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RADmosquito

A Risk Advisory Dashboard for Aedes Mosquito-borne Disease Response

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Motivation

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Existing Predictive Models

MIDAS and DiSARM models predict mosquito populations and infection risk

  • Account for environmental, travel, and lifestyle factors

Existing models are ineffective for governmental and civilian use

  • Complex
  • No short-term predictions
  • Low resolution and accuracy

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Need

A user-friendly way to predict disease transmission risk that enables cost-effective resource allocation

and targeted response plans

Design criteria:

  • Accurate within 100 km
  • Predicts risk within 12 months from current date
  • Aids effective resource allocation and public action

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Target Users

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  • Public Health Entities: CDC, WHO
  • NGOs and Governmental Development Agencies
  • General public

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Integrating Data to Create a Predictive Model

Geography and Climate Data

Aedes habitat and population

Social media and Search trends

Incidence: Current and History

Travel Connections

Advisory

Risk Map

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Prediction Map and Recommendation System

Interactive website with a publically-accessible main interface

  • County-specific risk prediction over time
  • Civilian strategies to reduce infection risk

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Log-in option for government agencies

  • Recommended policies according to risk strata
  • Examine how risk levels change over time with selected policies

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Project Validation and Scaling

Develop and train model on national and international datasets

Test platform in Southern California

  • Implement pilot platform in Los Angeles County

Add more value to implementation in the US through collaboration with educators

Expand model to Central and South America and Africa

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RADmosquito

Team: Adam White, Jacob Feldgoise,

Lauren Watkins, Emma Zorensky

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Appendix

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“Surveillance Systems to Facilitate Malaria Elimination,” Global Health Group UCSF, 2014

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Civilian Actions

LOW:

  • Residents should get rid of standing water and unused containers

MEDIUM:

  • Use insect repellents or wear long clothing when spending time outside in the morning and evening
  • Use screens on open windows and doors

HIGH and ACTIVE:

  • Consider treating clothes with mosquito-repellents (permethrin)
  • Avoid going outside in the morning and evening
  • Consider using mosquito nets around beds or porches

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Governmental Actions

LOW:

  • Contact local government agencies for proactive elimination of standing water
  • Develop action plans and communication pathways

MEDIUM: Contact local government agencies to

  • Survey mosquito type and susceptibility
  • Use larvicides
  • Remove larval habitats and breeding sites
  • Engage public through education activities

HIGH:

  • Contact news and weather agencies to increase public awareness
  • Contact local government agencies to implement targeted control strategies
  • Encourage outdoor residual spraying

ACTIVE:

  • Contact news and weather agencies to increase public awareness
  • Issue travel advisories
  • Activate response team to contain infection
  • Notify CDC and State Public Health departments
  • Area-wide insecticide spraying

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Risk Levels

Definition

Policy Level Recommendations

Public Outreach Recommendations

Active

Model score of ≥75 with active reported cases of Aeden-borne disease

Declaration of active transmission site; Area wide treatment with insecticide; consider truck or aerial spraying;

Increase public communication using major media channels/SMS alerts, travel advisories

High

Model score of less > 75 with few reported cases Aeden-borne disease

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Implement targeted control strategies, outdoor residual spraying

Medium

Model score of 25-75 with 0 reported cases Aeden-borne disease

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Survey and map mosquito presence and type, use of larvicides, insecticide resistance testing

Encourage removal of larval habitats and breeding sites, community cleanup campaigns

Low

Model output score of < 25 and 0 reported cases of 0 active reported cases Aeden-borne disease

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Plan surveys, public education, and vector management strategies for peak mosquito seasons.

Encourage personal protection measures, reduction or elimination breeding sites, removal and disposal of any water holding containers

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Next steps: CDC Science Ambassador Workshop for Educators

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  • Goal to develop lesson plan for middle and high school students
  • Pre-existing Global Health education resource tools created by the CDC - collaborate to develop a case study that leverages our platform and educates about prevention

RADmosquito: Mapping Risk and Taking Action in Your Community

2016