ZEP Talyer for Local Convergence under the AAA Recovery Project

The Toolkit

Toolkit

HOW THE PARTICIPATORY PLANNING PROCESS COULD LOOK LIKE IN YOUR AREAS

1. Agenda-setting Introduction of project & ZEP2030; review of local plans* vs. available data¹

2. Common Ground

Prioritization of local recovery issues & identifying their future implications

5. Engagement

Get inputs, feedback & commitment from stakeholders²

4. Co-Creation

Creative brainstorming of potential strategies & solutions, inputs to portfolio of options

3. Scenarios

Creating alternative scenarios of the future & the systems that enable these

1. local plans include PDPFP/CDP, Devolution Transition Plan, COVID19 Recovery Plan
2. process may include community involvement; stakeholder/donor forums; social campaigns

PLANNING WORKSHOP

1^st Local Convergence Meeting

Stakeholder/ Donor Forum

Our Talyer process tries to follow the Systemic Design framework but with a Foresight process at the start instead of other methods (e.g., ethnography, system mapping)

1. Agenda-setting

2. Common Ground

5. Engagement

4. Co-Creation

3. Scenarios

Summary�OUTPUTS OF THE PROCES

1. Agenda-setting Introduction of project & ZEP2030; review of local plans* vs. available data

2. Common Ground

Prioritization of local recovery issues & identifying their future implications

5. Engagement

Get inputs, feedback & commitment from stakeholders

4. Co-Creation

Creative brainstorming of potential strategies & solutions, inputs to portfolio of options

3. Scenarios

Creating alternative scenarios of the future & the systems that enable these

Future Scenarios

Portfolio of Options

Local Situationer

PARTICIPATORY RECOVERY

PLAN / AGENDA

Priority Changes/SDGs

LOCAL

CONVERGENCE

ROADMAP

• Participatory planning follows the ZEP Local Convergence process to achieve the conditions of Collective Impact
• Innovation tools to enhance the process:
• Foresight to help establish common understanding & agenda for future
• Data innovations to provide shared basis for participatory agenda & impact
• Systemic design to facilitate co-creation of solutions to change system

See reference slides about the methods

UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY

Composed of 140 non-government entities in 430 cities & municipalities nationwide.

A civil society-led movement that aims to end extreme poverty by 2030

Core Process:

ZEP LOCAL CONVERGENCE

Phase

Objective

Scope of Participatory Recovery Planning for all local convergences particularly for the 9 new areas:

• Map & convene local coalition
• Engage local government
• Establish a common agenda for socioeconomic recovery
• Establish comm mechanisms

Emphasis for existing 6 local convergences:

• Deepen partnership & collab with local government
• Establish linkages among ongoing programs of network
• Mobilize support & resources for convergence’s plans

(adapted from Hanleybrown, Kania & Kramer, 2012)

How collective impact conditions may be pursued in the ZEP local convergence process

Objective: convene potential members of the local convergence or multi-stakeholder network and identify priority issues of concern that should be addressed in the participatory recovery planning.

1. Convening & Agenda-Setting

What should happen:

• Identify potential local convergence members and convene them in a meeting
• Introduce the participatory recovery project and the ZEP2030 movement
• Understand the current situation of poverty and SDG attainment in the locality through data and dialogues with resource persons
• Map the local government’s current plans and members’ efforts to address poverty, meet the SDGs, and recover from COVID19
• Agree on priority issues to be carried forward in the planning process (optional)

• COVID Pulse PH which used chatbots as tool for data gathering on COVID19 impact on poor families
• Poverty Estimation by Geospatial Machine Learning which enables granular poverty measurement and monitoring at scale using satellite images and other proxy datasets.

Available Tools: Poverty Data

• SDG Dashboard: Interactive SDG dashboard which features city and municipal progress in at least one indicator for each of the 17 SDGs using publicly available data.
• DevLive+: A tool to collect, organize, visualize, and manage local data & information to assess SDG attainment & exposures to climate change risks.

🡪 Implemented in Lanao del Sur (6 municipalities), San Fernando City.

Available Tools: Local SDG Data

Available Tools: COVID-19 Data

• FASSSTER: data hub that can support real-time decision-making for the COVID-19 crisis through monitoring and modeling health, socio-economic & security data.
• Other DOH Dashboards on COVID19 & Vaccination Data: real time information on COVID case trends, testing, hospital utilization, and vaccination

Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler

Tools and References

Presentations:

• Presentation on the AAA Recovery Project
• Presentation on ZEP2030
• Poverty & COVID19 situationer

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References

• ZEP Toolkit – sections on building provincial coalition and engaging local stakeholders.

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Templates:

• Issues Map [Template]
• ZEP2030 mapping of local convergence projects and initiatives [Sample Map]

Objective: prioritize the local recovery issues, identify the signals or driving factors that affect these, and identify their future implications.

2. Common Ground

What should happen:

• Map and prioritize issues to be carried forward in the participatory planning (if not yet fully done during 1^st convening).
• Identify the driving factors and weak signals that could influence how these priority issues could play out in the future (at the minimum up to 2030; ideally up to 2040).
• Plot the potential future trajectories of these issues given the weak signals and driving factors at play.

Through this issue map, the local convergence (in the first meeting or the first workshop day) can select the priority sub-issues for COVID19 recovery in your locality.

• For the first 20 minutes, ask participants to write issues or factors on recovery in your locality according to the dimensions shown (PESTLE+I, i.e., Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Envi, Institutional)
• Another 20 minutes can be taken to ask some participants to talk about what they wrote.
• For another 10 minutes, ask participants to vote for their top 5 issues. Take note of the issues with the most votes. It is recommended to cluster sticky notes first before voting.

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Exercise: Issue Map

Using the futures triangle, unbundle the factors influencing COVID recovery from the perspective of the future, present, and past

• In the first 20 minutes, visualize the desired future and identify the drivers or factors (“pulls”) that make these happen.
• In the next 20 minutes, identify the drivers and trends (“pushes”) that are happening now which could shape the future.
• In the next 20 minutes, describe the barriers to the changes that we want (“weights”).
• In the last 20 minutes, discuss and identify the plausible future(s) that emerge(s)
• Option to conduct this exercise as a ”world café” (i.e., 3 groups going around and taking turns to address each corner of the triangle)
• Option to categorize sticky notes by PESTLE

Exercise: Futures Triangle

PULL OF THE FUTURE

Future that we see & want; drivers/factors that facilitate these, competing images

Barriers to change, what led to the status quo and what maintains it

What is happening or is popular now, mainstream tech, policies

Signals of change

Risk of regression

Trade-offs

PUSH OF THE PRESENT

WEIGHT OF THE PAST

PLAUSIBLE FUTURE(S)

Anchor: recovery of locality from COVID19 socioeconomic impacts

PESTLE FRAME

Your local convergence may want to take this optional exercise to further unbundle the future implications of your key issues, or to validate the futures that you identified (e.g., if your group has disagreements),or to extend these further out into the future.

• In the first 10-20 minutes, breakout groups firm up the topic or issues they are tackling. They then identify one certain trend, event, or change resulting from this topic or issue.
• In the next 20 minutes, assuming this change is true, then identify the immediate impacts or direct implications of this change.
• In the next 20 minutes, identify second-order impacts (i.e., resulting from the first layer).
• Take the last 10-20 minutes to discuss patterns, ideas, and implications that emerge.

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Exercise: Futures Wheel

(Optional)

Tools and References

Presentations:

• Overview of Foresight
• ZEP Key Issues and their Futures, 2021

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References

• UNDP Manual on Foresight
• NESTA Publication on Participatory Futures

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Templates

• Issue Map [Template]
• Futures Triangle [Template]
• Futures Wheel [Template]

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Objective: create alternative scenarios of the future—desired or otherwise—and define the underlying systems that would enable these scenarios.

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3. Scenarios

What should happen:

• Define 2-3 critical uncertainties—or high impact and high uncertainty factors—that would influence an issue’s potential future.
• Envision ~4 possible scenarios of recovery in the locality (including status quo/ undesired and desired futures) and the underlying system(s) that enable these.
• Stress test the current plans and initiatives of the local government as well as of key stakeholders against these four scenarios.

There could be infinitely many scenarios of your locality’s development in the future, but we want to limit these to the most material ones. This simplified 2x2 Scenarios process could be useful in focusing the convergence on 4 scenarios:

• Two critical factors have already been selected: (a) COVID19 Pandemic situation; (b) government openness (which the local convergence could further define). Option: local convergence selects different sets of critical factors (see next page).
• These two factors are located on a matrix (see left), creating four (4) scenarios. For the next hour, the participants discuss how each scenario plays out based on the other issues, signals, and drivers identified in the previous exercises (est. 30 minutes to 1 hour).
• Four breakout groups will then be created, each with an assigned scenario, to flesh these out into a narrative in the form of “news of the future” (see next exercise)

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Exercise: 2x2 Scenarios

Critical Factor A:

COVID19 Pandemic

Critical Factor B:

Government Openness

3. Pick the most high-impact and high uncertainty factor from the list. In doing so, you may map these factors in the impact-uncertainty matrix below. You may also vote on the factors that matter.

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4. The factors should not be correlated (they should not move together / influence each other much), else only two of the scenarios will be plausible.

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Optional: If you want to change the X and Y factors

1. Your local convergence may pick from the following set of critical factors based on what’s most important (impact) and uncertain (could go either way, positive or negative) in your locality.

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2. You may (i) expound on or modify these factors to suit your local context (ii) add an uncertainty that may not be reflected in the list but is viewed to be important to your locality.

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Articulate the four scenarios identified from the 2x2 scenario process through a hypothetical frontpage news from 2030.

• Each group takes 1 hour to formulate the future news story, starting with a catchy headline and summary paragraph.
• The body the news story should answer the following questions:
• So What? What insights have emerged?
• Now What? What does this mean for us now?
• Then What? What might we do about it?
• Feel free to be creative by adding pictures and other visual elements.

Exercise: News from Tomorrow

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Tools and References

Presentations:

• Overview of Foresight

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References

• UNDP Manual on Foresight
• Introduction to Systems Thinking

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Templates:

• 2x2 Scenarios Matrix [Template]
• News of the Future [Template]
• Iceberg System Map [Template]

Objective: co-create an agenda and pathways towards the desired future through a portfolio of potential strategies and solutions for recovery.

4. Co-Creation

What should happen:

• Define the key shifts or changes that would need to happen in the system in order to ensure the desired future.
• Optionally, define envisioned targets for COVID recovery and for key SDGs by 2030
• Assemble a portfolio of options—of ongoing initiatives or programs as well as new ideas or innovations—that should be created and implemented to try to shift the system.
• Identify the stakeholders who are best positioned and are most willing to steer the creation and roll-out of key initiatives.

The iceberg model may be used to open the co-creation process to help participants recall and synthesize discussions from the common ground and scenarios sessions. The iceberg model is used to understand the systemic factors that enable development issues issues.

• In about 40 mins to 1 hour, discuss in breakout groups for each scenario:
• Events – what are the specific events that we usually see or hear?
• Patterns – what are the events that recur or are happening over time?
• Structures – what are the relationships or factors which influence the repeating behavior?
• Mental Models – what are the mindsets, cultures, or social norms or relationships that stimulate this repeating behavior?
• For another 20-30 minutes, discuss insights emerging from the system map, root causes of issues that need to be addressed, etc.

Exercise: Iceberg System Map

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What needs to happen to change the system? In 30 minutes to 1 hour, identify the “from-to” shifts that need to happen:

• Coming from the 2x2 scenario process (or iceberg model), identify three (3) to five (5) systemic changes need to happen to achieve the desired state (from-to).
• Why are these changes necessary? Are these “deep” changes or just at the surface level? Ideally, these should be at the level of structures and mental models in the iceberg.
• What needs to happen to effect these deep changes? What can these deep changes make possible in turn?

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Exercise: “From-To” Shifts

Taking off from the key systems shifts identified, reimagine how the system should look like and function. If the “from-to” shifts are achieved how would the system change? In the next 1 hour:

• Locate the 3-5 key shifts in the desired-state system map (institutions, economic structures, culture, or practices).
• Then identify things that need to be done (policies, strategies, technologies, projects, relationships, etc.) to make this shifts happen. Option to assign categories to these actions before or after the exercise.
• Identify the key actors and stakeholders who will be needed to affect the changes, or who will be most affected (positive or negative).
• Identify the long-term (external) trends that need to be accounted for (as givens).

Exercise: Desired System Map

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The portfolio of options is a visual and narrative of the strategies and interventions that need to be undertaken or advocated for by the local convergence in order to promote AAA recovery.

• The desired state system map could very well represent the portfolio (previous slide). A single system map may need to be consolidated post-workshop by the lead local convenor, with an accompanying write-up, for validation by the members.
• Option to present the portfolio as a matrix:
• The vertical axis would represent the 3-5 systems shifts consolidated from the groups
• The horizontal axis represents priority SDGs, development stages, or governance processes or roles, etc. (local convenors have flexibility on how to define the categories)

Exercise: Portfolio of Options

Tools and References

Presentations:

• Overview of Systemic Design

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References

• Introduction to Systemic Design
• Systemic Design Toolkit
• Systemic Design in UNDP

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Templates:

• From-To Shifts [Template]
• Desired System Map [Template]
• Portfolio of Options [Template]

Objective: engage local government, other stakeholders, and communities to secure feedback on and support to the participatory plan or agenda.

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5. Engagement

What should happen:

• Present the results of the planning process to the local government and other key stakeholders to solicit feedback & support
• Communicate and engage the broader public to contribute to the participatory plan and support its implementation.
• Circle back to the local convergence to incorporate feedback and inputs to the plan, and craft roadmap of next steps.

The local convergence is envisioned to be the vehicle for advocating for collective action on sustainable recovery. What can it do over the short- to medium-term to strengthen its collective impact for AAA recovery?

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After presenting the participatory recovery plan or agenda to stakeholders, securing their commitment or interest, and taking in their suggestions for recovery, the convergence should meet to improve the recovery plan and set plans for further advocating for and monitoring it. It should formulate a roadmap for further action, along the collective impact conditions, for at the minimum the next 1.5 years, but ideally the next 3 years (coinciding with the new LGU term).

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Exercise: Roadmap

Tools and References

Presentations:

• Presentation on the AAA Recovery Project
• Presentation on ZEP2030

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References

• Collective Impact
• ZEP Toolkit – sections on building provincial coalition and engaging local stakeholders.

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Templates:

• Local Convergence Roadmap [Template]

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Talyer Toolkit Templates:�Go to this link in Google Drive�

About the Methods & Tools

Composed of 140 non-government entities in 430 cities & municipalities nationwide.

A civil society-led movement that aims to end extreme poverty by 2030

Core Process:

ZEP LOCAL CONVERGENCE

Phase

Objective

Scope of Participatory Recovery Planning for all local convergences particularly for the 9 new areas:

• Map & convene local coalition
• Engage local government
• Establish a common agenda for socioeconomic recovery
• Establish comm mechanisms

Emphasis for existing 6 local convergences:

• Deepen partnership & collab with local government
• Establish linkages among ongoing programs of network
• Mobilize support & resources for convergence’s plans

• The main approach underpinning the ZEP local convergence process
• Emphasizes that systemic issues like poverty require multiple actors—beyond the usual suspects—to act cohesively
• Five conditions characterize a collective impact movement (see figure)

COLLECTIVE IMPACT & LOCAL CONVERGENCE

(Hanleybrown, Kania & Kramer, 2012)

(Hanleybrown, Kania & Kramer, 2012)

(adapted from Hanleybrown, Kania & Kramer, 2012)

How collective impact conditions may be pursued in the ZEP local convergence process

1. Collective Impact by Kania & Cramer
2. Channeling Change
3. Understanding the Value of Backbone Organizations
4. Centering Equity in Collective Impact
5. Readiness Assessment for Collective Impact

References on Collective Impact

• Collection of social innovation methods & tools used at different points of the local convergence process.
• For Participatory Recovery Planning, tools to be used aim to enhance common understanding of issues and co-creation of solutions
• ZEP Toolkit: repository of guides & tools [ https://zeropovertyph.net/zep2030-ph-toolkit ]

ZEP Talyer

Innovation Tools to Enhance Local Convergence

Quarterly Cadence for ZEP Local Convergence Sprints:

• progress revisited
• convergence goals & activities set
• learning needs & support identified & addressed

Modifications for Participatory Recovery Planning:

• Compressed timeline of a quarter sprint: March to April, May to June
• More frequent check ins & reporting

Delivery: ZEP Talyer Sprints

Additional Check-Ins & Regular Reporting

ZEP Talyer Tools for Participatory Recovery Planning

Foresight

Enhance planning for recovery by developing possible scenarios of the future.

Data

Tap available evidence to gauge the baseline situation & use new tools to fill gaps.

Systemic Design

Participative creation & testing of solutions to address key issues in the system.

• Systemic & participatory tools for gathering intelligence, strategic planning, & innovative policy & solutions design
• Assumes that there are multiple potential futures (vs. single future to predict) & multiple scenarios that require different strategies

FORESIGHT

To support formulation of common agenda for local recovery

(UNDP Foresight Manual, 2018)

(UNDP Foresight Manual, 2018)

(UNDP Foresight Manual, 2018)

• Sensing how current issues are shaped in various dimensions (political, economic, socio-cultural, environmental, etc.) and prioritizing key drivers of an issue
• Which of these issues are signals that could become trends and eventually drivers that shape the future?

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Identifying issues & drivers of the future

• As opposed to “forecasting” based on sophisticated data models or expert opinion, participatory methods use collective insight and creativity
• Multiple scenarios can be produced to demonstrate what could happen given certain conditions; and what needs to happen for the ideal scenario to come true.

Collaborative Futures

1. UNDP Manual on Foresight
2. Our Futures By the People For the People by NESTA
3. Six Pillars of Foresight
4. Aurecon Futures Playbook

References on Foresight & Futures Thinking

• ZEP-UNDP Collaboration has produced new tools and methods to gather & use data on poverty.
• UNDP Pintig Lab is a multi-stakeholder network of data scientists, epidemiologists, economists, etc. that synthesize data from the public and private sector into policy recommendations.

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DATA INNOVATIONS

To enhance shared measurement of results

• COVID Pulse PH which used chatbots as tool for data gathering on COVID19 impact on poor families
• Poverty Estimation by Geospatial Machine Learning which enables granular poverty measurement and monitoring at scale using satellite images and other proxy datasets.

Poverty Data

• SDG Dashboard: Interactive SDG dashboard which features city and municipal progress in at least one indicator for each of the 17 SDGs using publicly available data.
• DevLive+: A tool to collect, organize, visualize, and manage local data & information to assess SDG attainment & exposures to climate change risks.

🡪 Implemented in Lanao del Sur (6 municipalities), San Fernando City.

Local SDG Data

COVID-19 Data

• FASSSTER: data hub that can support real-time decision-making for the COVID-19 crisis through monitoring and modeling health, socio-economic & security data.
• Other DOH Dashboards on COVID19 & Vaccination Data: real time information on COVID case trends, testing, hospital utilization, and vaccination

Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler

1. Poverty
1. Poverty visualization 2018 vs 2022
2. Poverty dossiers (based on 2018)
3. COVID Pulse PH
2. Local SDGs
• UNDP Local SDG Dashboard
• DevLive+
• PSA SDG Portal
3. COVID19
• FASSSTER
• Command & Control Center
4. Mindanao & BARMM-Specific
• SEIA (MinDA, BARMM)
• BPDA Tracker

References on UNDP’s Data Innovations

• Emphasizes interventions that act on key leverage points in the system: those which do not only address symptoms but root causes
• As opposed to single “big” solutions, promotes a portfolio approach that entails multiple interventions implemented by multiple actors

SYSTEMIC DESIGN

Identifying & co-creating mutually reinforcing strategies

• Success is not 100% certain. Systemic change requires acting on various leverage points.
• Multiple parallel experiments that are based on different and competing hypotheses of what works & what doesn’t.

Portfolio of Options

1. Introduction to Systems Thinking
2. Introduction to Systemic Design Tool Kit
3. Systems Thinking and Design Thinking
4. Systemic Design Framework
5. Portfolio of Approach
6. From System Thinking to System Doing

References on Systems Thinking & Systemic Design

Poverty Data

H1, 2021 Poverty Data: Cohort 1

(Existing Local Convergences)

Source: PSA Poverty Data_1st Sem 2021

H1, 2021 Poverty Data: Cohort 2

(Prospective Local Convergences)

Source: PSA Poverty Data_1st Sem 2021

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