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Articulating a �Theory of Change

Module 6

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Introduction

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By the end of this module, you will be able to...

Understand the purpose of a theory of change,
Analyze a theory of change for plausibility, feasibility, and testability, and�
Create a theory of change for your own project.

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What is a theory of change?

Articulates chain of reasoning.

Links project activities to participant outcomes!

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(CAISE 2011)

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Theory of Change (ToC)

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If...

Then...

then… If...

You can think of a Theory of Change as a series of IF→THEN statements. There is no limit to the number of links in the chain.

For example: IF you brush your teeth → THEN you will have fewer cavities. But, what happens in between these two statements that could more fully articulate the chain of causation?

If you brush teeth, then food will be removed from your teeth.

If you remove food from your teeth, then plaque will not form.

If plaque doesn’t form, then bacteria will have nothing to feed on.

If bacteria have nothing to feed on, then they won’t produce tooth weakening acids.

If tooth weakening acids are not formed, then you’ll have fewer cavities.

In a science museum context, we might say “if we stay open later, then more working adults will participate.” But there are probably steps in between what we’re doing, staying open later, and what we hope will happen because of it, increase the attendance of working adults.

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Why is a Theory of Change useful?

uncovers assumptions
reveals intermediate steps
exposes gaps in the chain

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(CAISE 2011)

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Analyzing a Theory of Change

Plausibility: does it make sense?

Feasibility: how likely is it?

Testability: is it measurable?

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(CAISE 2011)

There are three characteristics to consider when looking at your theory of change: plausibility, feasibility, and testability.

Plausibility is how logical your causal links are.
Some example questions to consider would be: Do the pathways of the Theory of Change make sense? Are the links and outcomes in the chain in the right order? Where are there gaps in the links and outcomes that are unaccounted for?

Feasibility is the likelihood that your project activities will actually work- that they will achieve your intended outcomes and all the smaller steps in between.
Some questions to consider would be: Are the expected outcomes reasonable? Is the scope of the outcomes reasonable, given the project activities? Do you need additional resources? Is the timeline reasonable?

Testability is how measurable your outcomes are.
Some questions to consider would be: Are the outcomes ones that could be assessed or measured in some way? Do we want to measure all outcomes (both intermediate and final)? What evidence would we need in order to know that we were successful in reaching the outcomes?

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If…

Then…

And then...

Example

If we find ways to get people outside…

it will strengthen their connection to nature and place…

and make them more likely to enjoy and protect it.

Community Conservation

Is it plausible? Feasible? Testable?

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Example

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Is it plausible? Feasible? Testable?

Multimedia Experiences

Emotion

Content Understanding

Behavior Intention and Action

Mediation

Theater and VR

Mediation

Here is another example of a theory of change. You’ll notice that it looks a little different. Part of it is linear, but another part is not.

Multimedia experiences like theater and virtual reality can increase learning and content understanding and lead to a willingness to become engaged in environmentally-minded behavior. The theory of change is that if students engage in the experience then they will be more likely to take action. The emotions that occur as a response to these experiences are called mediators and are the steps in between that produce the final result.

Again, let’s think about its plausibility, feasibility, and testability.

Is it plausible? Does it make sense? Does it make sense that taking part in a VR experience make someone increase their understanding about the environment?

Is it feasible? How likely is it that a theater experience would cause an emotional response?

Is it testable? Is there a way we can find out if theater and VR experiences will cause someone to take environmental action?

What do you think?

Are they other intermediate steps you think are missing?

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Example

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The museum will offer activities on Wednesday evenings.

Working adults will be able to attend the museum after work.

Adults will see museums as an evening social outing.

There will be an increase in attendance among working adults.

Is it plausible? Feasible? Testable?

The final example takes us back to the introduction slide.

If the museum stays open later and offers activities, then there will be an increase in attendance among working adults. The two intermediate steps reveal an assumption about this line of thought. That assumption is that the main barrier to working adult attendance is that they’re working during much of the museum’s operating hours. The other “missing middle” step is that working adults will view going to the museum in the evening as a social event like going to a movie or bar with friends.

Is this theory of change plausible? Does it make sense that adults will attend the museum if it’s open later and has something fun to do?

Is it feasible? Could the museum offer activities in the evening for adults?

And, is it testable? Could the museum extend hours once a week for a month and see if adult attendance increases?

The answer to all three is yes...probably.

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Your Project’s Theory of Change

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Wrap up/Highlights

A Theory of Change is a cause-effect “chain” that “links” your project activities to your intended participant outcomes.
A Theory of Change is useful because it allows you to:

Plausibility: does it make sense?

Feasibility: how likely is it?

Testability: is it measurable?

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Conclusion

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For further information

Aspen Institute. Roundtable on Comprehensive Community Initiatives for Children. (1997). Voices from the field: Learning from the early work of comprehensive community initiatives. Aspen Inst Human Studies.

Center for Advancement of Informal Science Education (CAISE). (2011). Principal Investigator's Guide: Managing Evaluation in Informal STEM Education Projects. [online] Available online at: https://www.informalscience.org/principal-investigators-guide-managing-evaluation-informal-stem-education-projects-pi-guide

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In the next module, you will be able to…

Understand and define a logic model,

Become able to compare and contrast a logic model and a theory of change, and

Develop a logic model for your project.

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Stay connected

Visit us: https://research.ced.ncsu.edu/impactnc/

Dr. K.C. Busch

Assistant Professor of STEM Education

North Carolina State University | College of Education

kbusch@ncsu.edu

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Credits

K.C. Busch

Lynn Chesnut

Regina Ayala Chávez

Aimee Fraulo

Kathryn T. Stevenson

Katy May

Lincoln Larson

Madeline Hinckle

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