1 of 11

Lorne Stockman, Research Co-Director

Oil Change International

November 2021

​

lorne@priceofoil.org

www.priceofoil.org/gas

LNG Contracts – a wall against the clean energy revolution

2 of 11

Outline

2

  • LNG business model requires long-term take-or-pay contracts
  • Locking in gas over the next 20+ years is particularly risky because:

​

  • 1.5oC means we need to use less gas.
  • Renewables will be cheaper in most of Asia within 5 years.
  • Renewables and CCGT don’t play well together.

​

3 of 11

4 of 11

4

5 of 11

5

Japanese Utilities Over-contracted LNG After Fukushima

6 of 11

6

7 of 11

1.5oC means we need to use less gas

7

Global Gas Demand in a 1.5oC Scenario Compared with Business-as-Usual

8 of 11

8

Levelized (unsubsidized) Cost of Electricity – Global Average

Electricity from Renewables is Cheap

Source: Lazard

9 of 11

10 of 11

CCGT & Renewables Don’t Play Well Together

11 of 11

Lorne Stockman – lorne@priceofoil.org

www.priceofoil.org/gas

Thank You.