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OPMAPS OPERATIONAL MILITARY ANALYTICS AND PRESENTATION – �DATA AND NARRATIVES IN MILITARY HISTORY AND BEYOND

SORIN ADAM MATEI, PHD

ASSOCIATE DEAN FOR RESEARCH, COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS

ROBERT KIRCHUBEL, PHD

POST-DOCTORAL RESEARCHER, COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS, RETIRED US ARMY LTCOL (R), ARMOR BRANCH

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WHO IS OPMAPS?

Ideamonger

Sorin Adam Matei

Social scientist historian with social mapping expertise

History degree

Creator of multiple interdisciplinary initiatives

Historian

Robert Kirchubel

Retired US LtCol – Armored Forces

Author of Eastern Front and Blitzkrieg Atlases (WWII)

Dissertation “German Generals and Political Engineering”

Software Developer

Rajesh Kalyanam

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WHAT IS OPMAPS?

Bring operational military mapping into the 21st century, exploit current, massive computing and graphics power.

Overcome limitations of traditional static maps.

Trust the data, know where it comes from.

Supporting data is quarriable and searchable.

Works on any operation for which detailed data exists, does not need to be combat.

Proof-of-concept pilot project examines WWII Battle of Smolensk, 10 July-10 September 1941.

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LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL STATIC MAPS

Gap between reality and potential; How to make sense out of difficult subject, with its own specialized symbology and vocabulary.

Often passed down along secondary literature, not sure of source, assumed to be legitimate.

Even good maps, including those on the internet (e.g. West Point Series) cannot be edited, student has no control over presentation.

Narrative drives maps, rather than vice versa.

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HOW AND WHY IS OPMAPS NEW?

Uses digital humanities data to support historical scholarship and advance our knowledge from representational to inferential.

Collaboration between experts in history, communication technology, and social sciences.

New historical method of collecting, visualizing, and interpreting operational military history.

Create a mapping database and visualization tools.

Use spatial-temporal statistical techniques.

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HOW COULD OPMAPS MATTER TO YOU?

YOU CAN BRING DATA BACK TO THE SPATIAL DECISION AND INTERPRETATION SPACE.

YOU FLATTEN THE ANALYTIC PROCESS: DATA, CODE, AND MAPS ARE TRANSPARENT AND OPEN

YOU CAN OVERCOME THE TEMPTATION TO VISUALIZE AT THE EXPENSE OF ANALYSIS.

YOU CAN CREATE MAPS THAT CAN GENERATE MORE MAPS AND NEW INTERPRETIVE MAPS

YOU CAN CHECK EXISTING NARRATIVES AGAINST PAST DATA

YOU CAN USE NEW WAYS TO ANALYZE DYNAMIC OPEARTIONAL ENVIRONMENTS

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THE BATTLE OF SMOLENSK, 10 JULY-10 SEPT 1941

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Essential milestone in Army Group Center’s drive on Moscow.

As scholars move Barbarossa’s culminating point ever earlier, Smolensk has replaced Kiev (mid-Sept) and Moscow (early Dec).

Goes through numerous stages, action-reaction-counterreaction by both sides.

Representative of operational and tactical levels of war.

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MAP MAKING WORKFLOW

Primary data – original staff / command maps – OKW – “Hitler’s Maps

Digitize at division level:

Location

Frontage shape

Direction of movement

Fractional presence

Move raw digital data (time-space coordinates) to open source map (OWS)

Create fully visible, open source code to animate and analyze the movement of the troops

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HOW WE CREATE A MAP ANALYTIC ENVIRONMENT

  • Start with primary source or hyper-reliable secondary sources.
    • Military High Command (OKW) twice daily situation maps – One every other day
    • Manual drawing with quality control.
    • Geocoded on top of original maps
  • Add front lines
  • Determine central point of front line, place unit symbol

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OPMAPS ARE FIRST OF ALL DATASETS.

  • Geography grad student and programming post-doc created and refined divisional database with Rob as quality control:

Unit: 7 Pz Div

Date

Strength

Lat-Long

Activity:

Moving,

Stationary

Type of

unit

Division

or non-

divisional

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MAP DATA MOVED TO OPEN SOURCE MAP (OSW). PUBLISHING AND EDITING ONLINE WITH NO SPECIALIZED SOFTWARE

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ADDING DEPTH AND DETAILS

  • Divisions and their fractions identifiable by type, strength, and ID
  • Theoretical fire envelope for massed units calculated on the basis of combined units firepower

15 Aug

Inf Div

Mot Inf Div

Pz Div

  • Assign “strength” variable (PZ > INF)
  • Calculate “massed fire envelope”
    • Heatmap
    • Colors increase in intensity as troops become denser
  • Calculate average movement vector = “effective reach”

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THE BATTLE OF SMOLENSK 1941�PANZERS IN THE DUST?

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THE BATTLE UNFOLDS

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THE BATTLE – BLOW BY BLOW

July 11

July 13

July 20

July 30

August 11

August 20

September 09

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AVERAGE VECTORS OF ATTACK

All infantry divisions

All Panzer divisions

Vector of attack:

  • A calculated measure that indicates the average “penetration distance and direction” for a unit or for group(s) of units
  • It measures the ”effective reach” of each unit or group of units
  • It “tucks in” or expands the exposed edges of an advance, indicating how far the bulk of the forces really got.

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INTERACTIVE MAPS

  • Battle Animation
    • Overall and unit level movement tracker with nominal fire envelope
    • http://matei.org/url/opmapsanimation

  • Vector calculator

All infantry divisions

All Panzer divisions

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SHORT TERM FUTURE PLANS

Add corps and army level analysis

Analyze operational level

Add Soviet data – all levels of analysis

Collaboration with Russian / Soviet military experts (US or abroad)

Adding strength data – move from abstract / nominal to concrete data

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MEDIUM TO LONG TERM FUTURE PLANS

Calculate fire envelope by

Lethality potential

    • standardized effective destruction firepower
    • average weapon range
    • Mobility

Calculate “Schwerpunkt potential” at given locations

ratio of combatants’ local strength

ratio of movement momentum

Simulation scenarios

Changing direction of movement

Changing fire envelope parameters

Interdicting directions of movement

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WE ARE SEEKING COLLABORATORS

Historical work – mapping new spaces, ask new questions

Development work – what types of analytic tools would you like to use?

Visualization work – what methods of visualization would you like too see?

Applications: Can our tools be applied to current military operational tactical or strategic analysis?

Automation: How can we add AI and ML to operational analysis?

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QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION…