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Outcomes of ISWAT session 1

Team name: Geospace scoreboard

Team:

  • Lead: Edmund, others welcome!

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Members:

  • Edmund: get MO human-in-loop Kp forecasts, Geospace preds into scoreboard
  • Masha: help get off ground, contribute CCMC dev time to develop & implement scoreboard
  • Edmund, Eelco: help define the input format, scoreboard design
  • Adam: getting SWPC entries onto scoreboard
  • Maria: brainstorm science questions – what to evaluate m’sphere for, for coupling to lower down
  • Ioanna & Claudia: follow for now!

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Next steps (in ISWAT session 2):

  • Brainstorm scoreboard use cases & required content
  • Define strawperson machine-readable templates
    • for scoreboard submissions
    • for scoreboard itself (so all can interrogate scoreboard for verification easily, no html scraping)

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Outcomes of ISWAT session 2

Use cases, things to consider

  1. How has model_X done at predicting Kp (Kp_predicted, Kp_observed)_i

B. How has method_X done at predicting Kp (Kp_pred_prob, Kp_obs)_I

C. Stratify A & B by source (HSS, CME, …) - labels

D. Discussion of event: id/link to discussion

E: verification: capturing false positives / misses – event-based, or time-based

  • Or both: have different submission templates!
  • Decimate time series to max_daily to improve statistical independence – Kp_3H not independent!
  • Consult with terrestrial: tools (ensure compatibility with MetPlus)

F: allow re-use for validation/situation of new: 

  • ML/empirical models: so can exclude these, benchmark against others
  • physics-based models: benchmark against others

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