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Competitive Landscape and �Enrollment Projections ��Past |Present |Future�Trends, Modeling and Analysis

TAC Training - PART 2

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Part 2 Agenda

  • Terms & Conditions�
  • Competitive Landscape
    • National
    • Regional
    • State-wide

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  • Historical analysis and influence on projections�
  • SCH Projection Modeling for Pro Forma�

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Terms & Conditions

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  • SCH – Student Credit Hours
    • Basic unit of income for university
    • One course typically = 4 SCH�
  • FTE – Fulltime Equivalent per Academic Year (AY)
    • 45 SCH for an undergraduate student
    • 36 SCH for a graduate student
    • Not to be confused w/Full-time Employee 1.0 FTE�
  • Headcount
    • Physical person
    • Individually counted and assessed a fee�

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Terms & Conditions

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  • Academic Year
    • Fall to Fall
    • Starts in calendar, carries forward
      • i.e. AY20 (Sept 2020 – June 2021)

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  • Fiscal Year
    • July 1 to June 30 following year
    • Uses NEXT year to denote the calendar
      • i.e. FY2021 (July 1, 2020 – June 30, 2021)�

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Terms & Conditions

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  • Fees
    • Mandatory Enrollment Fees
      • Building, Health Services
    • Matriculation Fee
      • One-time assessment
    • Others�
  • Rates
    • Resident – graduate of an Oregon High School
    • WUE – Western Undergraduate Exchange
    • Others�

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Understanding the Bigger Picture

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  • High School Graduates
    • National
    • Western Region�
  • Oregon in detail
    • High School Graduates
    • Competitive Landscape�
  • SOU state-2-state comparison �
  • SOU’s Historical FTE
    • Distant past to present�
  • SOU’s Budget SCH Projection Modeling

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Last Fall…

13,004

Source: https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/

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13,004

Source: https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/

NOTE: Data in the clearinghouse is presented gendered by that organization.

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Current Academic Year

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Current Academic Year

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Total: 11,179

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SOU’s Undergraduate History

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Enrollment Context, SCH Decline

Data Source: https://inside.sou.edu/ir/enrollments.html

Data Source: COGNOS, IR Enrollment Summary, SCH

*Excludes ASC/OLLI

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13,004

Source: https://sites.google.com/sou.edu/executiveenrollmentdata

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Word of Caution

Budgeting based solely on past performance

Driving while looking only in the rear-view mirror

Cause of a lot of Accidents

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Budgeted SCH Projection Model

  • All models start with historical data
    • “Past Performance Is NO Guarantee of Future Results”
    • Helpful metric for defining a forecast model
    • Patterns emerge

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Budgeted SCH Projection Model

  • Detail data requires a roll-up approach
    • Consolidate details into SCH categories matching the tuition rates in tuition and fee book

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TERMS

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Budgeted SCH Projection Model

  • Standard Projection Model
    • Fall-2-Fall uses a weighted 5yr moving truncated average (#1)
    • Winter, Spring use a ‘melt factor’ based on previous 5yr behavior and most recent Fall-2-Fall attrition (#2)
    • Summer is linear regression with Fall-2-Fall reduction (#3)

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Budgeted SCH Projection Model

  • Standard Projection Model
    • Whole Year amounts per SCH Category
      • Summer Split 2/3 Prior Summer Term, 1/3 Next

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Pro forma Cross-over

  • Projection Model feeds to the pro forma

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Pro forma Levers

  • Levers allow for environmental factors outside of normal modeling – ‘Driving using all mirrors’

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Other Enrollment Models?

  • Alternative forecasting in Budget
  • Consensus about enrollment projections
    • Registrar's office
    • Office of Institutional Research

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Fall SCH Projections AY22 – AY27

Alt Model Range: 42,119 – 51,204

Pro forma Weighted SCH Model: 46,105

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Fall 2023 New Student Funnel Snapshot

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What does Success look like?

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  • Backup slides / data

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13,004

Source: https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/

NOTE: Data in the clearinghouse is presented gendered by that organization.

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