Welcome�to�Wargaming

Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.

21 June 2023

Disclaimer

The following views are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Air Force Research Laboratory, Air Force Materiel Command or the United States Air Force

Purpose

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Provide Connections participants who are new to wargaming with enough of a foundation in the field that they can productively learn from and contribute to the balance of the conference – and beyond.

Matt Caffrey

• DoD Civil Servant – previous positions
• AFRL Liaison to HQ AFMC for Wargaming
• Lead Wargaming, Air Force Research Laboratory
• Professor of Wargaming, Air Command & Staff Col
• Research, School for Advanced Airpower Studies
• Col USAFR (ret.) - assignments
• Senior Reservist, AFRL Info Directorate
• Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate)
• Author/Speaker
• Author, On Wargaming
• Co-author, Gulf War Fact Book
• Three chapters, a dozen wargames, many articles, �hundreds of talks

Overview

• Why/What/How Wargaming
• Why Wargaming
• What is Wargaming
• How does it provide an edge
• Origins/Evolution of Connections
• Breath of Wargaming
• Continuing Your Professional Development

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Why Go To a Particular Movie?

• Good reviews, from sources you respect
• Popularity, top box office
• Past performance, previous movies by the same director, actor, screen writer…

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Why Study Wargaming?

• Endorsed by Masters of War
• Nearly Universal Adoption
• Past Performance
• again and again wargaming has provided an edge

Historical Support�Endorcements

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Why Wargaming�Near Universal Adoption

• NATO: Live & constructive +
• Joint Air Power Competence Center,
• Sweden's Wargames in support of Partnership for Peace
• USA: See next slide
• Russia: Much known of Soviet WGing, catching up
• China: Soviet > OJT > commercial > centralized
• India: Live WGs with US & Russia, ops planning
• UK: Live, virtual, constructive – Civ; def, ed & popular
• France: Live, virtual, constructive
• Germany: 2000 Wargame Center at War College

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Why Wargaming�Past Performance

Why Wargaming

• Wargaming saves lives

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• For the side that wargames more effectively

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What Is a Wargame?

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Created by Col Uwe Heilmann, German Air Force, for your instructor in 1999

Definitions

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Reality

Simulation

Model

Simulation Game

Wargame

Proportional Representation

Over Time

Multisided

Armed Conflict

Definitions

Wargame: an armed conflict simulation game.

My definition

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Wargame: A simulation of armed conflict in which participant decisions influence outcomes.

Emerging, largely Dr. Perla

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Vocabulary

Is M&S another term for wargaming? It should not be…

• Models are static
• Simulations depict variations over time
• Wargames depict the interaction of two or more �adversaries
• M&S software is sometimes called an adjudication engine
• M&S adjudication software is no more a wargame than a �jet engine is an aircraft – you would not call the entire �aircraft a jet, oh wait…

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Vocabulary�What is the difference between exercises and wargames?

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• Exercises are live simulations of actual operations.
• Wargames are simulated interactions of armed adversaries.
• Not all wargames are exercises, nor are all exercises wargames.
• Some exercises, like a mobility exercise, have no Red side and are simulation exercises.
• Other exercises, like Red Flag, have a reacting Red and are wargames.
• Some wargames, like COA explorations by an AOC’s Strategy Division, involve few of the people who would execute the COA and are clearly not exercises.
• Other exercises, like ACE and Patriot, include elements of wargame, simulation, experiment, and demonstration.

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Maneuver

Vocabulary�What is the difference between exercises and wargames?

What is the difference between exercises and wargames?

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At least as late as 1961 it was much clearer:

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What Are It’s Elements?

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Friendly Forces

Opposing Forces

Game Control

Adjudication

Analysis

After-Action Reporting

My thanks to Ms. Diana Lynn for enhancing this slide.

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

The Wargame Process

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Initial State

Blue Plan

Red Plan

Adjudication

End State

The Wargame Process

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End State

Initial State

End State Move 1 Initial State Move 2

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End State Move 2 Initial State Move 3

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Types of Wargames

Each has advantages and disadvantages.

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Terrain Table

Miniatures/Figure

Map/Board or Paper/Chart

Computer

Types of Constructive Wargames

Parameters of Wargaming

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Cost

Duration

Participants

Days

300

Hours

Weeks

Months

Years

30

1200

12

6

3

1,000,000s

100s

10,000,000s

Free

1 Billion+

10,000s

100,000s

1,000s

Other Parameters Include:

Depth into future of scenario

Level of War (tac to strat)

Prep time (0 to a lot)

Level of detail

How Does It Provide An Edge

• More effective forces
• More effective employment

More Effective Forces

• Education and Training
• Doctrine and Tactics
• Materiel

More Effective Employment

• Strategic
• Operational
• Tactical

Conclusion

• Wargaming saves lives

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• For the side that wargames more effectively

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The Breadth of Wargaming

Matt Caffrey

Introduction

• Most early cultures assumed their were located at the center of existence.
• The “Age of Discovery” accelerated learning at least as much through the change of perspective as through the new knowledge gained.
• Most folks who are new (and not so new) to wargaming assume their organization/type of wargaming is the only organization or type of wargaming that exists.
• Learning the true breath of wargaming is the first step in learning there is much of value to learn.

International Wargaming

All* top-tier militaries employ some type of wargaming.

• NATO: Live & constructive +
• Joint Air Power Competence Center,
• Sweden's Wargames in support of Partnership for Peace
• USA: See next slide
• Russia: Much known of Soviet WGing, catching up
• China: Soviet > OJT > commercial > centralized
• India: Live WGs with US & Russia, ops planning
• UK: Live, virtual, constructive – Civ; def, ed (King’s College) & popular
• France: Live, virtual, constructive
• Germany: 2000 Wargame Center at War College

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US Wargaming

• Popular
• Miniatures wargames, second to UK
• Print/board wargames, invented the field, still source of majority would wide
• Computer wargames, invented the field, now one source of many
• Academic
• Civilian; Georgetown, Old Dominion, U of Florida, Orlando, Johns Hopkins SAIS MIT
• Government; Naval Postgraduate School, AFMC > AFIT US Naval Academy, Marine Corps University Command & Staff College, Army Command & General Staff College
• Other, Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Certificate Program
• Government
• National Security Council
• Intelligence Community
• Defense (See Next Slide)

Defense Wargaming

• Office of the Secretary of Defense
• Office of Net Assessment (ONA)
• Office of Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)
• Policy
• Joint Staff
• J-8, Studies Analysis and Gaming Division (SAGD)
• J-7, Wargame Branch
• Combatant Commands (COCOMs)
• US Central Command, Combat Analysis Group
• US European Command, Warrior Preparation Center
• US Pacific Command, Warfighting Center of the Pacific
• US Special Operation Command, Wargame Center
• US Strategic Command, Wargame Center

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Defense Wargaming

• Services
• Air Force –see next slide
• Space Force, Schriever Wargame
• Army, Center for Strategic Leadership*, AWC, Future Studies Program
• Navy, Wargame Department NWC, Navy Global
• Marine Corps, Wargame Department, Expeditionary Warrior
• Federally Funded R&D Centers (FFRDC)
• Project Air Force – RAND
• Center for Naval Analysis (CNA)
• Institute For Defense Analysis (IDA)
• Defense Contractors
• Booz Allen Hamilton
• SAIC

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USAF Wargaming

• HAF/A5SW & AFF:
• Title 10 Wargames; Global Engagement, FG
• Plan Blue
• LeMay Center Wargaming Institute
• MAJCOMs
• Air Combat Command; CCMD support and Flag Program
• Red Flag
• Virtual Red Flag
• Blue Flag
• Air Education and Training Command
• Professional Military Education
• Exploratory Wargames
• AF Global Strike Command: Strategic Vigilance
• AF Special Operations Command: Shadow Warrior
• Air Mobility Command: GLOMO/ACS
• AF Material Command; GLOMO/ACS, LDLW, S&T Wargame

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Conclusion

• Europe’s voyages of discovery helped spark not just a scientific revolution but a commercial and agricultural revolution as well
• Learning how the rest of the world wargames may provide benefits you cannot yet imagine.
• If our community learns from each other we are more likely to wargame more effectively then our adversaries

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• Remember, wargames save lives – for the side that wargames more effectively.

Origin Story

It was the eve of Christmas Eve 1992…

Col Wardens Concerns

• Wargaming to develop strategies
• Indirect effects ignored
• Human factors ignored
• Effective plan shown as ineffective
• Wargaming to develop stratigests
• To much time learning interface, too little learning strategy
• Same areas ignored
• “Distraining” equivalent in education

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Solutions

• Commercial interfaces effective
• Each service doing somethings right
• No one going everything right

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• What can we do?
• A conference to cross tell best practices?
• OK, (next question)

Initial Plans

• Mission: Advance the art, science and application of wargaming

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Initial Plans

• Annual Conference
• Invitational orders to key wargame innovators
• Target audience – wargame practitioners
• Multi disciplined – areas not wargamed or not wargamed well
• Especially airpower
• Hollywood connection
• 365/24 web site, reference and connector

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The first Conference

Airpower Education & Wargaming Conference

• 1993
• Sponsor, Air University Commander
• Host, ACSC
• Maxwell AFB, Alabama
• 63 participants
• All services
• All star from popular wargaming; James Dunnigan, Dr. Peter Perla, Dr Al Nofi, Joseph Miranda and many more

The Air University Years

• Great Command support
• AU Commander (Lt Gen) opened conference
• ACSC Commandant signed invitations
• Many innovations
• 1996, “First Timers” program
• 1997, Host w. Wargame Institute, Demo Night
• 1998, Bigger Demo Night, Game Night
• 2002, Working Groups, Demo Afternoon

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The Traveling Conference

• 2003 AFRL Information Dir, Rome NY
• 2004 AF Modeling and Simulation Agency
• 2005 AFA*
• 2006/8 Concurrent w. Defense M&S Conf
• Others included NDU, AFRL, USMC, AWC, IDA, Lemay Center Wargaming Institute

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Connections�Interdisciplinary Wargaming Conferences

Connections

Connections

Netherlands

Connections �Australia

Connections

UK

Connections

North

Serious Games

Forum (France)

Going International

• 2013 1st Connections UK
• 2014 1st Connections OZ (Australia)
• 2015 1^st Connections Netherlands
• 2017 1^st Connections North (Canada)
• 2020 1^st SGC/Connections France
• 2020 Only Connections US/Connections Global� (first Connections to be held online)
• 2021 1^st Connections Online
• 2022 1^st Connections Japan

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Interest expressed in; Connections Nordic (Nordic Nations) & Connections South (Brazil)

Continuity and Innovation

• Mission: Advance and sustain the art, science and application of wargaming

Continuity and Innovation

• Annual Conferences
• Keynotes & Speaker Panels
• Game Demo, Night, & Showcase
• Working Groups/workshops & Game Labs
• 24/7 Web sites
• Info from previous conferences
• Links to sister conferences
• References; glossary, Guide to learn more

Benefits from Connections

• Educated Participants
• Advances in Art & Science
• New Applications
• Year Round Reference
• For Host;
• Specific Issue Addressed by Community
• Out Reah to Wargame Community

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Support to Connections

• Volunteer
• Speak
• Wargame
• Co-lead
• Host
• Facility, AO, ZERO $$

Conclusions

• Wargaming increases our chances of military success while reducing the cost in lives, time and treasure – for the side that wargames more effectively
• Connections conferences increases the odds it will be the US, our allies and friends who wargame more effectively

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Continuing Your �Professional Development

Sources of Development�Organizations

• Connections conferences: US, UK, AU, NL, CA, FR, Online
• Military Operations Research Society (MORS): Brown Bags, Symposium and more
• Georgetown University Wargaming Society (GUWS): Lecture series
• King’s College, London: Lecture series
• Center for New American Security: Online issue-education wargames

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Sources of Development�Books

• The Art of Wargaming, by Dr. Peter Perla
• On Wargaming, Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.
• Wargame Design, by S&T Staff
• Simulating War, by Dr. Philip Sabin
• War Gamers Handbook, by USNWC Wargame Dept.
• Army Wargame Handbook, by USAWC
• Wargame Handbook, MOD UK
• Successful Professional Wargames: A Practioner's Handbook, Graham Longley Brown
• Zones of Control, ed. P. Harrigan & M. G. Kirschenbaum

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Sources of Development�Websites

• Government only
• DOD Wargame Repository
• AFMC Wargame Site
• Public
• Connections-Wargaming.com
• paxsims.wordpress.com
• King's College Wargaming Network (on YouTube)
• Warontherocks.com
• StrategyPage.com
• Armchairdragoons.com

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Conclusion

• It is important we wargame more effectively than our adversaries.
• Today we have an edge.
• If we keep and increase that edge will depend on the effectiveness of you and the others in your generation of wargamers