Methodology
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Key Findings
Importance of Probation and Parole Modernization
If providing job opportunities and modernizing probation and parole policies could reduce crime, over 7-in-10 Gen Z adults would support these policies.
If these individuals were aware that a significant portion of people on probation or parole are often incarcerated for technical violations that are not crimes (like, missing a meeting, failing a drug test), by a 34-point margin, they would be more likely to support reforms to the probation and parole system than oppose them.
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Smarter Policy Initiatives
By nearly a 3-to-1 margin, Gen Z adults support the Safer Supervision Act that aims to focus supervision resources on individuals at high risk of reoffending while reducing supervision for lower risk individuals who have demonstrated rehabilitation.
Over two-thirds of Gen Z respondents agree that reforms to probation and parole, including reducing technical violations and providing more rehabilitation services, would help reduce crime.
Importance to Elected Officials
By a staggering 37-point margin, 18-28-year-olds would be more likely to cast a vote for President in this election if the candidates offered more ideas on criminal justice reform and modernizing probation and parole systems.
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General Sentiment
How important is public safety to you?
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Subgroup | Important | Not Important | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 95% | 4% | 91% |
Independent (37%) | 89% | 10% | 79% |
Republican (23%) | 90% | 9% | 81% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 93% | 6% | 87% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 94% | 5% | 89% |
White (43%) | 92% | 7% | 85% |
Black (37%) | 89% | 9% | 80% |
Hispanic (12%) | 90% | 7% | 83% |
Non-white (58%) | 89% | 9% | 80% |
How effective do you believe the current criminal justice system, including probation and parole, is in reducing crime and promoting safety?
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Subgroup | Effective | Not Effective | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 59% | 37% | 22% |
Independent (37%) | 50% | 45% | 4% |
Republican (23%) | 65% | 31% | 34% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 57% | 38% | 18% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 57% | 38% | 19% |
White (43%) | 50% | 45% | 4% |
Black (37%) | 60% | 31% | 29% |
Hispanic (12%) | 61% | 32% | 29% |
Non-white (58%) | 59% | 33% | 26% |
Policy Series
If providing job opportunities and modernizing probation and parole policies could reduce crime, would you support or oppose these policies?
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Subgroup | Support | Oppose | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 82% | 13% | 69% |
Independent (37%) | 73% | 18% | 56% |
Republican (23%) | 67% | 24% | 43% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 75% | 17% | 58% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 76% | 16% | 60% |
White (43%) | 76% | 16% | 60% |
Black (37%) | 68% | 20% | 48% |
Hispanic (12%) | 71% | 18% | 53% |
Non-white (58%) | 68% | 20% | 49% |
Data shows that people on probation or parole often face significant barriers to employment, housing, and education, which can increase their likelihood of reoffending. Given this information, do you believe that:
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Subgroup | Modernize | Make Tougher | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 59% | 31% | 28% |
Independent (37%) | 55% | 31% | 23% |
Republican (23%) | 41% | 45% | -3% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 52% | 35% | 17% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 54% | 34% | 20% |
White (43%) | 53% | 31% | 22% |
Black (37%) | 48% | 35% | 13% |
Hispanic (12%) | 51% | 35% | 16% |
Non-white (58%) | 49% | 34% | 15% |
Did you know that a significant portion of people on probation or parole are often incarcerated for technical violations that are not crimes (like, missing a meeting, failing a drug test)?
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Subgroup | Yes | No | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 53% | 38% | 14% |
Independent (37%) | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Republican (23%) | 52% | 36% | 16% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 52% | 38% | 14% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 52% | 38% | 14% |
White (43%) | 54% | 33% | 21% |
Black (37%) | 49% | 37% | 12% |
Hispanic (12%) | 44% | 42% | 2% |
Non-white (58%) | 46% | 40% | 6% |
Given this information, are you more or less likely to support reforms to the probation and parole system?
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Subgroup | Support | Oppose | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 67% | 22% | 45% |
Independent (37%) | 59% | 24% | 36% |
Republican (23%) | 56% | 30% | 26% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 61% | 25% | 36% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 65% | 21% | 44% |
White (43%) | 62% | 20% | 42% |
Black (37%) | 56% | 27% | 29% |
Hispanic (12%) | 55% | 29% | 25% |
Non-white (58%) | 54% | 27% | 27% |
Did you know that every year, 600,000 people are released from prison face unemployment rates 7x the national average with levels worse than the great depression, with most people on probation making less than $20,000 per year – and that this increases the likelihood they will return to crime?
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Subgroup | Yes | No | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 39% | 52% | -12% |
Independent (37%) | 41% | 47% | -6% |
Republican (23%) | 45% | 43% | 2% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 42% | 47% | -5% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 42% | 47% | -5% |
White (43%) | 40% | 47% | -7% |
Black (37%) | 38% | 48% | -10% |
Hispanic (12%) | 41% | 43% | -2% |
Non-white (58%) | 39% | 46% | -6% |
Research suggests that lengthy probation or parole terms can actually be counterproductive to remaining crime-free, often leading to higher rates of reoffending and reincarceration. Knowing this, would you support or oppose capping the length of time a person can be placed on probation or parole?
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Subgroup | Support | Oppose | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 59% | 29% | 30% |
Independent (37%) | 56% | 26% | 30% |
Republican (23%) | 51% | 37% | 14% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 58% | 27% | 31% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 58% | 27% | 30% |
White (43%) | 52% | 30% | 22% |
Black (37%) | 57% | 26% | 31% |
Hispanic (12%) | 55% | 27% | 29% |
Non-white (58%) | 54% | 27% | 28% |
The Safer Supervision Act is federal legislation that aims to focus supervision resources on individuals at high risk of reoffending while reducing supervision for lower risk individuals who have demonstrated rehabilitation. Do you support reforms like the Safer Supervision Act?
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Subgroup | Support | Oppose | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 73% | 17% | 56% |
Independent (37%) | 64% | 21% | 43% |
Republican (23%) | 56% | 31% | 26% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 65% | 22% | 43% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 67% | 20% | 48% |
White (43%) | 65% | 18% | 47% |
Black (37%) | 59% | 24% | 35% |
Hispanic (12%) | 59% | 25% | 34% |
Non-white (58%) | 59% | 23% | 37% |
Do you agree or disagree that reforms to probation and parole, including reducing technical violations and providing more rehabilitation services, would help reduce crime?
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Subgroup | Agree | Disagree | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 82% | 11% | 70% |
Independent (37%) | 67% | 19% | 48% |
Republican (23%) | 68% | 22% | 45% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 74% | 16% | 57% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 75% | 15% | 61% |
White (43%) | 70% | 17% | 53% |
Black (37%) | 67% | 17% | 51% |
Hispanic (12%) | 69% | 15% | 54% |
Non-white (58%) | 67% | 16% | 51% |
Elected Official Series
How important is it to you that your elected officials support criminal justice reform?
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Subgroup | Important | Not Important | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 84% | 10% | 74% |
Independent (37%) | 71% | 18% | 53% |
Republican (23%) | 71% | 19% | 52% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 76% | 16% | 60% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 79% | 13% | 66% |
White (43%) | 76% | 12% | 64% |
Black (37%) | 70% | 17% | 53% |
Hispanic (12%) | 67% | 18% | 49% |
Non-white (58%) | 69% | 17% | 52% |
In this Presidential election, would you be more or less likely to support a candidate that advocates for modernizing the criminal justice system, including probation and parole reforms like the Safer Supervision Act, to reduce crime and improve public safety?
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 77% | 13% | 63% |
Independent (37%) | 64% | 18% | 46% |
Republican (23%) | 62% | 28% | 34% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 69% | 18% | 51% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 70% | 17% | 53% |
White (43%) | 66% | 17% | 49% |
Black (37%) | 63% | 19% | 44% |
Hispanic (12%) | 59% | 23% | 36% |
Non-white (58%) | 62% | 19% | 43% |
When it comes to crime, would you be more likely to support candidates if they focused on smart criminal justice reforms such as reducing the number of people incarcerated or on supervision and increasing rehabilitation programs?
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 73% | 18% | 55% |
Independent (37%) | 61% | 22% | 39% |
Republican (23%) | 60% | 26% | 34% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 66% | 20% | 46% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 69% | 18% | 51% |
White (43%) | 67% | 15% | 52% |
Black (37%) | 58% | 26% | 32% |
Hispanic (12%) | 57% | 24% | 34% |
Non-white (58%) | 58% | 24% | 34% |
Are you familiar with the First Step Act, signed into law in 2018, which aims to reduce reoffending and improve rehabilitation in the prison system?
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Subgroup | Yes, Very Familiar | Yes, Heard Of It | No, Not familiar |
Democratic (29%) | 12% | 34% | 54% |
Independent (37%) | 10% | 38% | 53% |
Republican (23%) | 18% | 42% | 40% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 13% | 37% | 49% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 13% | 38% | 49% |
White (43%) | 9% | 36% | 55% |
Black (37%) | 15% | 38% | 47% |
Hispanic (12%) | 11% | 42% | 47% |
Non-white (58%) | 14% | 37% | 49% |
The First Step Act reduced reoffending rates for people leaving federal prisons by more than 80%. Do you believe similar reforms should be expanded?
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Subgroup | Yes | No | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 64% | 21% | 44% |
Independent (37%) | 55% | 26% | 29% |
Republican (23%) | 51% | 31% | 20% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 59% | 25% | 34% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 61% | 23% | 38% |
White (43%) | 57% | 24% | 33% |
Black (37%) | 53% | 25% | 29% |
Hispanic (12%) | 48% | 32% | 16% |
Non-white (58%) | 52% | 25% | 27% |
Do you believe that criminal justice reforms like the First Step Act help make communities safer or less safe?
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Subgroup | Safer | Less Safe | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 67% | 8% | 58% |
Independent (37%) | 55% | 9% | 46% |
Republican (23%) | 49% | 16% | 33% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 57% | 10% | 47% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 59% | 10% | 49% |
White (43%) | 53% | 9% | 44% |
Black (37%) | 54% | 11% | 43% |
Hispanic (12%) | 55% | 12% | 44% |
Non-white (58%) | 54% | 11% | 43% |
Would you be more likely to cast a vote for President in this election if the candidates offered more ideas on criminal justice reform and modernizing probation and parole systems?
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 70% | 18% | 52% |
Independent (37%) | 62% | 20% | 41% |
Republican (23%) | 55% | 31% | 24% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 64% | 21% | 43% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 65% | 20% | 45% |
White (43%) | 61% | 20% | 40% |
Black (37%) | 61% | 22% | 39% |
Hispanic (12%) | 52% | 28% | 24% |
Non-white (58%) | 58% | 23% | 36% |
Do you believe that criminal justice and supervision reform should be a priority for candidates running for office?
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Subgroup | Yes, ALL | Yes, GOP | Yes, DEM | No |
Democratic (29%) | 36% | 5% | 40% | 10% |
Independent (37%) | 31% | 19% | 20% | 11% |
Republican (23%) | 24% | 40% | 11% | 11% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 32% | 19% | 24% | 12% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 33% | 19% | 25% | 11% |
White (43%) | 29% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
Black (37%) | 28% | 17% | 28% | 8% |
Hispanic (12%) | 32% | 15% | 27% | 6% |
Non-white (58%) | 29% | 16% | 26% | 8% |
If the Presidential election was held today, how would you vote?
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Subgroup | Harris | Trump | Another Candidate | Not Vote |
Democratic (29%) | 86% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
Independent (37%) | 38% | 28% | 9% | 11% |
Republican (23%) | 11% | 72% | 7% | 3% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 49% | 32% | 5% | 5% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 50% | 33% | 5% | 4% |
White (43%) | 34% | 42% | 6% | 7% |
Black (37%) | 54% | 16% | 6% | 9% |
Hispanic (12%) | 44% | 32% | 8% | 7% |
Non-white (58%) | 49% | 21% | 6% | 9% |
If Kamala Harris was more outspoken about her smart on crime policies and support for reforms like the Safer Supervision Act, would that make you...
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 65% | 14% | 50% |
Independent (37%) | 43% | 21% | 22% |
Republican (23%) | 28% | 47% | -19% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 48% | 24% | 24% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 47% | 24% | 23% |
White (43%) | 36% | 26% | 9% |
Black (37%) | 52% | 22% | 30% |
Hispanic (12%) | 49% | 24% | 25% |
Non-white (58%) | 50% | 21% | 29% |
If Donald Trump was more outspoken about smart on crime policies and support for reforms like the Safer Supervision Act, would that make you...
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (29%) | 25% | 30% | -4% |
Independent (37%) | 37% | 24% | 12% |
Republican (23%) | 61% | 22% | 38% |
Registered Voters (75%) | 41% | 24% | 17% |
Likely Voters (72%) | 40% | 23% | 17% |
White (43%) | 43% | 16% | 26% |
Black (37%) | 33% | 31% | 2% |
Hispanic (12%) | 41% | 26% | 15% |
Non-white (58%) | 34% | 29% | 5% |
Would you be more likely or less likely to cast your vote for Donald Trump if he were to prioritize expanding on criminal justice reforms like the First Step Act?
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (58%) | 23% | 29% | -6% |
Independent (32%) | 32% | 30% | 1% |
Republican (6%) | 52% | 40% | 12% |
Registered Voters (85%) | 29% | 29% | 0% |
Likely Voters (84%) | 28% | 28% | 0% |
White (34%) | 24% | 22% | 2% |
Black (47%) | 33% | 33% | 0% |
Hispanic (12%) | 23% | 40% | -17% |
Non-white (66%) | 30% | 33% | -3% |
Would you be more likely or less likely to cast your vote for Kamala Harris if she were to prioritize expanding on criminal justice reforms like the First Step Act?
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Subgroup | More Likely | Less Likely | Differential |
Democratic (5%) | 27% | 60% | -33% |
Independent (35%) | 30% | 29% | 1% |
Republican (56%) | 25% | 44% | -19% |
Registered Voters (80%) | 27% | 41% | -14% |
Likely Voters (80%) | 29% | 36% | -7% |
White (60%) | 24% | 37% | -13% |
Black (20%) | 30% | 45% | -15% |
Hispanic (13%) | 26% | 47% | -21% |
Non-white (40%) | 29% | 42% | -14% |
Thank
You.
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