Daily Market Journal

Date:

23.07.2024 Tuesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “You wouldnt want to see spot market selling as price is grinding higher. Might be a sign of a distribution local top here. Other data pretty neutral.”
• Was a decent sign from the data yesterday. Spot CVD down as price is grabbing liquidity multiple times from the highs.

​

• “Distribution: Red path: We grab the highs or reject from here as an FTR pattern, we move to the lows losing the 67K pivot and showing some potential weakness. “
• We saw the red path thesis play out well (the squiggle not that much). Price did an FTR pattern, lost the 67K pivot, retested it bearish and went lower.

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Since yesterdays push into the Weekly Open price has been down only
• It tried to hold the 67K Pivot with multiple wicks but failed which is a sign of selling not getting absorbed by buyers = bears in control
• Price flipped the H1 bands red, and gave a PERFECT bearish retest of the 67K Pivot.
• Price rejected the Pivot right away, and went to new lows in the structure
• Price filled in the wick left by the Biden news
• Price currently in the middle between the 65 and 67K Pivots.

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =65629)

​

• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• DOWN:
• 53329.5 (05.07 friday’s lows)

​

• HTF Opens
• 62766.1 (Monthly Open) price above = bulls in control
• 68138.0 (Weekly Open) clear resistance, price rejected it = bears in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

​

• OB levels
• 51300 - 52050 (Bullish OB)

​

• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) price gapped through it with high volume, support until proven otherwise
• 67200 (67K Pivot) price lost it, retested it and is now below = resistance
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR)
• 70K (round number Pivot)
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew up 2 Volume profiles:

1. From BTC’s current ATH to the deepest point we went in this current consolidation
2. From June’s highs to the current bottom (the recent selloff that broke range low)

Why am I looking at these Volume Profiles?

1. An overview of this consolidation phase, where the volume was distributed from the highest point all to the lowest point. The two key levels to watch are: 62800 VAL and 70K VAH.
1. A break of either of the above mentioned levels could determin the markets overall direction. Fake-outs could also be expected around these levels.
2. ​
2. This selloff we had since June was pretty much a down only grind, full with bullish cope. The people who bought on the way down thinking we find support at 60K are now underwater.
• Reclaiming the Value Area (marked with green) of this selloff could be a clear bullish sign from the market, signaling strength

Todays update: Price currently inside both Value Areas. Decent sign of the downtrend being over, and a sideways or up market to come next.

​

CME Annualized Basis

The annualized basis is how much % one could make on an annualized basis with longing Spot and shorting Futures.

Historically anything below 0% is a huge buy, and anything around or below 5% is a strong buy.

If we see the Annualized Basis touch below 5% in bull market environment it is a no-brainer spot buy opportunity.

Current level:

12,66%�(+2,41% growth)

​

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Since the friday lows price is up 4% as OI is still up more than 7%
• All CVDs showing market sell pressure as price is trending lower
• Funding below neutral
• Spot premium present

Data okayish. Wouldnt hit me really bullish. Price has a gap below with excess OI open in the market. Market sell pressure present since the weekly open. My subjective opinion would be: lower or chop.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Areas right below price together with the gap below
• Some areas also at the highs, might squeeze them sometime

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• BTC down the most today, ALTs holding up better probably because of ETH strength
• ETH green today, ETF launch
• BTC D big red day

ETH ETF launch

Price wise basically just chop people up,

no directional move yet.

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Borrow rates sideways. Below the pre-eth etf news levels.

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

​

BTC OI

​

ALL OI: 36.05 B

​

​

ETH OI

​

ALL OI: 15.28 B

​

All open OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

42,3 %

+2.2% increase

Todays changes:

• 1.05B decrease in total OI

​

• 440mil decrease in CME OI
• 120mil decrease in Binance OI
• 250mil decrease in Bybit OI
• Around 100-100mil decrease in Bitget and OKX OI

Todays changes:

• 370mil increase in total OI

​

• 270mil increase in Bybit OI
• Other major exchange OI sideways

BTC possible paths

1. Short squeeze: Green path: Price bottoms out before reaching the 65K Pivot and squeezes some shorts towards the 67K Pivot.

​

• Chop, holding above 65K: Orange path: We test the 65K Pivot and hold it tomorrow. We might chop around it and have a bounce into the H1 bands too.

​

• Gap fill: Red path: We fill in the gap to 64K, we lose the 65K Pivot too and fall below. It could line up as a HTF higher low and losing the Pivot might be just a bear trap after all and taking liquidity. We’ll see.

Stocks, Macro

• Gold trying to hold the 1D bands, if it can hold them it really offers a bullish setup for a continuation higher.

​

• Dollar coming up into the Daily red bands. A possible are for it to find some resistance temporarily. Except that just probably chop here around the lows.

​

• S&P and NDQ; NDQ much weker here, daily bands are almost red (not yet, couple days to go still), S&P holding up better, bands sideways and it is compressing into them. Holding 5530 for the S&P would be key, below that probably start of a downtrend, above that still some chance of grabbing the highs or going for a new push.

Coins on the radar, Trade setups currently and for the future

• I decided not to add ETH to my spot portfolio as I mentioned it a while back. It isn’t worth to own ETH really when you can own BTC and SOL. Just adds more diversification.
• BUT, I sure will trade ETH if a swing setup presents, which is presenting itself probably now.
• If the daily candle closes above the 12EMA my swing system tells me to enter which I will do tomorrow morning.
• I’m quite sure I will get stopped out on this one, but need to take the setup.
• Will risk 1% of my trading portfolio if I get an entry on it.

Market conclusion / thoughts / future outlooks

• There is a gap below on BTC all the way to 64K.
• Sure everyone’s looking at it that it is there and it could fill.

​

• But people just turned bullish at the top again above 67K, and now they are just coping and holding on to their losing positions.

​

• Thats why I think this gap below could really be filled. Daily bands are below, 65K Pivot support is below too.
• Data weak too which I mentioned on the data slide.

​

Further notes about the market - if any

• There is a saying: "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck" , meaning when it is just weak and there are clear areas below with bearish data to back it up it’s probably just going to go lower.

​

• Really note the word PROBABLY: We might also hold and not go lower, and frontrun the gap and everyone who’s waiting for it. Anything can happen.

​