1 of 271

Digital Evolution at Wafer Scale

June 11, 2026 @ ERA Town Hall

Matthew Andres Moreno

Complex Systems/Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

University of Michigan

these slides: hopth.ru/gq

Luis Zaman

Emily Dolson

Matthew Andres

Moreno

Joey Wagner

Connor Yang (UROP)

Vivaan Singhvi (UROP)

2 of 271

Evolution Models in vivo and in silico

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

E.

coli

experimental evolution:

n>1, experimental manipulations

3 of 271

Evolution Models in vivo and in silico

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

Avida

(Ofria and Wilke, 2009)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

E.

coli

experimental evolution:

n>1, experimental manipulations

simulation and modeling:

synthesize theory, test sufficiency

4 of 271

Evolution Models in vivo and in silico

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

Avida

(Ofria and Wilke, 2009)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

E.

coli

5 of 271

1

processor

~billion replications/day

6 of 271

1

processor

7 of 271

1

processor

e.g.,

digital

multicell

experiment

8 of 271

morph

phenotype

morph

phenotype

stint

0

1

2

14

15

39

45

stint

59

74

100

9 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA

stint 0

morph a

10 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA

stint 14

morph d

11 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA

stint 15

morph e

12 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA

stint 45

morph g

13 of 271

1

processor

14 of 271

Cgoodwin, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Nejones1987, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

a bigger ox

a team of oxen

Grace Hopper

15 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

16 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

Fugaku

17 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

The Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

“next-generation” high-performance computing (especially AI/ML)

18 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

The Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

NVIDIA A100 GPU

6,912 CUDA cores

19 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

The Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

Graphcore IPU

1,200 cores per chip

clustered up to 1,024

chips

NVIDIA A100 GPU

6,912 CUDA cores

SambaNova

RDU

20 of 271

KLAT2 (HANK DIETZ)

Cerebras

Wafer-Scale

Engine

The Library of Congress via Wikimedia Commons

850,000

cores

NVIDIA A100 GPU

6,912 CUDA cores

Graphcore IPU

1,200 cores per chip

clustered up to 1,024

chips

SambaNova

RDU

21 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

22 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

23 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

24 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

25 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

data

output

26 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

only ~48kb

mem per core

27 of 271

GraphCore IPU — another AI/ML accelerator

1,200 cores per chip

clustered up to 1,024 chips

28 of 271

Mapping Evolution Simulations onto WSE

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

29 of 271

Mapping Evolution Simulations onto WSE

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🐥🦜🦜🦜🦤🦤🐥

30 of 271

Mapping Evolution Simulations onto WSE

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🧬🧬🧬🧬

[u32, u32…]

🐥🦜🦜🦜🦤🦤🐥

31 of 271

Mapping Evolution Simulations onto WSE

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

✉️🧬

🧬🧬🧬🧬

[u32, u32…]

🐥🦜🦜🦜🦤🦤🐥

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

32 of 271

Performance

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

295× vs GPU

111,091× vs CPU

33 of 271

Goal: develop and apply methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

WSE

34 of 271

Goal: develop and apply methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

WSE

35 of 271

Goal: develop and apply methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

WSE

This Talk: methodology for collecting evolutionary history from wafer-scale evolution simulations

36 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

48kb mem

😶‍🌫️

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

37 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

48kb mem

😶‍🌫️

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

38 of 271

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

🍞🧈

39 of 271

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

Simulation Phylogeny Data:

  1. history of evolutionary events
  2. insight into evolutionary dynamics
  3. “ground truth” data to test/develop bioinformatics tools

40 of 271

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

Root

Leaves

(aka Tips)

41 of 271

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

closely related

42 of 271

Lineages diverged

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

closely related

43 of 271

“fossil tips”

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

🦕

44 of 271

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

=

=

45 of 271

Asexual Phylogeny

vertex:

“taxonomic unit”

🦠

46 of 271

Asexual Phylogeny

vertex:

“taxonomic unit”

🦠

🦠

47 of 271

Asexual Phylogeny

vertex:

“taxonomic unit”

🦠

🦠

🦠

🦠

48 of 271

Asexual Phylogeny

Organisms vs. Species

49 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

50 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

51 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

52 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

53 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

54 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

55 of 271

Sexual vs asexual phylogenies

Baum and Offner, 2008

56 of 271

Vs

long term coexistence

U.S. Navy, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

What is a phylogeny and what can it tell you?

Vs

Moreno et al., 2023

4 niche

ecology

recent selective sweep

57 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

58 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

(Nozoe et al, 2017)

🦠

🦠

🦠

🔬

🦠

59 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

(Nozoe et al, 2017)

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

🦠

60 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🦠

🦠

🦠

👍

(Nozoe et al, 2017)

🔬

🦠

61 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

👍

(Nozoe et al, 2017)

🔬

👎

🦠

🦠

🦠

🦠

62 of 271

Perfect Tracking:

Complete Observability

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

👍

👎

(Nozoe et al, 2017)

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

🦠

63 of 271

Costs of Perfect Tracking

👍

👎

🔬

  • Memory, Storage, & Bandwidth
    • e.g., 8PB vs 30GB
  • Runtime Extinction Tracking Costs
  • Hardware Crashout & Corruption
    • perfect tracking is sensitive to data loss
    • at exascale, >1 node fail/hour

64 of 271

WSE

Chip

host

PE row 410 between columns 0 and 248

~5% of 32-bit words from region corrupted

0.03% of overall extracted 5-word genomes

65 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🌻

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

66 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🌻

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

67 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🌻

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

68 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🪄🐇

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🌻

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

69 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

*inferred estimate

🧬

🌻

🔬

🦠

🦠

🦠

70 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

*inferred estimate

How to design

.🧬 to facilitate reconstruction?

71 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

*inferred estimate

Hwang et al., 2019

Crispr-cas9 Barcoding

72 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

= “hstrat” annotation

73 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🪷

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

= “hstrat” annotation

🧬

  • small (~96 bits)
  • fast (< 500ns)
  • tunably accurate

74 of 271

evolve

under-the-hood “hstrat” algorithm

75 of 271

evolve

under-the-hood “hstrat” algorithm

(✂️ for time)

76 of 271

evolve

77 of 271

evolve

78 of 271

evolve

79 of 271

.B.

.C.

.A.

evolve

80 of 271

.B.

.C.

.A.

evolve

81 of 271

.C.

.B.

.A.

.B.

.C.

.A.

evolve

end-state

82 of 271

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

.B.

.C.

.A.

evolve

end-state

reconstruct

83 of 271

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

.B.

.C.

.A.

evolve

end-state

reconstruct

✂️

(q&a welcome)

84 of 271

t=8

85 of 271

t=8

86 of 271

t=8

t=16

87 of 271

t=8

t=16

t=8

t=16

88 of 271

t=8

t=16

t=8

t=16

“steady”

“tilted”

89 of 271

t=8

t=16

t=8

t=16

“steady”

“tilted”

This is the hard/interesting part!!!

90 of 271

Ackley, David H. "A robust programmable replicator for an indefinitely scalable machine." In Artificial Life Conference Proceedings 35, vol. 2023, no. 1, p. 81

https://doi.org/10.1162/isal_a_00701

91 of 271

Ackley, David H. "A robust programmable replicator for an indefinitely scalable machine." In Artificial Life Conference Proceedings 35, vol. 2023, no. 1, p. 81

https://doi.org/10.1162/isal_a_00701

92 of 271

data stream

data storage

Generalized Ring Buffer (Gunther, 2014)

93 of 271

data stream

data storage

It is generation 72…

… put at position 4

94 of 271

temporal coverage

Simple Ring Buffer

95 of 271

temporal coverage

Steady Retention

96 of 271

temporal coverage

Tilted Retention

97 of 271

Generalized Ring Buffer (Gunther, 2014)

98 of 271

data storage

72 generations have elapsed…

gen 68

gen 54

gen 45

gen 23

gen 61

99 of 271

Time

WSE Chip

100 of 271

Time

sample 0

WSE Chip

🧬samples

101 of 271

Time

WSE Chip

🧬samples

sample 0

102 of 271

Time

WSE Chip

🧬samples

sample 0

103 of 271

Time

sample 0

WSE Chip

🧬samples

104 of 271

Time

sample 0

sample 1

WSE Chip

🧬samples

105 of 271

Time

sample 0

sample 1

sample 2

sample 3

sample 4

sample 5

WSE Chip

106 of 271

Time

sample 0

sample 1

sample 2

sample 3

sample 4

sample 5

sample 6

Reconstructed Phylogeny

WSE Chip

107 of 271

Time

sample 0

sample 1

sample 2

sample 3

sample 4

sample 5

sample 6

Reconstructed Phylogeny

WSE Chip

some

data

loss ok

108 of 271

Time

sample 0

sample 1

sample 2

sample 3

sample 4

sample 5

sample 6

Reconstructed Phylogeny

WSE Chip

some

data

loss ok

1.13 quadrillion evaluations, 226 million pop size, 500,000 generations,

10 minutes runtime, 9,000 snapshots (15/sec), 0.0001% sampled, 1 billion tip phylogeny

109 of 271

hstrat Pipeline

  1. raw sim “genome” strings

2. extract and decode

markers

3. build tree

4. phylogeny

courtesy meat-machinery.com

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

Connor

Yang

Vivaan Singhvi

Joey

Wagner

110 of 271

1170

1170

sample

genomes

WSE Chip

755×1170

PE array

755

sample

lineage

111 of 271

1170

sample

genomes

WSE Chip

755×1170

PE array

sample

lineage

112 of 271

1170

1170

sample

genomes

WSE Chip

755×1170

PE array

755

sample

lineage

directional

migration

bias

113 of 271

Neutral Conditions

Adaptive Conditions

114 of 271

Neutral Conditions

Adaptive Conditions

115 of 271

Conclusion

116 of 271

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🦠

🦠

🦠

117 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

118 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

in vivo

119 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

in silico

in vivo

120 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

🔬

… ← in vivo

in silico

121 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

🔬

in silico → …

… ← in vivo

122 of 271

“sampling-based” observability

“perfect” observability

(Nozoe et al,

2017)

🦠

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

🦠

🦠

🦠

🔬

in silico → …

… ← in vivo

123 of 271

(Dolson and Ofria, 2021)

124 of 271

Parallel/distributed Scale-up: Interesting Trade-offs

  • complete observability / sampling-based observability

(Dolson and Ofria, 2021)

125 of 271

Peter J. Park, CC BY 2.5 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5>, via Wikimedia Commons

kqedquest Via Flickr

Wafer-Scale Cluster

126 of 271

Peter J. Park, CC BY 2.5 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5>, via Wikimedia Commons

kqedquest Via Flickr

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

2,048

CS-3

Wafer-Scale Cluster

127 of 271

Peter J. Park, CC BY 2.5 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5>, via Wikimedia Commons

kqedquest Via Flickr

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

WSE Chip

1170

755

2,048

CS-3

1.74 B

processors

256

exaFLOPs

🧬

🧬

🧬

🧬

Wafer-Scale Cluster

128 of 271

Dr. Luis Zaman

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

Dr. Emily Dolson

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

Joey Wagner

Connor Yang (UROP)

Vivaan Singhvi (UROP)

Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR)

Award Number DE-SC0025634

129 of 271

ByteBoost Workshop ‘24

130 of 271

ByteBoost

Workshop ‘24

131 of 271

@MorenoMatthewA 🐘@mas.to

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

(Mei Yu, Julian, & Riaz)

(Extensive)

Technical Assistance

“Re: Re: Fwd: Troubleshooting…”

132 of 271

Questions?

We have a very bad tendency to base our plans for computers on the equipment we have in house and the things we’re doing now. And totally fail to review them in the light of the equipment that will be available and the things that we will be doing — I think the saddest phrase I ever hear in a computer installation is that horrible one "but we’ve always done it that way." That’s a forbidden phrase in my office.

Capt. Grace Hopper

Future Possibilities: Data, Hardware, Software, and People — August 26, 1982

these slides: hopth.ru/gq

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

133 of 271

References

  • Ackley, David H. "A Robust Programmable Replicator for an Indefinitely Scalable Machine." ALIFE 2023: Ghost in the Machine: Proceedings of the 2023 Artificial Life Conference. MIT Press, 2023.
  • Liquidware. Introducing the Illuminato X Machina. http://antipastohw.blogspot.com/2009/08/introducing-illuminato-x-machina.html
  • ALIEN Artificial Life Environment. https://www.alien-project.org/index.html
  • Dolson, Emily, and Charles Ofria. "Digital evolution for ecology research: a review." Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9 (2021): 750779.
  • Good, Benjamin H., et al. "The dynamics of molecular evolution over 60,000 generations." Nature 551.7678 (2017): 45-50.
  • Ofria, Charles, and Claus O. Wilke. "Avida: A software platform for research in computational evolutionary biology." Artificial life 10.2 (2004): 191-229.
  • Buitrago P.A., Nystrom N.A. (2021) Neocortex and Bridges-2: A High Performance AI+HPC Ecosystem for Science, Discovery, and Societal Good. In: Nesmachnow S., Castro H., Tchernykh A. (eds) High Performance Computing. CARLA 2020. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1327. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68035-0_15

134 of 271

Problem Setup — [props?]

135 of 271

Problem Setup — [props?]

136 of 271

Proof-of-concept Experiment

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

137 of 271

Proof-of-concept Experiment

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

a) purifying regime

b) adaptive regime

👾 =mutate

👾 or 👾

👾 =mutate

👾 or 👾 or 👾+

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

simple agent model, explicit fitness

138 of 271

Proof-of-concept Experiment

🧬

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

a) purifying regime

b) adaptive regime

👾 =mutate

👾 or 👾

👾 =mutate

👾 or 👾 or 👾+

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

simple agent model, explicit fitness

🧬

🧬

🧬

139 of 271

Example Phylogenies

a) purifying

regime

b) adaptive

regime

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

~ 8 million agents

~ 10k tip phylogenies

a) purifying regime

b) adaptive regime

140 of 271

Phylogeny Structure Metrics

141 of 271

Phylogeny Structure Metrics

📚 [slides, paper, code] https://hopth.ru/de

142 of 271

Phylogeny Structure Metrics

📚 [slides, paper, code] https://hopth.ru/de

143 of 271

Goal: end-to-end encapsulated workflow

raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

One Terminal

Command

144 of 271

Goal: end-to-end encapsulated workflow

  • raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

2. extract and decode

markers

3. build tree

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

4. phylogeny

courtesy meat-machinery.com

145 of 271

Goal: high-performance, easy workflow

raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

1 Terminal

Command

✅ prototype → 🔜 open-source package

146 of 271

Goal: high-performance, easy workflow

  • today: 2.5 million tips per minute
  • goal: >5 million tips per minute

raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

1 Terminal

Command

✅ prototype → 🔜 open-source package

147 of 271

Goal: high-performance, easy workflow

  • today: 2.5 million tips per minute
  • goal: >5 million tips per minute

raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

1 Terminal

Command

✅ prototype → 🔜 open-source package

148 of 271

Goal: high-performance, easy workflow

  • today: 2.5 million tips per minute
  • goal: >5 million tips per minute
  • prototype —> python package

Joey

Wagner

Connor

Yang

Vivaan Singhvi

raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

phylogeny

1 Terminal

Command

✅ prototype → 🔜 open-source package

149 of 271

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

150 of 271

contemporary analyses

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

Liu et al., 2024: 235 million seqs

39k jobs, 30.5 hrs

151 of 271

Future Work

152 of 271

Results

153 of 271

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

poisson distribution

154 of 271

agent-based model

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

155 of 271

156 of 271

1 billion agents

157 of 271

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

158 of 271

vs

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

poisson distribution

159 of 271

vs

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

poisson distribution

max n

160 of 271

161 of 271

162 of 271

163 of 271

164 of 271

165 of 271

166 of 271

1 billion agents

167 of 271

1 billion agents

168 of 271

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

poisson distribution

169 of 271

agent-based model

beneficial

p=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

n loci available

170 of 271

n loci

171 of 271

n loci

172 of 271

n loci

100 million agents

173 of 271

Generations

50/50

174 of 271

Generations

50/50

Generations

1 in 100k

denovo

175 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

176 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

177 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

178 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

179 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

180 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

n loci

181 of 271

1 in 100k

denovo

182 of 271

183 of 271

Next Steps

184 of 271

Next Steps

VS

osmotic pressure

antibiotics

Callens et al., 2023

185 of 271

Next Steps

VS

osmotic pressure

more adaptive loci

more hypermutators

antibiotics

fewer adaptive loci

fewer hypermutators

Callens et al., 2023

Q: how many beneficial muts per strain?

186 of 271

Next Steps

VS

osmotic pressure

more adaptive loci

more hypermutators

antibiotics

fewer adaptive loci

fewer hypermutators

Callens et al., 2023

Q: how many beneficial muts per strain?

  • more sophisticated fitness landscape models
  • well-mixed ABM on GPU
  • analyze time to fixation in model vs. theory expectation
  • create mathematical model for de novo selection curves
  • connect to data from Callens et al or LTEE?

187 of 271

Tagged, Event-driven Programming Model

N

E

S

W

“Ramp”

188 of 271

Tagged, Event-driven Programming Model

“Ramp”

N

E

S

W

“Wavelet”

“Wavelet”

189 of 271

Tagged, Event-driven Programming Model

“Ramp”

N

E

S

W

“Wavelet”

“Wavelet”

Queue

fn doTask(wav) {

int c = 10;

}

Task

190 of 271

[more about WSE programming model in pocket slides]

191 of 271

GraphCore IPU — another AI/ML accelerator

  • 1,200 cores per chip
  • clustered up to 1,024 chips

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

192 of 271

Part 1: On-hardware Experiment

193 of 271

Scale and Digital Evolution

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

E.

coli

194 of 271

Scale and Digital Evolution

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

Avida

(Ofria and Wilke, 2009)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

Image credit: Credit: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health

E.

coli

195 of 271

Scale and Digital Evolution

  • both ~billion replications/day

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

Avida

(Ofria and Wilke, 2009)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

Image credit: Credit: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health

E.

coli

196 of 271

Scale and Digital Evolution

  • both ~billion replications/day

Cross-scale Phenomena:

  • ecological communities
  • multicellularity/major transitions

LTEE

(Good et al., 2017)

Avida

(Ofria and Wilke, 2009)

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

E.

coli

197 of 271

GPU

ALIEN Project (Heinemann, 2024)

MFM/ULAM/T2 Tiles (Ackley, 2023)

Illuninato x Machina

(Ackley, 2010)

📚 [slides, paper, code] https://hopth.ru/de

198 of 271

Objective: Develop Methods to Harness Next Generation AI/ML Hardware for Agent-based Evolution Experiments

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

199 of 271

Goal: develop methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

200 of 271

Develop Algorithms and Software for Wafer-Scale Evolution Simulations

Technical Proof-of-Concept Runs

Proof-of

-Concept

Hypothesis-driven Experiments

Goal: develop methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

we are here

201 of 271

Develop Algorithms and Software for Wafer-Scale Evolution Simulations

Technical Proof-of-Concept Runs

Proof-of

-Concept

Hypothesis-driven Experiments

we are here

Goal: develop methods to harness next-generation high-performance computing hardware to enable larger agent-based evolution simulations

  1. hypermutator dynamics experiments

II. phylogeny

tracking

202 of 271

Part 1:

Hypermutator Dynamics Experiments

on the Wafer-scale Engine

203 of 271

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

204 of 271

“normomutator”

“hypermutator”

205 of 271

hypermutator trait

👿

higher

deleterious

mutation

load

😇 +

faster

discovery

beneficial

mutations

206 of 271

“hypermutator”

https://mathematical-oncology.org/blog/evofreq-and-hal.html

207 of 271

“hypermutator”

https://mathematical-oncology.org/blog/evofreq-and-hal.html

https://mathematical-oncology.org/blog/evofreq-and-hal.html

208 of 271

“hypermutator”

https://mathematical-oncology.org/blog/evofreq-and-hal.html

https://mathematical-oncology.org/blog/evofreq-and-hal.html

209 of 271

Hypermutator dynamics pertain to

  • pathogen evolution
  • antibiotic resistance
  • tumor cell evolution
  • etc.

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

210 of 271

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

211 of 271

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

hypermutators favored

normomutators favored

212 of 271

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

hyper

mutator

213 of 271

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

hypermutators win

<— pop size 10k

214 of 271

?????????

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

very large

population sizes??

215 of 271

Cerebras Wafer-Scale Engine

850,000

cores

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

216 of 271

“normomutator”

“hypermutator”

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

📚 [these slides] https://hopth.ru/ea

hypermutators favored

🔎

Cerebras

Wafer-Scale

Engine

normomutators favored

217 of 271

agent-based model

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

218 of 271

agent-based model

beneficial

λ=1 in 100k

deleterious

λ=1 in 1k

poisson distribution

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

219 of 271

beneficial

λ=1 in 1k

deleterious

λ=1 in 10

hypermutator

100x mutation rate

poisson distribution

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

agent-based model

220 of 271

←hypermutator

←normomutator

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

50/50

221 of 271

←hypermutator

Generations

←normomutator

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

50/50

222 of 271

←hypermutator

Generations

←normomutator

hypermutator selection — Raynes et al., 2018

50/50

— versus —

hypermuts win

normomuts win

223 of 271

Island Model GA

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

On-device Performance

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

224 of 271

Island Model GA

Treatment Conditions. Allowed mutational outcomes under compared outcomes. Note that adaptive regime introduces the possibility for selective sweeps.

a) purifying

regime

On-device Performance

b) adaptive

regime

Example reconstructions. Phylogenetic reconstructions of 1 million generation on-hardware simulations. For legibility, phylogeny visualizations were further subsampled to 1k end-state agents. Left phylogenies are log-scaled with ultrametric correction to better show topology and right phylogenies are linear-scaled.

On-device Evolution Trial

Phylometric outcomes. Statistics calculated from reconstruction of 18 million population size/1 million generation on-hardware simulations. Phylometrics were calculated from reconstructions with 10k sampled end-state agents.

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️ 🏝️

📧 morenoma@umich.edu

225 of 271

Simulation Results

226 of 271

Preliminary Results

227 of 271

Preliminary Results

normo

lose

228 of 271

Preliminary Results

229 of 271

Preliminary Results

230 of 271

Preliminary Results

normo win in big pops when few beneficial mutations are available

231 of 271

Preliminary Results

normo win in big pops when few beneficial mutations are available

232 of 271

Preliminary Results

233 of 271

Preliminary Results

3 beneficial

available

normo

lose in large pops

pop size up to ~10 million

234 of 271

Preliminary Results

normo

win in large pops

5 beneficial

available

+very large pop size

pop size up to ~1.5 billion

235 of 271

Generations

50/50

236 of 271

Generations

50/50

Generations

1 in 100k

denovo

237 of 271

Preliminary Results

+denovo hypermutator origination

238 of 271

+denovo hypermutator origination

514 beneficial muts available

normo

win

in large pops

239 of 271

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

on GPU

(stronger) spatial structure (weaker)

240 of 271

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

on GPU

(stronger) spatial structure (weaker)

241 of 271

on GPU

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

normomutators more resilient

242 of 271

on GPU

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

normomutators

more resilient

(>20 ben muts avail)

(stronger) spatial structure (weaker)

243 of 271

on GPU

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

normomutators

more resilient

(>20 ben muts avail)

normomutators

less resilient

(<8 ben muts avail)

(stronger) spatial structure (weaker)

244 of 271

on GPU

well-mixed

1D ring

2D grid

normomutators more resilient

normomutators less resilient

245 of 271

Performance 🏎️

246 of 271

Performance

vs. A100 GPU (CuPy)

Speedup

~ 294x faster

WSE vs GPU

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

247 of 271

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

248 of 271

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

295× vs GPU

249 of 271

Performance

Agents per PE

Net Population Size

Simulation Speed

(Generations per Second)

250 of 271

Performance

Agents per PE

Net Population Size

Simulation Speed

(Generations per Second)

256

190.8 million

4,306 (std 156)

251 of 271

Performance

Agents per PE

Net Population Size

Simulation Speed

(Generations per Second)

256

190.8 million

4,306 (std 156)

2048

1.5 billion

549 (std 1)

252 of 271

Performance

all ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

Agents per PE

Net Population Size

Simulation Speed

(Generations per Second)

256

190.8 million

4,306 (std 156)

2048

1.5 billion

549 (std 1)

253 of 271

Performance

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

254 of 271

Performance

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

295× vs GPU

255 of 271

Performance

WSE ~8x1011 (800 billion) agent-generations per second

295× vs GPU

111,091× vs CPU

256 of 271

Conclusion

257 of 271

Summary

  • Under unlimited adaptive potential, large asexual populations favor hypermutators (Raynes et al., 2018)

258 of 271

Summary

  • Under unlimited adaptive potential, large asexual populations favor hypermutators (Raynes et al., 2018)
  • Under restricted adaptive potential, normomutators regain favor in very large populations

259 of 271

Summary

  • Under unlimited adaptive potential, large asexual populations favor hypermutators (Raynes et al., 2018)
  • Under restricted adaptive potential, normomutators regain favor in very large populations
    • This effect is amplified when hypermutators are initially rare, with strong spatial structure

260 of 271

Next Steps

  • more sophisticated fitness landscape models
  • hypermutator reversion
  • connect to in vivo data?

261 of 271

Next Steps

VS

osmotic pressure

more adaptive loci

more hypermutators

antibiotics

fewer adaptive loci

fewer hypermutators

Martjin Callens et al., 2023

  • more sophisticated fitness landscape models
  • hypermutator reversion
  • connect to in vivo data?

E. Coli

E. Coli

262 of 271

  • raw sim “genome” strings

2. extract and decode

markers

3. build tree

4. phylogeny

courtesy meat-machinery.com

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

263 of 271

hstrat Pipeline

  • raw sim “genome” strings

2. extract and decode

markers

3. build tree

4. phylogeny

courtesy meat-machinery.com

.C.

.B.

.A.

.C.

.B.

.A.

Connor Yang

Vivaan Singhvi

Joey

Wagner

⏱️

264 of 271

hstrat Pipeline

courtesy meat-machinery.com

Joey

Wagner

⏱️

1 billion tip

phylogeny

265 of 271

hstrat Pipeline

courtesy meat-machinery.com

  • raw sim “genome” strings

🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬🧬

2. extract and decode

markers

3. build tree

🌻

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

4. phylogeny

Joey

Wagner

⏱️

Connor Yang

Vivaan Singhvi

266 of 271

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

267 of 271

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

Liu et al., 2024:

235 million seqs

39k jobs, 30.5 hrs

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

268 of 271

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

Liu et al., 2024:

235 million seqs

39k jobs, 30.5 hrs

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

existing phylogeny analyses and tools

269 of 271

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

Liu et al., 2024:

235 million seqs

39k jobs, 30.5 hrs

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

270 of 271

use more

phylogenies

use larger

phylogenies

contemporary analyses

need:

  • new stats/analyses
  • high-perf analysis code (TreeSwift, CompactTree, phyloframe, etc)

high-throughput phylogeny generation (in vivo & in silico)

🌸

🌺

🌼

🌻

271 of 271

Python interpreter

numba

newick

parquet

Alife

data

standard*

OOM

Killed

LazyFrame

DataFrame tools for big phylogeny data

https://github.com/mmore500/phyloframe