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The Most Important Decision in World War II

Victoria Mold, Steven Silva, Vinay Balani, Nikshya Deoja, Zhangyu Huang, �

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Content

Context

Background

Aftermath

Decision Analysis

Decision Assessment

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Context, Background, and Aftermath

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What is D-Day?

The Battle of Normandy in World War II
The battle began on June 6, 1944 and lasted from June through August 1944
Resulted in the Allied liberation of Western Europe from Nazi Germany’s control
156,000 American, British and Canadian forces landed on five beaches along a 50-mile stretch of the heavily fortified coast of France’s Normandy region
The invasion was one of the largest amphibious military assaults in history and required extensive planning

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Background

Hundreds of thousands of soldiers, sailors, and airmen were staged for Operation Overlord, the invasion of Europe
The mission had been delayed for a month and did not execute other operations to build and gather the supplies they needed
Eisenhower and Churchill met on the evening of June 2, 1944 to review the weather forecast
The forecast for the chosen day, June 5, called for cloudy skies, rain, and heavy seas
Eisenhower decided to delay until June 6, the tides would be not be favorable for two weeks.
4,000 warships, 10,000 aircraft, and 160,000 troops
Paratrooper casualties were estimated to be as high as 75%

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Events Leading to D-Day

The Germans occupied France from May 1940

Planning for the invasion began in 1941

In 1943, Erwin Rommel was charged with defending the coast of France with a 2,400 mile Atlantic Wall

The Allied forces landed in France’s Normandy region, on five separate heavily fortified beaches

The battle lasted from June 1944 to August 1944

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Aftermath

US: 29,000 deaths, 101,600 injured or missing
BRITAIN: 11,000 deaths, 54,000 injured or missing
CANADA: 5,000 deaths, 13,000 injured or missing
FRANCE: 12,200 injured or missing
GERMANY: 23,019 death, 67,060 injured, 198,616 missing

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Decision Analysis

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Deciding to Pursue Operation Overlord

Utilitarianism, Prospect Theory, Rights and Common Good Approaches to Ethics

German control of Western Europe, North Africa, and parts of the Soviety Union during World War II
Nazi control led to unwarranted killings of Jewish, Polish, and Russian peoples, as well as those disabled, mentally ill, homosexual, and addicted
Violation of basic human rights
Roosevelt and Churchill knew that going to war, and Operation Overlord specifically, would lead to mass casualty
Risk of death was the price to pay for freedom

In any war, the question comes up: do the ends justify the means? This was the case in 1941 when the idea for Operation Overlord first came to light. WW2 had almost all of Western Europe, North Africa, and parts of the Soviet Union owned by German troops or ruled by fascist governments like Spain and Italy. Under Adolf Hitler’s rule, German Nazis set out to abolish Jewish, Polish, and Russian peoples, as well as those who were disabled, mentally ill, homosexual, or addicts in an effort to “cleanse” the population and only maintain the “master race.” Men, women, children. It was a horrific time as people were killed or sent to concentration camps, where they often found the same fate. This is the scene that the Allied forces were trying to stop, but they knew that going to war would lead to thousands of casualties. It did not stop them. In 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill knew that a massive invasion of mainland Europe was necessary if they wanted to win the war and see a surrender from Nazi Germany. It would either be the most successful mission that would bring an end to the war or one of the most catastrophic battles. Either way, it would mean putting Allied troops at risk of mass casualty. But ultimately, the ends justified the means and the perceived gains outweighed the perceived losses. The risk of death was the price to pay for freedom, protection of rights, and a common good. This is the sentiment that Operation Overlord, or D-Day, was born out of.

Photo Source �https://prologue.blogs.archives.gov/2015/09/02/victory-americans-everywhere-celebrated-the-end-of-world-war-ii-in-1945/

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Planning for D-Day

System 2 Thinking

First consideration of a mainland Europe invasion in 1941
Multiple operations (Bolero, Torch, Husky) carried out 1941-1943 leading up to main attack
Roosevelt and Churchill originally scheduled D-Day for May 1944
Normandy determined as the landing site
Eisenhower appointed Supreme Allied Commander for Operation Overlord
Air raids to deplete German forces and level rail network used for sending troops and supplies
Trainings carried out in preparation
Date rescheduled three times, the last being due to impending bad weather
D-Day officially underway June 6, 1944

Planning for D-Day was years in the making. At the Washington Conference from December 1941 to January 1942, Roosevelt and Churchill agreed to a “Europe first” strategy in which they would concentrate on defeating Germany. This marked the start of the events that would eventually lead up to D-Day. In April 1942 came Operation Bolero in which the U.S. started building forces in Britain to prepare for D-Day, followed by Operation Torch in North Africa in November 1942 and Operation Husky in Italy in July 1943. These battles were pursued upon agreement that Allied forces were not yet ready for a full scale D-Day operation.

In May 1943, Roosevelt and Churchill scheduled D-Day for May 1944. In August that same year, COSSAC considered the landing site for the operation everywhere in France, from Brittany to Pas-de-Calais (pronounced Pahd-Calee), but ultimately landed on Normandy, which had sandy beaches similar to those in England where troops could train and test military equipment on. Normandy would also be more unexpected to the German forces. Then, in November 1943, construction started on the Mulberry Harbours, which would allow troops to quicker land resources, including men and equipment. In December 1943, Dwight D. Eisenhower was appointed Supreme Allied Commander of Operation Overlord. Starting in January 1944, planning for D-Day was full steam. In drafting plans, the commanders found that more troops would be needed for naval and aircraft so they delayed the planned date from May 1st to 31st. In the meantime, troops began running drills and scoped out the Normandy beaches. Air forces conducted raids over German cities to deplete German forces, making it difficult for them to recover, and the French rail system, making it hard for the Germans to use the railway to send troops and supplies. The Royal Navy established minefields to keep German torpedo boats from attacking the Allied ships.

By April 1944, there was a draft D-Day plan. In May 1944 came Exercise Fabius, which was the largest and last training before D-Day. D-Day was then again delayed from May 31 to June 5-7 based on the tides. Allied troops start setting out for their posts at the end of May. Bad weather postponed the attack from June 5 to June 6. On June 6, forces moved in. This entire timeline is presented to show that nothing about D-Day was fast and automatic. Decisions were made analytically, with extreme thought and effort, not to mention that the planning was essentially three years in the making and by no means a quick decision. Those deciding on when and how to prepare for D-Day were faced with some of the most complex decisions and, knowing they had lives in their hands, had to consider the many scenarios and outcomes that could be. This demonstrates a clear system 2 thinking approach.

Photo Sources

Roosevelt & Churchill: https://fdr.blogs.archives.gov/2019/02/05/fdr-churchill-and-their-secret-code-names-for-casablanca/

Eisenhower: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/14/this-day-in-politics-october-14-894857

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Selecting Eisenhower to Lead

Expertise, Cognitive Trust

Knowledge of military strategy
Record of military successes: North Africa and Italy
History of solving complex problems and making good decisions under intense pressure
Ability to bring people from different countries and backgrounds together for a common goal
Cognitive trust in his ability to get the job done

In December 1943, Eisenhower was chosen from over 400 other senior officers as the Supreme Allied Commander of Operation Overlord. He was knowledgeable about military strategy, proving his success in the operations in North Africa and Italy. He had a history of solving complex military problems and making good decisions under intense pressure. Even more so, he had an innate ability to bring people together. He became known for his way of coordinating officers, sailors, soldiers, and airmen from all different countries together, creating a sense of commonality in which everyone was working toward the same goal. It came down to cognitive trust: a confidence in his knowledge, experience, accomplishment, and abilities to get the job done.

Photo Source�https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/538462/facts-about-dwight-d-eisenhower

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Eisenhower’s Speech

Framing, Motivation, Emotion, Collectivism

Framed as uplifting, meant to instill confidence in their ability to win the war
Gave a sense of purpose and motivated troops to fight
Highlighted the collective goal of this battle: surrender of Nazi Germany and liberation of opressed people
Emotion tied to knowing that loss was inevitable, but it is this emotion that helps make good decisions

On June 5, 1944, the day before D-Day, Eisenhower gave a speech to the soldiers, sailors, and airmen faced with one of the greatest fights in history. His speech was aimed at motivating the troops, keeping them focused on the collective goal at hand: the defeat of the Axis forces, takedown of Nazi Germany, and freedom of oppressed people. Expected casualties were upwards of 75%. Fully aware that many of these men would not be returning home, Eisenhower sought to provide them with inspirational words that they could carry with them into battle. He framed the speech as uplifting, with utmost confidence. It was aimed at giving the troops the impression that he believed in them, their countries believed in them, and that they should believe in themselves. It was clear from his words and actions that Eisenhower cared about the men and the country, and such emotion combined with logic is what helped him as a leader make good decisions.

Photo Source�https://www.americanrhetoric.com/images/eisenhowerorderofthedayspeech.jpg

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Impending Bad Weather: When to Attack?

Probability, Expert Opinion, Uncertainty vs. Risk, Regret Avoidance, System 1 Thinking, Overconfidence Bias

Captain James Stagg and British meteorologists predicted impending bad weather and requested the invasion be halted immediately
American forecasters said weather would calm and D-Day could continue as planned
Eisenhower had to weigh the probabilities and risk associated with each scenario, ultimately choosing to trust the expert opinion of Captain Stagg
June 5 showed calm in the storm coming and the launch of D-Day was approved for June 6
German forces used older technology and, overconfident in poor weather conditions, did not expect the Allied attack

Just before D-Day was set to start, Captain James Stagg, who was the meteorological officer for Operation Overlord, called for a halt to the attack as he saw incoming bad weather that would make for poor launch conditions. However, the window to change the attack date was small because just the right tide and moon phase was needed to fulfill the plan, and this meant waiting until the next opportunity on June 17-20. This could risk exposing the operation to the German forces. As British forecasters used their familiarity with the English Channel weather to predict impending storms, the American forecasters contradicted and used historic weather maps to determine that a high pressure front would fend off the storm. Stagg sided with the British team.

Eisenhower was left with a difficult decision: take the risk and move forward as planned or delay D-Day and risk exposure. He had to weigh the probabilities: how likely was it that the weather would indeed settle down as the American meteorologists had predicted, how many troops would we risk losing if we trust this advice and move forward as planned and the weather turns poor, and how likely is it if we delay until late June that the German forces will predict our attack or even that the weather might turn bad then. Eisenhower had to balance uncertainty with risk. It was a decision in weighing likelihoods of the best and worst case scenarios, and lives were at stake. He did not want to make the wrong decision and regret it later.

Eisenhower chose to trust Stagg and his team, and he pushed the launch one day to June 6 in hopes that they would see a change. That good news came when weather stations found a break in the storm. Stagg believed this was the opportunity to invade and, trusting his expert opinion, Eisenhower approved the official launch of D-Day. In an interview, Eisenhower recalls spending just 30-45 seconds reviewing all the possibilities and their likelihood, the opportunities for success and the risk of failure, before saying, “Ok, we’ll go” and seeing the room empty. Now, processing such information in 30-45 seconds sounds difficult, so we imagine there was also some level of system 1 thinking involved here.

If they had gone on June 5 as the Americans recommended, the weather would have been terrible, and they later found out that if D-Day had been pushed until late June, they would have experienced the worst weather in the English Channel in two decades. This decision was a turning point in the war, as the Germans did not expect the attack.

On the other side, Germans were using older technologies to predict weather and believed that the poor conditions would mean no chance of Allied forces attacking during this period. The chief meteorologist predicted that the winds would last through mid-June. With an overconfidence in the forecast, commanders departed their coastal posts to play war games and visit family, so they were underprepared when the Allied forces struck.

Photo Source:

https://daily.jstor.org/the-weather-forecast-that-saved-d-day/

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Operation Bodyguard Disinformation Campaign

Bounded Awareness, Focalism, Escalation of Commitment

Allied forces created a disinformation campaign to keep Axis forces distracted
Used double agents to send false information that the Pas-de-Calais was the target
Broadcast over radio, positioned decoy machinery, and increased air raids in that region leading up to D-Day
Hitler refused to take reinforcements from Pas-de-Calais and send to Normandy for seven weeks after D-Day, still convinced of an impending attack
Bounded awareness prevented Hitler from seeing the information that was factual and critical, and focalism left the German forces under-resourced at Normandy – a benefit for the Allied forces

In an effort to hide the details of the true invasion and lead the Axis forces astray, the Allied forces created and carried out a disinformation campaign codenamed Operation Bodyguard. German spies were captured and turned by British intelligence. Allies gave false information that these spies and then turned around and shared with the Axis forces. In addition, the Allies created a fake force led by George Patton, who the Axis powers believed to be the man in charge for the big invasion. The Allies sent news over broadcast radio about movement of resources, like troops and supplies, created decoy landing and aircrafts, and even increased air attacks around the Pas-de-Calais (pronounced Pahd-Calee) region to throw the German forces off the real plan. Then, one of the top double agents so trusted by Hitler, Juan Garcia, revealed that the army was going to strike at Pas-de-Calais. Having already invested and established his resources in the Pas-de-Calais, Hitler refused to move them for seven weeks after D-Day started, assuming an attack was imminent when in fact, the biggest attack had already occurred at Normandy. At that point, the Allied forces had gained the leverage they needed. Bounded awareness prevented Hitler from seeing what was the more relevant issue at hand: the greatest attack happening at Normandy. His focalism on Pas-de-Calais left Normandy under-resourced and allowed the Allied powers to get the foothold in Europe that they needed to take down the Axis powers.

Photo Source:

https://historycollection.com/12-greatest-military-bluffs-history/11/

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Decision Assessment

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Assessment of the Decision Quality

Decision to Pursue Operation Overlord:

As described earlier, this decision was utilitarian and meant to secure the freedom of the people. The decision involved outweighing the good with the bad, and it was deemed necessary to win the war and see a surrender from Nazi Germany.

Planning for D-Day:

Planning for D-Day involved developing strategies for the plan of attack. The first decision was to choose Normandy as the landing site. The next decision was to determine the attack sectors and allocating troops to those sectors. Finally, with the help of the invasion planners, Eisenhower decided the ideal attacking conditions, mainly weather and timing. All this planning demonstrated a System 2 thinking and contributed to a success.

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Assessment of the Decision Quality

Selecting Eisenhower to Lead:

Eisenhower was a leader with the ability to bring people together. He was an expert in strategizing and had the ability to make tough decisions. The recognition of his efforts since 1941 towards strengthening the Allied forces and his successes in military operations in North Africa and Italy made the decision for him to lead an apt one. Moreover, he helped devise a calculated plan of attack that brought down Nazi forces.

Eisenhower’s Speech:

To send people off into an invasion required the forces to be motivated. Eisenhower’s speech was framed to instill confidence in the troop’s ability to win the war. In his speech, Eisenhower triggered an emotional response when he mentions the Nazi tyranny and the oppression of people. This made the troops fight with a common purpose, for freedom and for the world.

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Assessment of the Decision Quality

Impending Bad Weather: When to Attack?

Eisenhower made two critical decisions in the few days before the landings of the Allied forces on the coast of Normandy on June 6, 1944. He postponed the launching of the attack for 24 hours, and then seeing a break in the weather decided to order it forward.

There was a drawback to attacking on June 6 in those non-ideal weather conditions. The airborne assault that preceded the amphibious attack failed to deliver the blow they were expecting to the Omaha Beach sector, which was the most heavily defended beach, and that caused major casualties in that region.

Operation Bodyguard Disinformation Campaign:

The Allied forces created a disinformation campaign to keep Nazi forces distracted and the extent to which they planned this campaign made it look real and was successful to deceive Hitler.

He called the decision to postpone the most difficult decision he had to make during the war. The second decision to go has been called one of the truly great decisions in the military history. The reason for that is he knew that a delay would have meant they’d have to wait for at least 2 weeks, as the planners had requirements for the phase of the moon, tides, and time of day. And in retrospect, his system 1 thinking paid off because 2 weeks later there was a major storm at Normandy and thus a delay would have meant an even more desperate attempt to invade the beach of Normandy which would have ruined their entire plan and it wouldn’t have yielded results.

Having already invested and established his resources in the Pas-de-Calais(Pahd-Calee), Hitler refused to move them for seven weeks after D-Day, assuming an attack was imminent when in fact, the biggest attack had already occurred at Normandy. At that point, the Allied forces had gained the leverage they needed. Bounded awareness prevented Hitler from seeing what was the more relevant issue at hand: the greatest attack happening at Normandy. His focalism on Pas-de-Calais (Pahd-Calee) left Normandy under-resourced and allowed the Allied powers to get the foothold in Europe that they needed to take down the Axis powers.

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Conclusion

D-Day was the battle that led to the Allied powers gaining a foothold in Europe, which led to the takedown of Nazi Germany upon their surrender May 7, 1945. This was the end of WW2. They call it the “beginning to the end of the war.” Overall, it was a good decision and the only way it could have gone under the conditions.

The only way I can see it improving is by moving it up sooner to avoid the extended suffering of those in Western Europe, but at the time it would have meant not having enough troops for battle and the war could not have been won that way. So overall the decision was thought out and well prepared.

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Thank You

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Sources