate enough chill in the winter season and will have inadequate growth so that the species suffers in the forest ecosystem.
Climate Effects
The forests of Portland are currently coniferous forests which thrive in a cool temperate climate. Coniferous trees have needle leaves and cones and include pines, cedars, spruces and firs. These forests produce an understory that has a lot of shade and are cool and moist. These forests occur where winter temperatures typically get below freezing and summers are cool and moist.
Deciduous forests thrive in a warm temperate climate such as that of the Central Valley of California. Deciduous trees have broad leaves and flowers and include oaks, maples and dogwoods. These forests produce an understory that has a lot of light and allows warm, dry air to penetrate the forest. These forests occur where summers are warm, winters are mild (without extended period of snow cover or frost) and where there is a marked dry season.
Many of the trees in warm temperate forests are resilient to summer heat wave events. However, trees in the cool temperate forests can be damaged when temperatures exceed 110o F resulting in brown scorched leaves and even death to young trees. In a warming planet, such heat scorching events may become more common. The climate of the dense forests usually serves as a protection from such damage but forest thinning or fires can expose trees to extreme heat events.
Chill Accumulation
Cool Temperate Forests
Warm Temperate Forests
Heat Scorching
Mixed Forests
Mixed forests have many different species.
Climate Analogs
Future climate analogs for Portland are those locations that are climatically similar to the future climate of Portland. The current forests in these locations can give us an idea of the future forests of Portland.
ClimateToolbox.org
Data
FUTURE FORESTS
The model determines fire occurrence based on available above-ground fuel (height, trunk diameter, bark thickness) and climate (moisture, humidity, temperatures) conducive to fire ignition. The model can suppress fires.
The future vegetation data used in this activity was produced with a dynamic global vegetation model which simulates how vegetation populations respond to climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and disturbances such as wildfire. The model used climate data to simulate plant growth, decomposition, soil respiration and nutrient release and competition for light, nitrogen and soil water.
Activity
The model simulates populations in classes of vegetation rather than individual species. Some classes are evergreen and deciduous needleleaf and broadleaf woody trees and shrubs or herbaceous grasses.
Vegetation Classes
Fire & Fire Suppression
Create a climate data story of forests near Portland. Prepare a 3-5 min presentation (2 slides) on your story.
To Do
Prepare Slide
To Do
Prepare Slide
Prepare Talking Points
The Meaning (Slide 2)
The Facts (Slide 1)
The Meaning (Slide 2)