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ULO, PV, EV, and�House Battery (HB)

Darryl McMahon

Author of

The Emperor’s New Hydrogen Economy

The opinions and conclusions provided here are those of the presenter and are not necessarily endorsed by other parties such as OREC or EVCO.

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Disclosures & Disclaimers

I don’t sell PV systems or EVs.�I live in Ontario and use the ULO pricing system.

This presentation and its conclusions are based on the electricity rates and ‘policy’ in Ontario as of mid-2024.

IMO, this Ontario government does not have a rational or coherent energy strategy, and favours dated and expensive energy technologies over those that address climate change, lower costs and democratize energy production.

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What is ULO?

ULO is the new Ultra-Low Overnight electricity rate plan now available (as of 2023 or 2024) to most Ontario residential customers of Hydro One or local distribution electric utility companies (LDCs), such as Hydro Ottawa.

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Why is ULO?

It’s not about promoting conservation.

It’s not about promoting renewables.

It’s not about promoting electric vehicles with low cost charging.

It’s not about promoting “choice” or saving money for ratepayers.

(for more detail, see the ‘after-party’ slides)

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Why is ULO?

It’s about Ontario having too big a nuclear fleet compared to provincial baseload demand when TOU / ULO were originally conceived; and,

it‘s hard and expensive to turn a nuclear reactor off and on again, particularly on a daily basis; and,

nuclear is really expensive power with huge fixed costs, so OPG wants it running full-out for every hour possible; and,

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Why is ULO?

renewables are less expensive to build and operate on a per kWh basis; and,

electric energy storage is getting cheaper (especially batteries which provide other value to the grid); and,

this government is too invested in keeping renewables out (and creating space for natural gas generation – the ‘Enbridge subsidy’) to admit any of this.

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Why is ULO?

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Ontario nuclear

generation capacity

is 13.144 GW.

Ontario curtails

generation from wind, biofuels, and hydro if nuclear capacity exceeds baseload.

But, in reality, this graphic understates the amount of nuclear generation, as it gets preference for production.

Source: https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation

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Aside: Grid watching

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Data for Wednesday 2024.09.18 3 PM 4 PM EDT

Source: https://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

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Actual Ontario generation by source

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Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1402504/sources-of-electricity-generation-ontario-canada/

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What is Base Load?

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Data for 2024.09.08

Source: https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation.

Ontario power demand – lowest value for Sunday 2024.09.08 is 11.502 GW

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Why is ULO?

If Ontario actually had all its supposed nuclear capacity running, as was the case a few years ago when the initial time-of-use pricing regime was introduced, we would still be seeing IESO / OPG / Enbridge (Bruce) keeping renewables off the grid at low demand times to reserve that revenue space for nuclear.

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But now they desperately need that electricity.

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Looking at the demand curve

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The green curve is Ontario demand, �dotted is forecast, solid is actual demand

Peak Demand: 21,547 MW

5:00-6:00 p.m. Monday

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Commercial Break 1

Darryl McMahon – who is this guy?
EV on-the-road in Ottawa in 1979
Solar electric boat 1999
Household solar thermal installed 2004
Started PV installer training (Seneca) 2006
Energy policy wonk
DIY tinkerer
Freelance project manager and energy consultant

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Funtime – Let’s do some math

Let’s start with a quick review of the IESO’s ‘simple’ rates plans including the ULO
Actually, I’m going to skip the Tiered rates (3 plans) in the following image for the sake of brevity
And, I built a new graphic of my own because the Ontario and OEB versions are a bit more cluttered and verbose

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Funtime – Let’s do some math

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New Rates as of Nov. 1, 2024

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Fun with ULO math

The previous graphic is based on a spreadsheet to make calculations simpler. The initial version assumes a constant 1 kW load (household). It reveals these cost figures.

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Rate Plan	Tiered W	Tiered S	Tiered B	TOU W	TOU S	ULO
Daily	N/A	N/A	N/A
Weekly	N/A	N/A	N/A	$18.52	$18.52	$18.16
Monthly	$74.16	$76.80	$74.16	$79.35	$79.35	$77.84

The catch is, most of us use more electricity

during high demand times and less at low

demand times.

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Fun with ULO math

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The price of electricity from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. weekdays is 28.6 cents per kWh, while the price from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. is 2.8 cents.

The latter is a 90% discount. Every night.

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Breaking News! Nov. 1 2024

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The price of electricity from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. weekdays is 28.6 cents per kWh, while the price from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. is 2.8 cents.

The latter is a 90% discount. Every night.

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Typical daily Ontario demand cycle

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Fun with ULO math

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If I could shift my 1 kW power consumption from the 5 most expensive hours each weekday to the least expensive, my cost would drop from $1.43 to $0.14. Over 5 days (a week), the savings would be $6.45. In a month (21 weekdays), the savings are $27.09. Shifting the same 5 hours on weekends brings the savings to $30.17 per month. Before taxes.

If you currently use more electricity during peak demand times than off-peak times – which, by definition, most of us do – your savings could be more from simple shifting of the usage times.

So, is $30.17 x 12 = $362.04 per constant kWh a year (before taxes) worth some effort or minor inconvenience?

Let’s assume yes.

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Commercial Break 2

Energy and environmental consulting
Soneil intelligent battery chargers
WaterSaver toilet fill diverters
Award-winning author:�The Emperor’s New Hydrogen Economy
Oil spill recovery and remediation technology
Microplastics removal (2 technologies)
Algal bloom removal (at proof of concept)
Climate change info (10n10.ca)

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Go ULO for the win

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What we’re after here is called ‘load shifting’.

What things in your household use electricity and overnight powering is acceptable?

In our household, we have several candidates.

Dishwasher, which has a built-in start delay feature
Electric clothes dryer (auto delay not available then)
Battery-powered tools, which can go on a power bar with a daily cycle timer
Indoor garden with artificial lighting (on timer)
Cell phones, tablets, laptops
Big items, 2 EVs and 2 electric tractors

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Go ULO for the win – early days

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We switched to ULO from TOU at the end of November 2023, the earliest possible date with Hydro Ottawa.

For the first month (December), we did minor load-shifting, just to have a baseline under ULO.

In the second month, we started a small battery-based in-house peak-shaving experiment.

#s from HOL bills (total bill/kWh used = avg kWh price)

November 2023 – TOU ($0.1612)

December 2023 – ULO baseline + loadshifts ($0.1397)

January 2024 – ULO + 2^nd EV + peak shaving ($0.1311)

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Go ULO for the win – early days

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Sample Hydro Ottawa usage chart January 30, 2024 (weekday)

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Go ULO for the win – early days

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Conclusions:

Shifting EV charging to 8 hrs/day ULO rate was the big win. Whatever loads can be moved to ULO is a win.

Shifting other appliances (e.g., dishwasher, clothes dryer) provided some gains, but small compared to the previous TOU rates on weekends and overnight.

The peak shaving experiment for the fridge and freezers using batteries, chargers and inverter would not have justified the investment if new equipment had to be purchased.

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Go ULO + PV for the win

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PhotoVoltaic generation

Assumptions: 10 kW residential array and net-metering

Average daily production over the yearly cycle is 30 kWh.

Significant production is typically from mid-morning (10 a.m.) to mid-afternoon (4 p.m.) (time-zones roughly reflect local sun times – noon (ST) is local sun zenith

Because net-metering only produces time-limited bill credits, household production over the year that exceeds household use is effectively not compensated.

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Go ULO + PV for the win

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PhotoVoltaic generation

Assumptions: 10 kW residential array and net-metering

If finances are your driver, assuming relatively linear cost per kWh capacity installed, you should only install sufficient capacity to net out your consumption over the year, measured in DOLLARS, NOT KWH.

That will require data and math.

If you are already installed and going to lapse credits, you may want to increase your electrical demand given you will have free electricity (excess credits) to power it.

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Go ULO + PV for the win

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PhotoVoltaic generation

Simple math version:

Provide 30 kWh/day to the grid between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. on ULO rate plan.

Weekdays: 30 kWh x 5 days x $0.122/kWh = $18.30�Weekends: 30 kWh x 2 days x $0.087/kWh = $5.22

$23.52/week gross revenue for electricity sold�= $1,223.04/year

Financial payback value will depend on cost of system, amortization period and financing rate.

Note: westward orientation can produce power during the peak price period (currently $0.286/kWh)

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Go ULO + PV + HB for the win

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House Battery

This Chart Shows How California Is Massively Extending Solar Use Into The Evening

Why does this slide matter?

Max solar production is typically from mid-morning (10 a.m.) until late afternoon (4:00 p.m.) – about 6 hours

Max electrical demand on the grid is typically 4:00 p.m. to 9 p.m., 5 hours commencing pretty much exactly as PV output declines for the day

The system win the battery (storage) provides is shifting the power availability from 10-4 (generation) to 4-9 (demand)

The financial win is that under ULO power is priced at $0.286 from 4-9 p.m. weekdays, while power from 10-4 is priced at only $0.122.

The 5-hour time shifts more than DOUBLES the price of the electricity – the price net metering owners get paid for their production supplied to the grid.

Poetic justice that this is the $green area in the graph.

N.B., this opportunity may not last. Ontario government energy policy could change to remove the financial reward without notice or grandfathering provisions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/24/this-chart-shows-how-california-is-massively-extending-solar-use-into-the-evening/

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Go ULO + PV + HB for the win

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House Battery

Assumptions:

You can’t sell power to the grid unless you have PV and a net metering agreement

The net metering agreement does not control when you can deliver energy to the grid

The production meter will record the amount of power you deliver, and when (hour by hour)

* Pricing calculations in following slides based on rates from Nov. 2023-Oct. 2024. ULO peak rates drop 0.7% for Nov. 2024-Oct. 2025.

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House Battery

Assuming 30 kWh average production in a day which mostly occurs between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.

You can sell that electricity to the grid for $23.52/week

Instead, suppose you can store that energy for 5-6 hours in a battery, and send it to the grid between 4 and 9 p.m.

Weekdays: 30 kWh x 5 days x $0.286/kWh = $42.90�Weekends: 30 kWh x 2 days x $0.087/kWh = $5.22

$48.12/week gross revenue for electricity sold�= $2,502.24/year�vs $1,223.04/year without battery

Why does this slide matter?

Max solar production is typically from mid-morning (10 a.m.) until late afternoon (4:00 p.m.) – about 6 hours

Max electrical demand on the grid is typically 4:00 p.m. to 9 p.m., 5 hours commencing pretty much exactly as PV output declines for the day

The system win the battery (storage) provides is shifting the power availability from 10-4 (generation) to 4-9 (demand)

The financial win is that under ULO power is priced at $0.286 from 4-9 p.m. weekdays, while power from 10-4 is priced at only $0.122.

The 5-hour time shifts more than DOUBLES the price of the electricity – the price net metering owners get paid for their production supplied to the grid.

Poetic justice that this is the $green area in the graph.

N.B., this opportunity may not last. Ontario government energy policy could change to remove the financial reward without notice or grandfathering provisions.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/24/this-chart-shows-how-california-is-massively-extending-solar-use-into-the-evening/

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Go ULO + PV + HB for the win

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Downside: the price of a 30+ kWh House Battery

The House Battery requires a charger and a battery management/monitoring system (BMS), plus the actual cells.

There are a number of battery technologies.

As this is a stationary battery with a relatively low charge and discharge rate (6 kW), you don’t need a state-of-the-art EV battery. (However, 6 kW isn’t nothing, it’s about 25% of the capacity of a 100-amp service house.)

Orienting your PV to catch more late day sun can reduce the amount of battery needed to get higher payment.

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Go ULO + PV + HB for the win

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Downside: the price of a 30+ kWh House Battery

However, prices per kWh and charge/discharge cycles are falling with time as battery technology improves.

With time, we will likely see EV batteries which are no longer up to full road-service performance being repackaged for this kind of use.

At current commercial storage battery pricing and life expectation, the financial payoff is likely at the tipping point now (mid 2024). Battery prices continue to fall.

If you have another reason to want reliable power (e.g., medical equipment, computers for earning income), that could tip the financial equation.

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Go ULO + EV for the win

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EV with ULO rate low rate charging

Assumptions: You have or will acquire an EV (or 2)

The EV(s) will each drive the typical (Canadian average in 2023) 15,000 km per year, operating 6 days a week (312 days) for average distance of 48 km per day.

EV can travel 6 km per kWh (we get 7-8), needing 8 kWh per day to replenish the charge used.

Charging equipment is required.

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Go ULO + EV for the win

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EV with ULO rate low rate charging

With Level 2 charging (40 amp 240 volt circuit – equivalent to an electric clothes dryer), you can deliver 57.6 kWh during the ULO lowest rate period (11 p.m. to 7 a.m. daily.�(30 amps continuous output x 240 volts x 8 hours)

57.6 kWh x 6 km/ kWh = 345.6 km range replenishment

Typical cost for a residential Level 2 charger is $400-$800. Professional installation typically $1,000 to $2,000 depending wire run length and assuming there is capacity on the household service panel.

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Go ULO + EV for the win

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EV with ULO rate low rate charging

However, if you typically travel 60 km per day average (about 19,000 km annually per vehicle) or less, there is a lower cost option: Level 1 charging

Level 1 is just a simple wall socket circuit rated for 15 or 20 amps at 120 volts. A 15-amp circuit can deliver 1.4 kW continuously. 8 hours at 1.4 kW and 6 km/kWh is over 65 km per night replenishment at the lowest ULO rate. The charge cable comes with the EV, or can be purchased for about $100.

The ULO rate of $0.028 per kWh is available 8 hours a day from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. daily, 7 days a week.

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Go ULO + EV for the win

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EV with ULO rate low rate charging

Cost to charge an EV in this scenario for average day:

$0.224 plus taxes, or about $0.005 per km (including taxes)

Compare to gasoline:

at 8.8 litres / 100 km Canadian fleet average �(IEA 2019 figures: �https://www.iea.org/articles/fuel-economy-in-canada) and $1.56/litre (local gas station regular gas Sep. 2024)

Fuel cost is $0.18 per km (more for higher grades).

36 times the price of ULO rate electricity for EV

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PV and EV are separate decisions

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Conclusions:

Under ULO, don’t charge your EV with your PV!

You can make $0.122 (7 a.m. to 4 p.m. weekdays) or $0.286 (4 p.m. to 9 p.m. weekdays) per kWh delivered to the grid under the ULO rates.

You can buy electricity to charge your EV(s) at $0.028 from 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays at the ULO rate.

Take the time-of-day arbitrage opportunity for the guaranteed win at 10:1 payoff.

One kWh sent to the grid at the peak rate gives you 10 kWh at night, enough to get 60-80 km in your EV.

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HB and EV possible overlap

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In one sense, they’re both just batteries.

There is a lot of talk about Vehicle to Grid (V2G). In reality it’s complicated and not a good idea. V2L and V2H can have merit in specific situations.

If you have a net metering agreement, and a fully charged EV at home at the peak price period, conceivably you could feed power from your EV to your house (V2H), and then into the grid.

However, so far V2H is rare, expensive and complicated.�(Possible game-changer: https://www.dcbel.energy/ )

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Go ULO for the win

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Conclusions:

Load shifting within the household offers wins on electricity bills, but most people can’t move enough of their typical usage out of peak-demand time (dinner time) to overnight.

Game changer for some: EV owners (especially multi-EV households), other loads that don’t need to happen at a specific time (battery tools like robot sweepers)

Buying a big household battery for peak-shaving (consumption side) financial win likely still not within reach, but watch for big drops in battery prices to possibly shift the balance

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Go ULO for the win

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Conclusions:

ULO is not for everyone – you need to have considerably more demand during ULO period (11 p.m. to 7 a.m. – 8 hours) than during the mid-peak and peak periods (7 a.m. to 11 p.m. – 16 hours) to beat the penalty rate of $0.286 / kWh from 4 to 9 p.m. weekdays, and the discipline within the entire household to win financially on the consumption side.

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Go ULO for the win

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Conclusions:

Before you commit to ULO in hopes of financial savings, review your usage data (available from local utility, at Hydro Ottawa in .csv files), and model your expectations based on recent usage

If you anticipate big changes in your consumption patterns, why not wait until you have a month of data to analyze, and model based on that?

The ULO rates and scheduling aren’t dramatic enough vs. other rate plans to make no-brainer decisions for most households

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Go ULO for the win

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CAVEATS:

All the above conclusions are based on the current Ontario government policies regarding:

Ultra Low Overnight (ULO) charging prices
Current electricity retail pricing – including current subsidies to reduce voter/ratepayer rebellion
Power provided to the grid earns credits against your electricity consumption bill, not cash, and the excess credits can lapse after a year

Household electricity use discipline can be a challenge

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Go ULO for the win

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QUESTIONS?

(possibly some answers)

Additional information available at:

https://www.econogics.com

and

https://www.10n10.ca

(bonus slides follow)

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The After Party – details, details

It’s not about promoting conservation.

ULO is an incentive to change when electricity is consumed during the 24-hour cycle, not about reducing the amount that will be used.

The Doug Ford government cancelled the province’s electricity conservation programs after coming into power (March 2019)

(https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ford-government-cancels-energy-electricity-efficient-programs-centralizing-1.5069318)

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Why is ULO?

It’s not about promoting renewables.

Renewables were generally curtailed during the off-peak demand times, which is why wind power installations are installing battery storage to make their energy dispatchable.

The Doug Ford government cancelled 758 renewable energy projects when it came into power �(https://www.oktlaw.com/cancellation-of-renewable-energy-contracts-disproportionately-hits-first-nations-and-local-communities/)

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Why is ULO?

It’s not about promoting electric vehicles with low cost charging.

The local distribution company (e.g. Hydro Ottawa) can’t distinguish EV charging from any other load on the customer’s side of the meter.

The current Ontario government is not a fan of EVs, having cancelled the electric vehicle purchase incentive as one of its first acts in 2018.

(https://www.auto123.com/en/news/Ontario-electric-car-program-cancelled/64897/)

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Why is ULO?

It’s not about “choice” or saving money for ratepayers.

Most residential electricity consumers won’t be able to take advantage of this rate plan, especially given the penurious ULO Peak rate.

The Ontario government and its agencies in the electricity space are terrible at coherent policy and math to reduce costs.

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PV Pricing Curve

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Source: IRENA (2023); Nemet (2009: Farmer and Lafond (2016) Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/solar-panel-prices-have-fallen-by-around-20-every-time-global-capacity-doubled

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Battery Pricing Curve

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Source: RMI - The Rise of Batteries in Six Charts and Not Too Many Numbers (Jan.2024)�https://rockymntstage.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/slide-2-battery-charts.png

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Nuclear Generation Pricing Curve

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Source: Lovering (2016) - Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516300106

U.S. data�France data

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What’s Next for Ontario Electricity?

Ontario aiming to become energy superpower, energy minister says

"Our priority is obviously first and foremost securing affordable energy for the people of Ontario“

“Ontario's grid is one of the cleanest in the world, and the province can use that to its advantage to become an energy superpower”

Zero for two

Both Manitoba and Quebec – Ontario’s bordering provinces – have cleaner grid generation

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What’s Next for Ontario Electricity?

Nuclear, fossil methane (‘natural gas’) are far more expensive than the renewables projects this government cancelled immediately on taking office.

‘You couldn’t make this up’: Expert pans Ontario nuclear option

… the provincial-owned utility building the generators “effectively bankrupted itself”. About $21 billion in debt had to be stranded to render the successor (OPG) economically viable.

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What’s Next for Ontario Electricity?

The new SMR tech OPG is betting on doesn’t exist yet.

And perhaps it never will

Nuclear developer tapped to build reactor at Chalk River site applies for court-supervised sale

Globe and Mail 2024.10.30

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-nuclear-developer-tapped-to-build-reactor-at-chalk-river-site-applies/

The small modular nuclear fission reactor (SMR) tech being touted is not small or modular, is expensive and doesn’t solve existing problems (TENHE Ch. 8)

Monark exists only on paper, is not SMR

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/candu-energy-begins-planning-for-monark-pre-licensing-design-review

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What’s Next for Ontario Electricity?

LNG is worse for the climate than coal – new study

Gas Outlook – 2024.10.30�https://gasoutlook.com/analysis/lng-is-worse-for-the-climate-than-coal-new-study/

Climate change – exacerbated by methane use and leakage – is a threat to Ontario’s legacy hydropower spinning reserve and main load-following supply.

Climate warning as world’s rivers dry up at fastest rate for 30 years

The Guardian – 2024.10.07

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/07/climate-warning-as-worlds-rivers-dry-up-at-fastest-rate-for-30-years

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What’s Next for Ontario Electricity?

If the province is determined not to embrace a realistic plan for electricity generation, who will?

Individual homeowners, businesses and groups installing their own renewable energy generation and storage

This 1,800-km transmission line brings clean, reliable power to 24 remote First Nations — who also own most of it

The Narwhal 2024.10.24

https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-indigenous-energy-watay-power/

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