Climate Toolbox Activities
FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY
EXPLORE FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY
NEAR PORTLAND, OREGON
In this activity, we will explore future grape suitability under climatic conditions near Portland, Oregon, using the Future Crop Suitability Tool in the Climate Toolbox.
A crop can be damaged by periods of extreme cold temperatures for even a few hours. In a warming climate, we expect fewer frost days annually. But with warmer winters and earlier springs, a late frost could cause crop losses.
Climate Effects
Crop Suitability due to Temperature Effects
The crop suitability of a geographical region for growing a certain crop is the ability of a crop to grow to maturation with a good harvest year after year. Farmers accept that crops may fail occasionally. But when crops fail more than 1-2 years every 10 years, a farmer starts to question continually growing a crop. In a warming planet, the ranges of suitable regions for different crops are likely to shift. Temperature effects are a dominant cause of crop failures.
A crop can generally survive in a region when the average minimum temperatures exceed a threshold value determining the cold hardiness zones used by gardeners. In a warming climate, we expect more crops to survive in what are today colder regions.
A crop advances through stages of development after accumulating enough heat or growing degree days (GDD), calculated as the sum of average daily temperatures above a set threshold. In a warming climate, we expect crops to achieve maturation and harvest sooner than today.
Some crops require exposure to cooler temperatures, i.e. hours between 32 - 45 F, in order to break winter dormancy with adequate growth in the growing season. In a warming climate, we expect some tree crop harvests to fail in warmer regions due to not accumulating enough chill hours in the winter months. To try to accumulate more chill hours, budbreak may occur later in cooler regions thus delaying the reproductive growth phase.
ClimateToolbox.org
Frost Damage
Cold Hardiness
Heat Accumulation
Chill Accumulation
ClimateToolbox.org
Data
FUTURE CROP SUITABILITY
A year is considered not suitable if:
Future crop suitability data used in this activity were produced using daily minimum and maximum temperature data from 20 global climate models and 2 future emission scenarios (RCP4.5, 8.5) from CMIP5. Hourly temperature data are estimated using minimum and maximum daily temperatures and latitude.
Activity
In the crop model, growth stages of different crops are simulated using growing degree days. If the crop achieves maturation, i.e. ready for harvest, before the first Fall freeze triggers crop dormancy, the year is considered suitable for that crop.
Crop Simulations
Overall Thermal Suitability
Create a climate data story on future crop suitability near Portland.
Prepare a 3-5 min presentation (2 slides) on your story.
The Facts (Slide 1)
The Meaning (Slide 2)
To Do
To Do
Prepare Slide
Prepare Slide
Prepare Talking Points