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The Importance of Cooperation in Addressing Drought in Transboundary Basins

Dr. Iskandar Abdullaev, IWMI

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Why drought in the region is a shared challenge

Central Asia is vulnerable not only because of climate, but also because of strong interdependence in water, energy and agriculture

• Kazakhstan: almost half of surface water originates outside the country; irrigation networks operate at only about 55% efficiency, and water losses reach 40%.

• Uzbekistan: about 85% of cultivated land is irrigated with water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya.

• Turkmenistan: about 95% of water resources are transboundary, so drought is shaped by more than local rainfall.

• Tajikistan: the water-energy-food nexus makes drought impacts sensitive for neighboring basin countries.

≈30%

of the region’s territory

has a drought probability

of 50% or higher

5–6 years

average recurrence

of severe droughts in several

countries of the region

up to 70%

of all people affected

by emergencies in the region

are linked to drought

What makes the problem transboundary

• shared rivers and reservoirs connect countries’ decisions into one hydrological cycle;

• in low-water years, domestic measures in one country quickly affect downstream neighbors;

• risks spread simultaneously to food, energy, drinking water supply and ecosystems;

• without data exchange and agreed rules, drought becomes a crisis of trust.

Based on the regional profile and the national profiles of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

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Four national profiles — one shared risk

Countries play different hydrological roles in the system, but converge on one point: drought requires coordination before, during and after a crisis

Kazakhstan

Almost half of surface water comes from outside the country; during the 2012 drought in Kyzylorda, irrigation-water availability fell by 52%.

Uzbekistan

85% of agricultural land depends on irrigation from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya; in 1999–2001, basin water deficits of up to 30% were recorded.

Turkmenistan

95% of water comes from transboundary resources; vulnerability is shaped by downstream location and access to the Amu Darya and Karakum Canal.

Tajikistan

The country has significant water resources and glaciers, but drought affects energy, irrigation and access to drinking water.

Different basin roles do not negate the shared interest: transparent data, predictable rules and joint adaptation measures.

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Why cooperation is critical in drought years

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Shared data → a shared risk picture

Coordinated monitoring of runoff, precipitation, snow cover, soil moisture and water use reduces uncertainty and enables earlier action.

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Agreed rules → fewer conflicts

Pre-agreed limits, minimum environmental and economic flows, and procedures for revising water allocation prevent ad hoc decisions.

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Joint investments → higher returns

Canal modernization, digital water-delivery management, water-saving technologies and ecosystem restoration are more effective when designed at basin scale rather than separately.

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Trust and inclusion → sustainable solutions

Scientific institutions, line ministries, local communities and women’s networks in water diplomacy broaden the legitimacy and feasibility of solutions.

Cooperation shifts drought management from response mode to prevention and joint adaptation

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What already exists in the region — and where gaps remain

Existing mechanisms

• ICWC — water allocation, operation regimes for interstate reservoirs and recommendations on water sharing;

• SIC ICWC — data on water availability, forecasting and modeling;

• Chu-Talas Commission — an example of joint infrastructure management and basin cooperation;

• CES DRR — an emerging coordination platform for emergency response and development of a regional early-warning system.

Key gaps

• there is no unified regional body or full regional response system specifically for drought;

• existing arrangements often function ad hoc, without stable protocols for low-water years;

• regional strategies from 2003, 2019 and 2021 exist, but implementation and financing remain incomplete;

• monitoring and EWS remain mostly national, with fragmented data across agencies.

Conclusion: the institutional base already exists, but it needs to move from fragmented to systematic — through drought protocols, shared data and sustainable financing.

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A practical set of joint measures

Strong solutions combine institutional, technical, nature-based and social instruments

Early warning and data

compatible drought indicators, regular exchange of hydromet data, seasonal forecasts and a common protocol for interpreting risk

Flexible water allocation

rules for low-water years, minimum guaranteed flows, transparent adjustment of limits and water-energy exchange during shortages

Irrigation modernization

reduction of canal losses, night irrigation, digital dispatching and targeted support for water-saving technologies

Nature-based measures

restoration of degraded pastures and catchments, shelterbelts, and action against desertification and dust-salt storms

Vulnerability management

local action plans, protection of rural households, participation of women and communities, training and exchange of practices

Priority for transboundary basins: not merely sharing water, but jointly managing risk — from forecasting to investment and response.

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Proposed logic for joint basin action

From information exchange to agreed decisions and a joint investment program

I. Preparedness

• joint monitoring of runoff, snow, precipitation and water demand

• common drought indicators and thresholds

• seasonal scenario analysis at basin level

II. Low-water season

• protocol for revising limits and minimum flows

• operational data exchange and coordination through basin mechanisms

• temporary water-energy exchange measures and protection of critical users

III. Recovery and adaptation

• assessment of the season and adjustment of rules

• joint investments: EWS, irrigation and ecosystems

• training, exercises and support for local communities

Result: predictable decisions in low-water seasons and reduced economic, social and political losses.

Drought illustrations and the direct link to basin water availability

Drought in a transboundary basin appears not only as a climate anomaly, but also as reduced available water, deteriorating water quality, and lower reliability of irrigation, hydropower and ecosystem services.

Falling water levels and exposed channels/banks: hydrological drought quickly becomes a water-management problem

Declining levels and reduced economic function of water bodies: a signal of runoff deficit and accumulated water stress

Small transboundary basins such as Chu–Talas are especially sensitive to low-water years and uncoordinated management

Declining water availability

• reduced runoff and inflow

• reservoir storage deficits

• less available water in canals

Types of drought

• meteorological

• soil/agricultural

• hydrological

• socio-economic

Water link

• irrigation and drinking-water deficits

• hydropower losses

• worsening water quality

• growing competition among sectors

Transboundary effect

• upstream–downstream tension

• need for data exchange

• agreed limits and regimes

• joint adaptation measures

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Historical examples of drought in small transboundary basins of Central Asia

In small basins, drought appears fastest as lower water availability during the growing season, irrigation-water deficits and reduced environmental flows.

Spatial framing of the problem

The Chu–Talas basin is the most illustrative small/medium transboundary case in the attached DRRA materials.

Typical impact chain: meteorological drought → low water availability/low flows → canal deficits → crop losses and local tensions.

Key historical cases

2000–2001 and 2008

Isfara (Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan)

local runoff deficit

In dry years, water allocation between the Isfara riverbed and the Great Fergana Canal became especially sensitive. Drought intensified competition for irrigation water at the peak of the growing season and required special water-sharing arrangements.

2021 and 2023

Chu–Talas (Kyrgyzstan–Kazakhstan)

irrigation drought

In low-water years, the lower Talas basin and the Western Big Chui Canal experience water shortfalls. In 2023, Zhambyl region reported irrigation delays, reduced canal flows and allocation conflicts.

2021

Small border rivers and canals of Batken–Sughd

social stress

Falling water levels in rivers and canals, together with pasture drought, intensified shortages of water and fodder. For small transboundary systems, this showed that even a short water deficit quickly becomes an issue of local stability and coordination.

Takeaway for the presentation:

in small transboundary basins, drought rarely remains only a climate phenomenon: it quickly becomes a problem of water allocation, canal operation, environmental flows and trust among water users.

Linking water availability, drought types and water-management impacts

Key idea: for small transboundary basins, it is important to track not only the occurrence of drought, but also how quickly a climate signal turns into a deficit of available water and cross-border risks.

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Proposed rapid drought assessment matrix for small transboundary basins of Central Asia

A rapid approach for STT basins: 10 indicators, a 0–3 scale, an overall risk index and thresholds for joint response.

Interpretation of the total score: 0–8 low risk; 9–16 watch level; 17–24 high; 25–30 critical. The matrix can be applied monthly during the season and used as a shared language for two countries in an STT basin.

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Lessons for cooperation and rapid drought assessment

in small transboundary basins of Central Asia

For small basins, the key issue is not only rainfall deficit, but how quickly declining water availability turns into water shortages for irrigation, ecosystems and local communities.

Lessons for

cooperation

Rapid drought assessment

matrix

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Early coordination before the deficit peaks

In small systems, even a short runoff deficit during the growing season quickly becomes a dispute over water-allocation regimes. Coordination must begin before the deficit peaks.

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Water availability is the main operational signal

For border rivers and canals, it is most practical to monitor not only precipitation, but also low flows, flows at division points, canal filling and reliability of water delivery.

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Link: drought type → water impact

Meteorological drought does not always cause immediate damage, but when water availability falls it quickly turns into hydrological, irrigation and ecological drought.

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Thresholds must trigger action

A set of simple thresholds and signals enables water agencies, BWOs and local commissions to agree faster on restrictions, delivery schedules and data exchange.

Assessment block

Observation

Alert

Crisis

Water availability and runoff

Below-normal precipitation; flows declining, but canal deliveries remain stable.

Persistent low flows; deficits at division points; losses and delivery delays increase.

Breakdown of delivery schedules; sharp drop in levels; downstream areas receive less water.

Soil moisture

and irrigation

Local moisture deficit; more frequent irrigation monitoring is needed.

Irrigation drought is increasing; crop priorities and delivery sequencing are needed.

Crop losses, revision of cropping plans, emergency restrictions and water trucking.

Ecosystems and

social risks

Environmental flows are maintained; tension is low.

Floodplain and pasture watering declines; complaints from water users increase.

Degradation of downstream areas, pasture stress, local conflicts and livelihood losses.

Coordination and

decision-making

Weekly data exchange between parties; alignment of observations.

Joint meeting of BWOs/agencies; temporary allocation rules and public notification.

Emergency protocol: restrictions on water delivery, protection of drinking water and environmental flows, daily data exchange.

Practice: ≥2 blocks at “Alert” = joint verification; any block at “Crisis” = emergency protocol.

Takeaway for

the presentation:

For small transboundary basins in Central Asia, cooperation must be threshold-based and operational: common indicators, rapid data exchange and pre-agreed actions matter more than after-the-fact response.

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Three key takeaways

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Drought in transboundary basins is not a local disruption, but a regional stress test for water, food, energy and trust.

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The region already has core institutions and strategies, but lacks a systematic approach, a common drought protocol and sustainable financing.

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The most valuable investment is shared data, shared rules and joint adaptation measures at basin level.

Thank you