Amplification Mechanisms of Disinformation in �Nuclear Emergencies

Seungtae Han

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Internet Governance Project

The Jimmy and Rosalyn Cater School of Public Policy

Georgia Institute of Technology

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Research Design

Key Question

How does disinformation gain influence during nuclear emergencies?

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• What structural mechanisms transform false claims into “credible” information?
• How do these mechanisms operate across different media entities?
• How can we counter these amplification pathways?

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Jowett & O’Donnell’s Propaganda Framework

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LSM (Legitimating Source Model)

Authority and credibility building through source validation

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Research Scope

• 568 propaganda instances
• Multiple media platforms
• Cross-national analysis

Case Studies

• Disinformation surrounding Fukushima Daiichi

Nuclear Power Plant’s treated water release

The Central Thesis

Moving from “what is false?” to “how does falsehood gain power?”

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“The amplification mechanism, not content sophistication, determines disinformation impact”

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Key Insight

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• Simple falsehoods with proper amplification networks gain more traction than sophisticated false contents.
• Understanding structural pathways is more critical than detecting and identifying individual disinformation contents.
• The Legitimating Source Model (LSM) reveals how false information gains credibility through systematic reinforcement.
• To counter disinformation effectively, we must target the amplification infrastructure, not chase individual messages.

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Legitimating Source Model (LSM)

Core Concept

• Uses authoritative sources to legitimize messages
• Creates networks of mutual reinforcement
• Builds credibility through cross-validation

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Key Mechanisms

• Source (P) → Initial Message (M1)
• Validating Source (P2) → Modified Message (M2)
• Final Message (M3) with enhanced credibility

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How Disinformation Gains Credibility

National Emergency Information Environment

Vulnerabilities:

– Information Asymmetry: State/operator has greater access to critical data.

– Time Pressure: rapid decisions with incomplete information.

– Public Anxiety: heightened emotions reduce critical thinking.

– Technical Complexity: easy to mislead on technical/scientific information.

– Trust Deficit: crisis raises skepticisms of official sources.

The perfect storm:

Crisis + Uncertainty + Technical Complexity + Trust Deficit

= Ideal conditions for LSM exploitation

Nuclear emergencies exemplify these conditions at their extreme

Amplification Case 1

The Mutual Reinforcement Pattern

Actors:

P1: Civic Group (P1.1) + Legacy Media (P1.2)

P2: State Media and Government

R: Publics in East Asia

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How It Worked:

1. Initial Seeding: Civic group publishes allegation about international organization [M1]

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2. Cross-Border Legitimation: State media in neighboring region picks up story, reframes as "civic groups raise concerns..." [M1→M2]

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3.Distribution:

P2 directly broadcasts to public (R) [M2]

P1 media cites P2's coverage as "international confirmation" [M2→M3]

Amplification Case 2

The Echo Chamber Effect

Actors:

P1: Government (P1.1) + Legacy Media (P1.2)

P2: Legacy Media (P2.1) + Social Media (P2.2)

R1/R2: Public A and Public B

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How It Worked:

1. Official Claims: Government makes comparative claims, media amplifies [M1]
2. Cross-Border Echo: Neighboring region's media responds with analysis [M1→M2]
3. Recursive Amplification:
1. P1 cites P2 coverage as validation [M2→M3→R1]
2. P2 continues evolution [M4→M5→R2]
3. Each iteration adds "verification"

Observed Amplification Mechanism

What Makes LSM Effective?

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1. Institutional Credibility > Content Sophistication

• Source reputation matters more than message complexity
• Simple falsehoods from "credible" sources spread faster

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2. Traditional Media's Legitimizing Role

• Still viewed as more trustworthy than social media
• Critical node in amplification networks

3. Alignment with Existing Beliefs

• Confirmation bias accelerates acceptance
• Pre-existing narratives provide fertile ground

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4. Contextual Legitimacy

• Messages that "make sense" in current context
• Emotional resonance trumps factual accuracy

Key Implications

1. Chasing individual messages = treating symptoms, not the disease

• 568 cases show: each debunked claim spawns multiple variants
• By the time you fact-check M1, M2 and M3 are already circulating

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2. Amplification mechanism is the Target

• Disinformation's power comes from the network, not the message
• Simple falsehoods + strong amplification > sophisticated disinformation alone
• Multiple voices saying false > single authoritative source

3. Speed and Scale Require Structural Response

• Traditional reactive approaches can't match digital amplification speed
• Proactive infrastructure beats reactive fact-checking

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4. Trust Networks Can Be Built and Deployed

• If propagandists can create LSM networks, so can legitimate actors
• Key: establish your legitimating sources BEFORE crisis hits

Strategic Counter-LSM Approach

Neutralizing Amplification Mechanisms is the key.

"Fight networks with networks, not individual messages"

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1. Disrupt Feedback Loops

• Identify and expose circular citations
• Real-time network analysis
• Preemptive credibility warnings

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2. Build Alternative LSM Networks

• Government + Academia + Civil Society + Media
• Create legitimate verification chains
• Proactive information ecosystems

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3. Strengthen Source Diversity

• Multiple independent channels
• Cross-verification protocols
• Transparency in sourcing

Practical Implementation

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1. Multi-Layer Verification System

• Government → Academic institutions → Professional associations → Media
• Each layer independently validates and amplifies factual information
• Example: IAEA findings → University nuclear experts → Science journalists → Public

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3. Platform-Specific Amplification

• Traditional media: Regular briefings with science journalists, not just crisis moments
• Social media: Build networks of trusted experts who can quickly share/validate
• Academic channels: Pre-established expert panels ready to provide rapid commentary

Building Counter-Amplification Infrastructure

Create Your Own LSM Networks:

2. Geographic Counter-Networks

• Establish partnerships with credible voices in neighboring regions
• Pre-position translated fact sheets with regional partners
• Counter cross-border legitimation with cross-border truth networks

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THANK YOU!

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