Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

MARKETING

PRACTICAL LESSON 7

Demand Analysis and Forecasting in Marketing

Duration: 90 min Individual & Group PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

• Define demand analysis and explain its importance for marketing decision-making

• Identify and explain the seven key determinants of demand

• Apply the concept of price elasticity to classify products as elastic or inelastic

• Distinguish between qualitative and quantitative demand forecasting methods

• Select and justify the most appropriate forecasting method for a given business situation

• Connect demand forecasting to real marketing decisions: pricing, advertising, production, and launches

0 Lesson Timeline (90 min)

1 Warm-Up (10 min)

Discuss the following questions with a partner:

STARTER QUESTIONS

1. When you decide to buy a product, what factors influence your decision most — price, quality, income, or advertising? Give a real example.

2. If a company raises the price of its product and sales drop sharply, is that good or bad for the business? What does this tell us about demand?

3. Why is it important for a business to forecast future demand before launching a new product?

Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

2 Practical Tasks

TASK 1 — Determinants of Demand: Analysis Exercise | Individual • 15 min

For each scenario below, identify: (a) which determinant of demand is at work, (b) whether demand will increase, decrease, or stay the same, and (c) a brief explanation.

□ Tip: Review the 7 determinants: price of product, consumer income, prices of related goods, tastes & preferences, expectations, demographic factors, marketing efforts.

Price Elasticity Application:

A bakery raises bread prices by 10% and sales fall by 3%. Is demand elastic or inelastic? What does this mean for revenue strategy?

A luxury car brand raises prices by 15% and sales fall by 25%. Is demand elastic or inelastic? What pricing recommendation would you make?

Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

TASK 2 — Demand Forecasting Method Selection | Individual • 20 min

Each business scenario below requires a demand forecast. For each one: (a) select the most appropriate forecasting method, (b) explain why, and (c) identify one limitation.

□ Tip: Methods: Consumer Survey, Sales Force Opinion, Delphi Technique, Trend Projection, Regression, Test Marketing.

TASK 3 — Qualitative vs Quantitative: Group Comparison | Group of 3-4 students • 20 min

Scenario: Uzpak Dairy wants to forecast demand for a new plant-based milk product. It has 10 years of traditional dairy sales data and a budget for one research study.

Part A — Method Comparison Table

Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

Part B — Group Recommendation (3-4 sentences):

Part C — Match Marketing Applications to Forecasting Technique:

TASK 4 — Design a Mini Demand Forecast Plan | Individual • 15 min

Choose one business below and design a mini demand forecast plan covering all four components:

1. Forecasting objective (what to predict, and for how long?)

2. Forecasting method(s) selected and justification

3. What data you would need to collect

4. How the forecast result would influence one specific marketing decision

Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

Write your Mini Demand Forecast Plan:

3 Group Discussion (10 min)

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS — Full Class

• What is the difference between demand measurement (current demand) and demand forecasting (future demand)? Why does this distinction matter for marketing strategy?

• Can demand forecasting ever be 100% accurate? What factors make forecasting harder in emerging markets like Uzbekistan compared to mature markets?

• A company uses only its sales force to estimate future demand. What are the risks of this approach? How can the bias be corrected?

• How does price elasticity of demand affect a company's decision about whether to invest heavily in advertising?

4 Assessment Rubric

Marketing | Practical Lesson 7

PhD. E. Khodjaniyazov

5 Homework / Independent Study

ASSIGNMENTS FOR NEXT SESSION

1. Find real sales data for any product or industry in Uzbekistan. Apply the Trend Projection method to estimate next year's demand. Present your calculation and assumptions in one page.

2. Interview 3-5 people using the Consumer Survey method for a new product of your choice. Summarise findings and evaluate what the method revealed versus what it could not reveal.

3. Research the Delphi Method. Find one published business forecasting example. Write a half-page summary: what was forecast, who the experts were, and how accurate the result was.

4. Prepare a 2-minute comparison presentation of qualitative vs quantitative forecasting methods for a new product launch in a Uzbek business context. Present at the start of the next session.