Daily Market Journal

Date:

31.07.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Really interesting data today, some potentially bullish divergences here. These can all be invalidated if price impulses lower, but until price stays in this current area I would be looking for a push to the upside from here. “
• Price impulsed lower just now as I was doing the Journal, herby INVALIDATING the divergences from before.

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• No squiggle or thesis played out today. We pretty much just compressed into the H1 bands and thats all we did.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price tight consolidation, compression into the H1 bands
• The H1 bands turned also green which could be a trend signal if price holds up above them
• 50,100,200 EMA H1 also coming together, if price can hold up in this area this might be a decent area to push higher from after compressing into the bands
• QRA and FOMC pretty non-even today, nothing too bullish or bearish.
• BTC underperforming greatly today against Gold and stocks today
• BTC is so far also making an inside candle today, next candle will close with a high probability in the direction the inside candle breaks (study will drop tomorrow that I do about daily inside candles)

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =66206)

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• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly Open) price above = green monthly close incoming
• 68215.5 (Weekly Open) price below = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) flipped back to support quickly, no daily close below = bullish
• 67200 (67K Pivot) price lost it, needs to be reclaimed
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR) price spent a couple hours above it but fell back and rejected
• 70K (round number Pivot) price tested it, clear resistance level
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From BTC’s current ATH to the deepest point we went in this current consolidation
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom (the recent selloff that broke range low)

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. An overview of this consolidation phase, where the volume was distributed from the highest point all to the lowest point. The two key levels to watch are: 62800 VAL and 70K VAH.
1. A break of either of the above mentioned levels could determin the markets overall direction. Fake-outs could also be expected around these levels.
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2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price currently inside both Value Areas. Price wicked into the VAH (69200) of the recent downtrend’s area. Currently resistance so far.

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CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

9,54%

(-1,5% compared to

yesterday)

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BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• OI pretty much just slowly bleeding out, could be either longs cutting losses or just a general non-interest in the market by people
• Spot CVD strong here at this consolidation so far, shows some spot market buy pressure
• Funding below neutral
• Spot premium present

Data not much. OI closing out could actually be longs cutting their trades maybe. Which would be selling pressure what we also can see from Future CVDs a bit as they are sideways/down.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Big mass of long liquidation below
• Above we can see short areas appearing abov price slowly and the big are at 70K

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• No big out or downperformance today, ALTs and BTC quite side by side
• The monthly close will be the biggest on BTC in terms of %, second is Total 3, than Total 2 and the smallest from the four is ETH with a 6% smaller Monthly candle than BTC
• BTC D small red day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Close to the 2023 October levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 35.70 B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 14.61 B

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All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

40.9 %

Todays changes:

• 1B decrease in total OI

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• 910mil decrease in CME OI
• Other major exchange OI sideways

Todays changes:

• 150mil increase in total OI

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• Major exchange OI increases by 30-80mil

BTC possible paths

1. Bounce to 67K: Green path: We reverse again here at the lows after maybe taking out the lows, maybe vene touching into the 65K Pivot. We reverse back to 67K potentially setting up maybe for a bullish shift.

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• Chop above 65k: Orange path: We chop above the 65K, demand comes in to hold price up. We potentially look for a move after that.

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• Losing 65K: Red path: We lose the 65K Pivot which could lead to a flush down lower. Wouldn't really want to see daily closes below 65K tho, would mean a potential trend shift being in progress and deeper downside to come.

Stocks, Macro

• Gold managed to reclaim the daily bands after holding the 50 EMA. Bullish. It is now trying to reclaim the first high it set in this consolidation, which if reclaimed could lead to an instant move towards the current ATH. I would also now look on the daily bands again as trend support, price shouldnt lose them.

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• Dollar red day today, moving lower after rejecting the red daily bands. This could set up for an overall move lower, but it would first need to lose the support at 104 to go any lower.

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• S&P and NDQ big green days, probably blowing out a lot of bears who have shorted them. S&P currently trying to make a close above the daily Michael's EMAs. This both could be a place to reject and a lower high to form but could also see a liquidity grabbing push towards the highs.

Coins on the radar, Trade setups currently and for the future

• APU looking pretty cooked as it followed my red path
• Currently it also flipped the 200M MC level to resistance which is also quite a bearish sign
• We have a lot of support areas below, also the POC of the whole recent downtrend, so I’m sure it will find support somewhere if it is about to go lower
• But this probably just shows that it still needs some more time to go on a run (if it is going on a run)

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• Bit of news event failure so far today, something to note
• Powell on the FOMC Press Conference was a bit more dovish, he stated that if the data of inflation and the jobs markets will continue to stay the same in the next months there will be a september rate cut
• He also said when he was asked that they might also cut multiple times if its necessary, but so far thats a low % in the Fedwatch polls (around 10% chance of two cuts in september)
• So nothing extremely bullish or bearish today. We saw also a HUGE bunch of CME OI closing, probably OI closing for the end of the month, and OI that was in for anticipating an outcome on the FOMC meeting.

Further notes about the market - if any

Market could be at turning point here could see that. Closes below 65K on the daily chart would be an indication of a potential trend shift incoming and maybe paths back to the lows.

Holding 65K would lead to a bullish consolidation here, building value higher, holding the daily bands as trend support and consolidating in them. Could set up a nice august move.