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1.3 Can The Fossil Fuel Industry

Be Defeated?

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Contents:

  1. A historical perspective on the task before us
    1. Abolition
    2. Tobacco Industry
  2. The cracks beginning to dismantle the fossil fuel industry
  3. The opportunity for a new narrative

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We’re modern day abolitionists.

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“So before anyone misunderstands my point, let me be clear and state the obvious: there is absolutely no conceivable moral comparison between the enslavement of Africans and African- Americans and the burning of carbon to power our devices. Humans are humans; molecules are molecules.

The comparison I’m making is a comparison between the political economy of slavery and the political economy of fossil fuel.”

  • Chris Hayes

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Embedded Value

In 1860, Slaves = 16% South’s total assets → ~$10 Trillion

“In 1860… slaves as property were worth more than all the banks, factories and railroads in the country put together.”

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Stranded Assets

  • 2 degree limit for preserving civilization as we know it
  • Already warmed 1 degree
  • ~550 gigatons CO2 left in carbon budget(2012)
  • ~2,795 gigatons in world’s fossil fuel “Proven Reserves”
  • “work of the climate movement is to find a way to force the powers that be… to leave 80 percent of the carbon they have claims on in the ground.”
  • $10-$20 Trillion or 80% of their wealth needs to be left in the ground.

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That liquidation of slavery’s private wealth is the only precedent for what today’s climate justice movement is rightly demanding: that trillions of dollars of fossil fuel stay in the ground.

It is an audacious demand, and those making it should be clear-eyed about just what they’re asking.

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They should also recognize that, like the abolitionists of yore, their task may be as much instigation and disruption as it is persuasion.

There is no way around conflict with this much money on the line, no available solution that makes everyone happy.

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What do we make of this?

  • Beware of “win-win” solutions
  • Beware of industry playing a leading role
  • Beware of “practical solutions”
  • Embrace conflict?
  • Are we facing violence?

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How to Erode an Industry

A Brief History of The American Tobacco Industry’s Decline

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Addiction isn’t purely chemical it can be cultural

  • Cigarettes engineered to be as addictive as possible
  • Advertising designed to create addictive “experience”
  • Design (architecture, schedules, facilities) encourages smoking
  • Subsidies
  • Culture
  • Etc.

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Tobacco’s Fall From Grace: A Timeline

1957 - US Public Health Service implicates smoking as a cause of lung cancer with robust evidence

  • Industry immediately hires PR firms to spread doubt

1964 - Surgeon General’s Advisory Committee report marks beginning of a significant shift in public attitudes about smoking

1965 - Congress requires that all cigarette packages carry Surgeon General warning labels

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Tobacco’s Fall From Grace: A Timeline

1967 - Federal Communications Commission Fairness Doctrine ruling requires broadcasters to run an anti-smoking advertisement for every cigarette ad aired.

1970 - television and radio tobacco advertisements banned

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Tobacco’s Fall From Grace: A Timeline

1975 - Minnesota Clean Indoor Air Act is the first statewide law in the nation that requires separate smoking areas in public places.

1987 - The RJ Reynolds tobacco company debuts the Joe Camel character in its U.S. advertisements. This cartoon character hooked millions of kids on Camel tobacco products.

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Tobacco’s Fall From Grace: A Timeline

1994 - Seven tobacco company executives testify before congress that they do not believe nicotine is addictive.

1998 - Industry agrees to a $206 billion master settlement with 46 states, the largest settlement in U.S. history.

  • The 40-year-old Tobacco Institute and the Committee for Tobacco Research -- the public relations organ and the funder of tobacco research -- were disbanded as a part of the settlement.

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Tobacco’s Fall From Grace: A Timeline

2000 - Philip Morris on its website acknowledged “an overwhelming medical and scientific consensus that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer, heart disease, emphysema and other serious disease in smokers”

2009 - President Obama signs legislation granting the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulatory authority over tobacco products. Tobacco products are now no longer exempt from basic oversight.

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What do we make of this?

  • Layering
  • Local Initiatives → Systemic change
  • Make them pay!

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What worked?

Research has shown that the most potent demand-reducing influences on tobacco use have been interventions that impact virtually all smokers repeatedly

  • higher taxes on tobacco products
  • comprehensive advertising bans
  • graphic pack warnings
  • mass media campaigns
  • smoke-free policies

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$250 billion spent on cigarette advertisement between 1940-2005

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The Emperor Has No Clothes

The Industry Is More Vulnerable Than Ever

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Crude Oil Prices ($/kWh)

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Material, Economic Changes

  • Unprofitable Business Models & Decreasing EROI
    • Divestment, Bankruptcy, Bailouts
  • Decline of US “Energy Independence”
    • Increased geopolitical conflict, loss of bargaining power
  • Job Losses
    • Lack of voter support, resentment, abandonment

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“Shared stories are humanity’s essential tool for overcoming the obstacles to collective action:

  • forge common interests in a collective goal
  • surmount temptations to “free ride”
  • inspire cooperation and assure that everyone will pitch in

There is compelling reason to believe that human beings’ predilection for deploying socially meaningful narratives is an evolutionary adaptation that has given our species a competitive advantage.

  • Frederick Mayer

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“We dream in narrative, daydream in narrative, remember, anticipate, hope, despair, believe, doubt, plan, revise, criticize, construct, gossip, learn, hate and live by narrative.”

  • Barbara Hardy

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Material, Economic Changes → Narrative Changes

  • Unprofitable Business Models & Decreasing EROI
    • fossil fuels make less sense every day
    • investment is “irresponsible”
  • Decline of US “Energy independence” →
    • independence was always a myth
    • Dependence on fossil fuels makes us less secure
  • Fewer jobs →
    • jobs were precarious & dangerous
    • GND = stable, safe,
    • CAREERS

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Ready for Part 2?

Our Vision & Narrative for a Just & Livable Future

2. 1 New Economics & Culture

2.2 Environmental & Climate Justice

2.3 The Green New Deal

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