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How to Get Along in

an Election Year?

Michael Abramson

abramson53@gmail.com

July 7, 2024

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The problem

Of course, we can get along, otherwise we wouldn’t survive. But how?

Three pillars of social cohesion:

  1. Codependency (common interests, shared prosperity, balance of power)
  2. Communication (common language, media, personal interactions)
  3. Trust (in institutions, leaders, and other people)

But we can’t all get along all the time. There are times when a society breaks down (see Political Dynamics and the Future of Democracy).

Can this election year be one of those trying times?

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The problem

The logic of peace:

  • The goal is to solve problems peacefully by following shared rules
  • Violence is considered unacceptable and immoral (with exceptions)
  • If even a minority resorts to violence, the logic of peace can fail

The logic of war:

  • The goal is to win, and defeating the aggressor is the main path to peace
  • Violence is acceptable and even desirable (when against the enemy)
  • The rules of war (e.g. Geneva Conventions) are limited and generally unenforceable

J. A. Goldstone, P. Turchin. Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’ (2020)

“Our model shows there is plenty of dangerous tinder piled up, and any spark could generate an inferno.”

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Peace

War

Violence

Aggression

Victory over an aggressor

Reconciliation

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The problem

The critical question: How can we prevent a civil war?

Lessons from aviation: How can we prevent collisions between aircraft?

  • Near Mid-Air Collisions (NMACs) are exceedingly rare (1 to billion per flight hour)
  • Another aircraft is not trying to hit you!
  • The main cause of NMACs is human error

The answer: Separation Assurance

  • Situational Awareness
  • Cooperative (with other aircraft and ATC)
  • Collision avoidance as the last resort

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Flirting with the logic of war

Progressive left: Critical Race Theory (CRT):

  • Marxism on steroids: seeks to elevate people from all kinds of oppression
  • Illiberal: assumes collective rather than individual guilt and responsibility
  • Sees the world through the lens of eternal war between “oppressors” and “oppressed”
    • The “oppressors” are the “bad guys” by definition (no matter what they do)
    • The “oppressed” are the “good guys” by definition (no matter what they do)
  • Not falsifiable: any criticism of CRT is dismissed as an evidence of latent racism
  • Hostility to America and collective West viewed as “colonialists”
  • Affinity with socialist countries (Cuba, Venezuela)
  • Provides theoretical basis for “liberated ethnic studies” at schools
  • Leads to double moral standards, anti-semitism, and justification of violence for “the right cause” (against “oppressors”)

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Flirting with the logic of war

Conservative backlash: Make America Great Again (MAGA):

  • Triggered by resentment against too fast changes and growing diversity
  • Fueled by cultural and economic anxiety (strangers in their own land), with racist, xenophobic, and anti-semitic overtones
  • A cult of a strong leader (Trump) considered as a counterbalance against “liberal” (but in fact illiberal) ideas like CRT
  • Rejects any accusations against the leader as a “witch hunt”
  • Widespread belief in conspiracy theories
  • Distrust for American and international institutions
  • Affinity with dictators (Putin)
  • Violence in action (Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Jan 6 2021)

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Flirting with the logic of war

Progressive backlash: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI):

  • Triggered by Indivisible Resistance to Trump, #MeToo, and BLM protests
  • Still supports good liberal ideas (universal healthcare, affordable housing, clean energy), but fails to build broad coalition around them
  • Supports increasingly controversial policies (defunding the police, open borders)
  • DEI - $3.4 billion market in the United States
    • Diversity - but not diversity of opinions
    • Equity - but not equality
    • Inclusion - but limited to “marginal” groups (“oppressors” are not welcome)
  • Fully embraces illiberal CRT, pushing it to extremes (cancel culture)
  • Affinity with international terrorists (Iran, Hamas)
  • Violence is further normalized (Antifa, BLM riots, calls to “bring Intifada to America”)

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Flirting with the logic of war

Conservative backlash on steroids: Trump 2.0

  • Why is D. Trump so popular? Because he is:
    • Against DEI
    • Against “pro-Palestinian” protests and “liberals destroying the country”
    • Against Iran and its proxies (Hamas)
    • Against uncontrolled immigration
  • Trump can be more dangerous this time:
    • Hijacking democracy (Project 2025)
    • Losing is not an option because of criminal charges
    • The Proud Boys are back and standing by

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What can we do

Even if both sides don’t want a civil war - can it become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

“Civil War” movie reactions: “Can that really happen in America?”

Understandably, people are concerned about how bad things might get. But we can think about worst-case scenarios without speaking as if those scenarios are certain or likely. We can discuss our concerns while seeing the downsides to being overly pessimistic and highly certain.

A 2020 paper on polarization put it this way: “On one hand, polarization may be on a self-reinforcing upward trajectory… on the other hand it may have recently reached the apex of its pendulum swing.”

We all play a role in building a less toxic and more stable America. We can demand less contemptuous and polarizing behaviors from leaders, activists, and people in the media.

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What can we do

Build a broad coalition for peace and democracy (as in Progressive Era):

  • Republicans who don’t support Trump
  • Trump supporters rejecting political extremism and violence
  • Democrats who don’t support illiberal CRT/DEI ideology
  • Progressives supporting DEI goals, but rejecting political extremism and violence
  • Pragmatic non-partisans unhappy with both parties

No matter where we are politically:

  • Distance ourselves from political extremists, don’t view them as our allies
  • If they resort to violence, call the police, not the militants from opposite side
  • Be ready for non-violent mass actions when and where they could protect democracy

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What can we do

It’s time to talk about politics. But how?

You can win (almost) any argument by discussion with love (Socratic dialogue):

  • Winning is moving closer to the truth - together with your partner
  • Don’t be afraid to change your opinion, or to have no opinion for the moment
  • Accept that you don’t know the whole truth
  • If you are sure that you are right, you are probably wrong
  • The less you push - the more you get
  • Profess and assume good faith
  • Speak for yourself and share your experience
  • Be curious and ask questions
  • Listen carefully, try to understand, and ask more questions
  • Try to find common ground in anything, and then expand it as much as you can

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What can we do

Restore communication and trust (Braver Angels, Crossing Party Lines, Living Room Conversations, Institute for Multipartisan Education, and more).

And yes, it can work:

Make voting easy and cheating hard

  • Israel-Palestine Points of Agreement from BA workshops and 1:1 conversations

Pro-Israel, pro-Palestinian, against Hamas, and against the war

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What can we do

Develop common political agenda (Developmental Politics, Agenda Setters by Downsize DC, FixUS Solutions Landscape, CommonSense American, Forward Party).

Support efforts to implement this agenda (Unite America, Democracy Found, RepresentUs, FairVote, Forward California)

Focus on most impactful reforms (see K.M.Gehl, M.E.Porter. The Politics Industry)

  • Open primaries with top five candidates advancing to general elections
  • Ranked-choice voting

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What can we do

Find and vote for pragmatic common ground candidates.

And yes, we have them (see Problem Solvers Caucus in US Congress, Forward Party - endorsed candidates, Common Ground Scorecard in CA):

  • Sam Liccardo

As the mayor of a city of one million residents, I routinely reached out to people who disagreed with me to find common ground.

  • Ro Khanna

Has worked across the aisle to deliver on legislation to invest in science and technology, create millions of good paying tech jobs and revitalize American manufacturing and production.

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What can we do

More ideas from discussion:

  • Check the sources of information, as this could be disinformation from adversaries (see Russian Spy Plot To Sow 'Panic and Terror' in US Leaked in Bombshell Report)
  • Be a strong country as an unifying idea for the U.S.?
    • With a caveat that “strong” implies not just military strength, but a strong foundation: infrastructure, education, healthcare, and national unity
    • An importance of “soft power
  • Refrain from casual use of emotionally charged words like “fascism”

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What can we do

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What can we do

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