ND State Climate Office Bi-weekly Drought Update
Greg Gust, NDDES Meteorologist
in support of
ND SCO and the ND Ag Disaster Response
Version: 24-07, Updated on: Apr 4, 2024
Total snow as of 8am, Wednesday Morning, 27 Mar 2024
Big Snows in last week of March were less robust than anticipated!
Total snow as of 7am, 4 April 2023 – Last Year!
Last April, Yesh! Still a lot of snow to melt in that year!
North Dakota’s Average Precipitation for the month of April ranges from 1.05 (north-northwest) to 1.85 (south-southeast).
Forecast Through Saturday Morning, Apr 6th
*
Winter season warmth: It’s all about Sun Angle and Snow Cover!
Now two weeks past the Spring (vernal) Equinox – Sun’s power gain is phenomenal!
Past 30-Days of Precipitation (Mar 4 – Apr 3)
Percent of Normal
Observed Precipitation
https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?location_type=wfo&location_name=FGF
Past 60-Days of Precipitation (Feb 3 – Apr 3)
Observed Precipitation
Percent of Normal
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/
Water Year (WY2024) Precipitation (Since Oct 1st)
Observed Precipitation
Percent of Normal
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/
Slight uptick in soil moisture anomaly across the NNE:
40-80 mm
= 1.6-3.2 in
Soil Moisture (NASA SPoRT Model)
Shallow layer (0-10 cm)
Root zone (0-100 cm)
USGS Realtime Streamflow - Typical high-flow period
Some Gages still thawing out.
Virtually no snowmelt runoff!
US Drought Monitor
Estimated ND Population in Drought Areas: 71,787
ND: Drought area slight decreases over
past 4 weeks.
4-Week Change in Drought Designation
Outlooks:
Unseasonably warm and somewhat dry…
Week 1: Through Apr 11 (issued Apr 4)
Precipitation (7-day QPF):
Max Temperature Anomaly (Apr 7-11):
Week 2: Apr 11 – 17 (issued Apr 3)
Precipitation:
Temperature:
Climate Prediction Center
One-Month Outlook: Apr 2024 (Update Mar 31)
Precipitation
Temperature
Climate Prediction Center
Three-Month Outlook: Apr-May-Jun 2024�(Issued Mar 21)
Precipitation
Temperature
Climate Prediction Center
Six-Month Outlook: Jul-Aug-Sep 2024�(Issued Mar 21)
Precipitation
Temperature
Climate Prediction Center
Wildfire: Energy Release Component, by quadrant of ND
Grey line traces the average condition ERC conditions over the 2000-2020 period.
Red line traces the worst (high energy) conditions during since 2000, a 2021-type year for ND.
Blue line traces current conditions:
Current overall trend is normalish, running a bit on the more energetic potential side of normal as we head into the typical spring wildfire season of April 15 through May 15 - prior to spring green-up.
Wildfire: 100 Hour Fuel Moisture, by quadrant of ND
Grey line traces the average condition FM-100 conditions over the 2000-2020 period.
Red line traces the worst (driest fuel) conditions during since 2000, a 2021-type year for ND.
Blue line traces current conditions:
Current overall trend is also normalish, running a bit on the drier side of normal as we head into the typical spring wildfire season of April 15 through May 15 - prior to spring green-up.
Wildfire: Burn Index, by quadrant of ND
Grey line traces the average condition BI conditions over the 2000-2020 period.
Red line traces the worst (hot-dry fuel) conditions during since 2000, a 2021-type year for ND.
Blue line traces current conditions:
Current overall trend is also normalish, running a bit on the hotter/drier side of normal as we head into the typical spring wildfire season of April 15 through May 15 - prior to spring green-up.
Preliminary Spring Drought or Wildfire Concerns?
Given the lack of winter snow cover, lack of potential snowmelt runoff, and a potentially early ground thaw…
It will be important to have early spring rains, to offset potentially dry soil and abundant dry grasses…
Much like any normalish spring season.
ENSO Status Globally� [El Nino/Southern Oscillation]� �…loop thru 27 Mar 2024� �From late Dec through late March, the NINO 3.4 Region (red rectangle) has sharply cooled, signaling the steady shift towards ENSO neutral conditions… 83% chance in Apr-Jun, as of the CPC/IRI 1 Apr 2024 update.��La Nina conditions developing Jun-Aug 2024 (62% chance).
Animations Courtesy of NOAA/CPC: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
Issued Mar 18, 2024
Monitoring Soil Moisture and Snow Drought… …as we move from pre-spring, into true spring.
Check out the UMRB Drought Indicators Dashboard at…
https://drought.climate.umt.edu/#standardized-snow-water-equivalent-snodas-hypsome-swe
30 Day SPEI
Current SWE %