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AND INSIGHTS FROM THE 2022 MAUNA LOA ERUPTION

LAVA FLOW MODELING

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LAVA FLOWS: MAUNA LOA, 2022

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LESSON OBJECTIVES

Simulate lava flows using tools on the VICTOR platform

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Analyze the impact of input parameters on hazard forecast for a real-world eruption

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Compare and contrast outputs from three lava flow models

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Students will be able to...

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Types of Flow Modeling

Deterministic Modeling:

“Where?” “When?” and “How?”

Probabilistic Modeling

“Where?” and “How Likely?”

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Short Term Forecasting:

Goals: “Where will lava go from this vent, and how quickly will it get there?”

Long Term Forecasting:

Goals: Where will lava go, given probabilities of vent locations

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RECALL...

  • Benchmarking

Comparing the performance of models when simulating a specific case with a known solution

  • Model Intercomparison

Comparing the performance of models to each other when the solution is not known

Model Assessment Frameworks:

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Topography +

Vent Only

CELLULAR AUTOMATA/ LOBES

Depth Averaged

1D or 2D

FULLY 3D MODELS

DOWNFLOW, MULTIFLOW

MAGFLOW, MOLASSES, MrLavaLoba, Q_LavHa

MAGFLOW, MOLASSES, MrLavaLoba, Q_LavHa

OpenFOAM, FLUENT, COMSOL, Flow3D

Complexity of Physics Considered and Numerics Used

Where?

(will the lava go)

How Quickly?

(will the lava travel)

Simplest

Complex

RECALL:MODELING

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

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Popular in volcanology for simplicity and speed

Rules for transferring lava between cells, based on probability, slope, temperature, etc

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

Model 1: Molasses

MOdular LAva Simulation Software for Earth Science, or MOLASSES for short, is a probabalistic lava flow simulation tool.

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

Model 1: Molasses

Based on the LavaPL algorithm.

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Lava Flow Behavior

Lava spreads over a DEM based on thickness and slope rules.

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

Model 1: Molasses

Modular Framework: Customizable for grid connections and slope effects.

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Uses 8 neighboring cells to simulate realistic lava flow.

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Proven to reproduce natural lava flows with >80% accuracy,

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Model 2: Mr Lava Loba:

MrLavaLoba is a stochastic model for simulating lava flows, written in Python.

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

Model 2: Mr Lava Loba:

Probabilistic code simulating lava spread with elliptical parcels.

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Lava parcels bud based on slope and adjustable settings.

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Predicts likely lava coverage and thickness, not flow progression.

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CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODELS

Model 2: Mr Lava Loba:

Can simulate different lava dynamics, such as pahoehoe or channelized-'a‘ā flows.

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Requires topography and erupted volume to simulate the downhill path and settling of lava parcels.

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DEPTH AVERAGED MODELS

Physics-based models solving various equations to help determine how quickly the lava will travel.

Simplest form:

Jeffreys Equation

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DEPTH AVERAGED MODELS

Model 3: IMEX

IMEX-Lava is a depth-averaged numerical lava flow model

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DEPTH AVERAGED MODELS

Model 3: IMEX

Solves conservation equations for:

      • Mass
      • Momentum
      • Energy (through temperature).

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Outputs: lava flow extent, thickness, temperature and velocity, over time

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CONNECTION TO OUR LAB:

Using insights from the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption, you will compare model outputs using the following demonstrations for three VICTOR models.

December 7, 2022 — Mauna Loa Fissure 3 and Near-Vent Lava Channel

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CONNECTION TO OUR LAB:

Overview of Procedures:

Set up common inputs, e.g.:

    • Vent location
    • DEM file
    • Effusion duration / flux / volume

Set up model-specific inputs for Molasses

Run Molasses

Set up model-specific inputs for MrLavaLoba

Run MrLavaLoba

Set up model-specific inputs for IMEX

Run IMEX

Visualize Results

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MAUNA LOA, 2022: LOCATION AND SIGNIFICANCE

    • Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on Earth.
    • From its base to its summit, it reaches 55,700 ft.
    • Before its eruption in 2022, it had last erupted 38 years prior in 1984.

References: USGS [1] [2]

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MAUNA LOA, 2022: DATES AND DURATION

On November 27th 2022, magma broke through the surface of Mauna Loa’s summit caldera. The eruption ended 12 days later on December 10th 2022.

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NOTES ON ERUPTION AND FLOW PATH

    • The eruption began in Moku‘ āweoweo, a caldera within Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park.
    • Initial lava flows covered much of the caldera floor but soon moved outside the caldera.
    • Lava flowed from fissures southwest of the summit in the early phase of the eruption.
    • By the morning of November 28, the summit eruption and southwest activity stopped.
    • Lava then flowed from new fissures on the Northeast Rift Zone, near the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory.

Reference: USGS

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December 8, 2022 — Mauna Loa Fissure 3 Fountain

December 10, 2022 — Mauna Loa Fissure 3

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A new cloud-based cyberinfrastructure platform for volcano scientists.

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Volcanology Infrastructure for Computational Tools and Resources, or VICTOR.

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VICTOR

    • VICTOR is meant to be a platform for every step of the computational process.
    • Here, you can write, run, and analyze models and their associated data.
    • Software libraries provide flexibility and connection to online data respositories
    • VICTOR helps volcanologists at universities and observatories to find, use, compare, and link models of eruption processes by providing a central access portal and standardized workflows based on a JupyterHub environment.

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WHAT IS THE CLOUD?

Remote compute resources.

WHAT IS PYTHON?

A versatile, readable language used in data science, AI, and more, with flexible variables that don’t need type assignment.

BACKGROUND ON VICTOR

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WHAT IS THE JUPYTER PROJECT?

A web-based platform supporting multiple languages, allowing users to create interactive notebooks that combine code, text, and media for an enhanced experience.

WHAT IS A JUPYTER NOTEBOOK?

A document that mixes code and rich text, allowing for both explanation and execution in one place.

BACKGROUND ON VICTOR

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  • Navigate to victor.ldeo.columbia.edu in your browser, and follow the signup button on the far right of the navigation menu.
  • Complete the Google Form.

HOW TO REGISTER

    • After the VICTOR team has verified your information, you will receive an email notifying you of access to the VICTOR hub.
    • Sign in using the provider and credentials you indicated.

PREFER TO FOLLOW A VIDEO? USE THIS RESOURCE:

    • Note: VICTOR currently supports authentication based on GitHub, Google, and Microsoft accounts

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OVERVIEW OF VICTOR

Getting Started

Anatomy of the Lab

Shared

After navigating to:

hub.victorproject.org, choose a server.

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Getting Started

Anatomy of the Lab

Shared

OVERVIEW OF VICTOR

The notebook will open a launcher on the user’s home directory:

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Getting Started

Anatomy of the Lab

Shared

OVERVIEW OF VICTOR

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OVERVIEW OF VICTOR

Getting Started

Anatomy of the Lab

Shared

To get started with VICTOR, open a new terminal

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When the terminal opens, type ‘victor setup’ then press enter.

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Input the number correlating to each model (our lab will use MOLASSES, MrLavaLoba and IMEX

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You will find the folder for the model added to your files. Repeat these steps for each model.