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A Context to Gaza Genocide

Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics

Fishermen in the seaport in Gaza City, Dec. 13, 2012. 

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By now, many have delved into the history of “Israel-Palestine Conflict”. There are various reasons why the ongoing genocide is happening.

Here, we are focusing on one of them: the Natural gas reserves discovered in Gaza, Palestine.

Here are some simplified timelines of the geopolitics involving those aforementioned reserves.

Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics

Part 1

Palestinian Authority Split

PNA signed a 25-year contract for gas exploration with BGG.

Change of mind

Rejection

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Authorization (July 2000)

Discovery

Gas reserves found by BGG group (1999) in Oslo II Accords defined Gaza territory

Renegotiation

1999 Agreement

Offer to Israel Electric Corporation (June 2000)

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Ehud Barak, Israel’s PM, approved authorization for BGG to drill first well.

Palestine and Israel began to negotiate and the deal was seen to benefit both countries.�

2001: The new Israeli PM Ariel Sharon rejects supply deal between the Palestinian gas field and the state-owned Israel Electric Corporation.

BGG proposed to provide the State-owned Israel Electric Corporation with natural gas from Egypt, Israel (from fields off Ashkelon) and Gaza

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Sharon changes mind stating that the funds could be used to support terrorism.

New Israeli PM Ehud Olmert reopens negotiations with BGG in April 2007.

14 June 2007: Political and administrative split between Gaza and the West Bank.

Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics

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1999: BG Group (BGG) discovered a large gas field between 17 and 21 nautical miles off the coast of Gaza. Oslo II accords state that the Palestine National Authority has maritime jurisdiction up to 20 nautical miles off of Gaza’s coast. So despite the current “ownership” of those fields, the Gaza gas fields were first discovered in Palestinian territorial waters.

�November 1999: the PNA signed a 25-year contract for gas exploration with BGG.

�June 2000: BGG proposed to provide the State-owned Israel Electric Corporation with natural gas from Egypt, Israel (from fields off Ashkelon) and Gaza.

�July 2000:  Ehud Barak, Israel’s Prime Minister at the time, approved authorization for BGG to drill the first well Palestine. As a result of this, Palestine and Israel began to negotiate and the deal was seen to benefit both Israeli demand and Palestinian supply.

�27 September 2000: Directly before the start of the second intifada, the President of PNA lit the flame proving the presence of gas at the BGG offshore exploration platform.

�2001: A change in Israeli Leadership occurs. Ariel Sharon becomes PM and rejects supply deal between the Palestinian gas field and the state-owned Israel Electric Corporation. 

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May 2002:  UK PM, Tony Blair negotiates an agreement with Sharon  for the annual supply of 0.05 trillion cubic feet of Palestinian gas for a period of 10 to 15 years.

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2003: Sharon changes mind stating that the funds could be used to support terrorism.

Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics

Part 2

Refusal

Israeli Govt. refused to conclude agreement with BGG with excuse of Israel’s transferring $1 billion on behalf of PNA as a threat to itself

End of Negotiations

BGG withdrew from negotiations with the Israeli government in December 2007

Renegotiation From Israel

Israeli government re-contacted BGG to urgently renegotiate the deal in June 2008

Unlawful Change of Ownership

Israel invades Gaza and takes control of the Palestinian gas fields in violation of International law.

De facto Control

Israel holds de facto control of Palestinian natural oil fields since then

The “Coincidence”

The decision to speed up negotiations with BGG coincided, chronologically, with the planning of an Israeli military operation in Gaza.

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Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics (Cont.)

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April 2007: New Israeli PM Ehud Olmert reopens negotiations with BGG. They decided that from 2009, Israel would purchase 0.05 trillion cubic feet of Palestinian gas for $4 billion annually, creating a good atmosphere for peace, it was argued.

�14 June 2007: Political and administrative split between Gaza and the West Bank occurred after the 2007 Battle of Gaza, in which Hamas took control of the strip changed the deal once more, with Hamas looking to increase the original 10% Palestinian share in the BGG deal.

�September 2007: Israeli government advised to not conclude an agreement with BGG on the grounds that Israel’s transferring $1 billion “into local or international bank accounts on behalf of [PNA] would be tantamount to Israel’s bankrolling terror against itself.”

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December 2007: BGG withdrew from negotiations with the Israeli government.

�June 2008: the Israeli government reached out to BGG to urgently renegotiate the deal.

�December 2008: Israel’s invasion of Gaza brought the Palestinian gas fields under Israeli control—without regard for international law. BGG has been dealing with the Israeli government ever since. 

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Timeline of Israeli & Palestinian Reserves and Geopolitics (Cont.)

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Some important points to add in this timeline to paint the full picture:

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• The decision to speed up negotiations with BGG coincided, chronologically, with the planning of an Israeli military operation in Gaza, it would appear that the Government of Israel wished to reach an agreement with BGG prior to the military operation, which was already in an advanced planning stage. Negotiations between BGG and Israeli officials were ongoing in October 2008, 2–3 months prior to the commencement of the military operation in December 2008.

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• Subsequent to the death of the president of PNA, the disconnect between the West Bank and Gaza and the three Israeli military operations in Gaza, Israel established de facto control over Gaza’s offshore natural gas reserves. 

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• A new territorial arrangement emerged as a result of Israeli military operation in Gaza in December 2008, including militarization of the entire Gaza coastline and the confiscation of Palestinian natural gas fields, under Israeli sovereignty over Gaza’s maritime areas.

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• Despite the annexation of the offshore Gazan gas fields and the discovery of others in Israel, it was not guaranteed that the resources would reach the market. There was no favorable investment climate and neither any predictable regulatory framework; two things that created major concern amongst the investors. Moreover, many international stakeholders were concerned that stalling production and creating an inhospitable business environment would hinder regional cooperation in gas production, which depends on the large Israeli finds.

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Timeline of EU & Natural Gas Reserves

(Pre Russia - Ukraine Conflict in 2022)

USA Proposal

Project Shelved

Rekindling Interests

Southern Gas Corridor

Cutting Ties

Discovery

USA proposes natural gas subsea pipeline from Turkmenistan. Russia and Iran oppose it.

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Submarine pipeline project is shelved.

Russia-Ukraine gas dispute rekindles interest in the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.

EU proposes a project as an alternative supply route to Gasprom monopoly to European Union markets.�

BGG cuts off ties with Israel and Shell takes over (BGG merges with Shell)

UN report by UNCTAD on the potential of Palestine’s natural gas and oil reserves

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2019

Timeline of EU & Natural Gas Reserves (Pre Russia- Ukraine Conflict in 2022)

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1996: Natural gas subsea pipeline from Turkmenistan proposed by the USA. Russia and Iran oppose it.

�2000: Submarine pipeline project shelved 

�January 2006: Russia-Ukraine gas dispute rekindles interest in the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project was rekindled.

�2013–2014: An EU proposal generally named the Southern Gas Corridor project kindled interest in the Trans + Caspian pipeline as an alternative supply route to Gazprom (Russian owned multinational energy corporation) monopoly to European Union markets. The project was heavily criticized by Russia and Iran, previously significant transit countries for Turkmen gas and current competitors. 

�2018: BGG cuts off ties with Israel and Shell takes over (BGG merges with Shell)

�2019: UN report by UNCTAD on the potential of Palestine’s natural gas and oil reserves

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After the discovery of natural gas reserves in the Oslo II proposed territory of Gaza, UNICTAD prepared a detailed report on the potential of those fields as well as the challenges that came along with harvesting it.

Salient Points of UNICTAD in Context of Israel-Palestine Conflict

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• The UNCTAD report on ‘The Unrealized Potential of Palestinian Oil and Gas reserves’ sheds light on the disputes and tensions involving oil and natural gas that cannot be separated from the political context that surrounds them. It also highlighted the “coincidences” involving a number of important political developments in the region from the period when the natural gas discoveries were made. (Such as the 1999-2008 timeline given before; the regional political turmoil that followed the outbreak of the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, etc.)

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• It pointed out the geographic and economic expanse of the  undiscovered oil and natural gas in Occupied Palestinian Territory.  The Levant Basin Province encompasses approximately 83,000 km² of the Eastern Mediterranean. The area is bounded to the east by the Levant Transform Zone, to the north by the Tartus Fault, to the northwest by the Eratosthenes Seamount, to the west and southwest by the Nile Delta Cone Province boundary, and to the south by the limit of compressional structures in the Sinai. USGS estimated a mean (average) of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil, and a mean of 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas in the Levant Basin Province.

This means that this basin is one of the most important natural gas resources in the world. �

• The report also brought to the light the position Israel occupied in the eyes of the international community. The UN recognizes Israel as a belligerent occupant, which the Supreme Court of Israel agrees with. Under international law, a State is not given the right to deplete the territory of its resources and other property and assets it occupies at will. In fact, an occupant may only use the same to meet the requirements of the local population. However, a belligerent occupant also bears a legal obligation to mitigate the negative consequences of illegal acts.

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Salient Points of UNICTAD in Context of Israel-Palestine Conflict (Cont.)

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In fact, according to the Hague Regulations:

• The occupying power must respect the laws in force in the occupied territory, unless they constitute a threat to its security or an obstacle to the application of the international law of occupation.
• The destruction or seizure of enemy property is prohibited, unless absolutely required by military necessity during the conduct of hostilities

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Clearly, two scenarios were needed for Israel to access the Gazan gas fields and make them marketable for their own benefit:

• A greater demand for their fuel supply
• A “terror threat” they could subjugate with military aggression in order to annex the region.

Both these conditions were the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2022.

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Timeline On the EU & the Russian-Ukraine Conflict of 2022

Search for Alternative Gas Supply to EU & Israel’s Role

Southern Gas Corridor began operating

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2022

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2022

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Tentative agreement of PA and Egypt to develop gas fields

Gaza protests: “Our Gas is Our Right”

Disputes b/w Israel & Lebanon over Karish gas field

Turkey-Israel gas line is proposed

Search for alternate energy resources for EU begin

Russia invades Ukraine

Israel sees 50% increase in royalties from gas exports

Israel starts genocide in Gaza in name of fighting Hamas

Israel awards 12 licenses to 6 companies

Timeline On the EU & the Russian-Ukraine Conflict of 2022

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December 2020: The Southern Gas Corridor began operating, creating an opportunity for off take of gas from a putative Trans Caspian gas pipeline.

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2021: The PA signed a memorandum of understanding with Egypt to develop the Gaza gas field, along with necessary infrastructure. But this wasn’t enough, as Cairo still needed to get a green light from Israel to get the project up and running. 

Meanwhile in Gaza, protests took place. Billboards and banners with the caption "Our Gas is Our Right" were put up, as Lebanon signed a maritime deal with Israel that could unlock its own gas riches in the Mediterranean Sea. 

Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told MEE, "We are following up on all developments related to the gas issue and the agreements." He added, "Our people's right to benefit from its natural resources and gas is guaranteed in all international laws and resolutions."

�24 February 2022: Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine. This led to an energy crisis as imports from Russia on oil and natural gas went down.

�2022: The Russian invasion of Ukraine made Europe more determined to find alternatives to its energy supplies. During the resultant energy crisis after many European countries stopped their energy deals with Russia, gas deliveries via the SGC to Europe increased by more than 40 percent; from around 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2021 to 11.4 bcm in 2022, going above the TAP pipeline’s nominal capacity of 10 bcm. The SGC’s share in total EU gas imports was 3.4 percent in 2022 up from 2.4 percent in 2021.

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Timeline On the EU & the Russian-Ukraine Conflict of 2022

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March 29, 2022 (reported by Reuters):  A Turkey-Israel gas pipeline is discussed as one of Europe's alternatives to Russian energy supplies. The idea, first conceived years ago, is to build a subsea pipeline from Turkey to Israel's largest offshore natural gas field, Leviathan. Gas would flow to Turkey and on to southern European neighbors looking to diversify away from Russia. According to reports, Israel and Turkey were looking to put a decade of diplomatic impasses, usually over Israeli-Palestinian issues, behind them. 

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May 2022: The pipeline would run 500-550 km and cost up to 1.5 billion to build, according to Israeli officials, making it more manageable than the 6 billion euro pipeline EastMed proposed to connect Israel with Cyprus, Greece and Italy.

�11 June, 2022: Disputes begin between Israel and Lebanon after Energean’s (London based international hydrocarbon exploration and production company) floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit to the disputed waters to develop the Karish gas field for Israel. 

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25 August, 2022: Israel sees a 50 percent increase in royalties from gas exports in 2022 buoyed by record-high global prices, as Europe experiences a looming energy crunch in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Additionally, the country's gas production also surged more than 20 percent since the first half of the year, with the Israeli government planning to ramp up exports even more in a bid to meet growing demand from Europe. 

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Timeline On the EU & the Russian-Ukraine Conflict of 2022

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2022:  Egypt imports a record amount of gas from Israel as it seeks to establish itself as an international energy hub and keep its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports at near record levels. Moreover, Egypt becomes a key player as Europe seeks to mitigate a crisis in Russia's natural gas supply since it holds the sole connection for Israeli gas to make its way to Europe.

Israel sends its gas through the Arab Gas Pipeline, which was initially built to transport natural gas to Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon from Egypt. However, since 2019 the flow in the gas pipeline has been reversed, with Israel now feeding the route.

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5 May, 2023: The Israeli government holds secret talks with the Palestinian Authority in a bid to develop a gas reservoir located about 36 km from the shores of Gaza (source: Israel Channel 13 news)

The Israeli government held internal talks last year on developing the gas field off the coast of Gaza. Talks were renewed more recently following US mediation. Also, announcing the move on the Gaza Marine project, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said progress would hinge on "preserving the State of Israel's security and diplomatic needs".

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18 June, 2023 (Reuters) - Israel gave preliminary approval for the development of a gas field off the Gaza Strip on Sunday while saying it would require security coordination with the Palestinian Authority along with neighboring Egypt as a sponsor as Palestinian Authority is unable to develop the gas field alone as legally only states are able to.

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4 Sept, 2023: Netanyahu meets with Cypriot and Greek counterparts in Nicosia, whose government wants Israel to pump gas to a terminal in Cyprus where it would be liquefied for shipment onward. 

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7 Oct, 2023: Israel begins it’s genocidal operation on Gaza

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30 Oct, 2023: Israel announces 12 licenses have been awarded to six companies, including British multinational oil and gas firm BP plc and Italian energy giant Eni, to explore and discover additional offshore natural gas fields.

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Conclusion:

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Until now, it is established that Israel by September 2023 had made itself indispensable to the EU’s efforts to find alternative sources of fuel. The next thing to do was to annex the whole region so that a particular percentage of the profits wouldn’t be siphoned off by the PA.

The incident of October 7th, 2023, perhaps is too coincidental when one considers the entire timeline prior to it. 

It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that this act of aggression is very much inspired by the natural gas fields found off coast after seeing this timeline. It is similar to Israel’s brutal attack on Gaza in 2008, time on only on a broader scale, because unlike before Israel has the backing of the international community and staunch promise of their investments.

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Hurting this particular investment opportunity might be the best way to force Israel into a ceasefire.

Similar to when in 1973 the OAPEC (the Organization of the Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries)with the Arab King Faisal proclaimed an oil embargo targeted at Israel supporting nations during the Yom Kippur War. It ultimately led to Israel withdrawing its troops from the Suez Canal.

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Remember