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Navigating Layoffs & the Fiscal Cliff: �How Can Districts Minimize Harm to Teachers & Students?

FEATURED SPEAKERS

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  • Dr. Dan Goldhaber, Director, CALDER
  • Dr. Katharine Strunk, Dean, University of Pennsylvania Graduate School of Education
  • Dr. Nikolai Vitti, Superintendent, Detroit Public Schools Community School District (DPSCD)
  • Facilitated by Matt Barnum, National Education Editor and Reporter, Chalkbeat

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CALDER WEBINAR

September 20, 2023

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Teacher Layoffs: What Districts Do Matters

Dan Goldhaber

Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research (CALDER), American Institutes for Research

Center for Education Data and Research (CEDR), University of Washington

dgoldhab@air.org | @cedr_us

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Teacher Shortages Have Dominated the News During the Pandemic

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Layoffs Seem Unthinkable. But They Aren’t.

  • With declining enrollment and federal COVID relief funds running out, some districts could soon have more employees than their budgets can support.

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How Districts Deal With Layoffs Has Big Implications

  • Typical approaches—e.g., laying off the least experienced teachers first (“LIFO”)—have unintended consequences for:
  • Teacher Quality
  • Teacher Mobility
  • Teacher Diversity

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Source: So all students thrive: Rethinking layoff policy to protect teacher diversity (2023). TNTP | Educators for Excellence

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How Districts Deal With Layoffs Has Big Implications

  • Typical approaches—e.g., laying off the least experienced teachers first (“LIFO”)—have unintended consequences for:
  • Teacher Quality
  • Teacher Mobility
  • Teacher Diversity

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Source: So all students thrive: Rethinking layoff policy to protect teacher diversity (2023). TNTP | Educators for Excellence

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Layoff Decision-Rules Have Implications for Quality

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Goldhaber, D., & Theobald, R. (2013). Managing the Teacher Workforce in Austere Times: The Determinants and Implications of Teacher Layoffs. Education Finance and Policy, 8(4), 494–527.

LIFO RIFs vs Simulated Effectiveness-based RIFs in Washington state.

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Layoff Decision-Rules Have Implications for Quality

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Goldhaber, D., & Theobald, R. (2013). Managing the Teacher Workforce in Austere Times: The Determinants and Implications of Teacher Layoffs. Education Finance and Policy, 8(4), 494–527.

LIFO RIFs vs Simulated Effectiveness-based RIFs in Washington state.

Difference of 5.6% of a standard deviation of student performance

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Layoff Decision-Rules Have Implications for Quality

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Goldhaber, D., & Theobald, R. (2013). Managing the Teacher Workforce in Austere Times: The Determinants and Implications of Teacher Layoffs. Education Finance and Policy, 8(4), 494–527.

LIFO RIFs vs Simulated Effectiveness-based RIFs in Washington state.

Difference of 5.6% of a standard deviation of student performance

Difference of 20% of a standard deviation of student performance

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Even the Threat of Layoffs Can Be Problematic

  • Threats of layoffs can negatively affect teacher mobility
    • Typical layoff processes induces teacher churn, even impacting teachers who are not actually laid off.
  • Threats of layoffs can negatively affect teacher performance
    • Teachers impacted by the layoff process are less productive than those who do not face layoff-induced job threat

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Goldhaber, D., Strunk, K. O., Brown, N., & Knight, D. S. (2016). Lessons learned from the great recession: Layoffs and the RIF-induced teacher shuffle. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 38(3), 517–548.

Strunk, K. O., Goldhaber, D., Knight, D. S., & Brown, N. (2018). Are there hidden costs associated with conducting layoffs? The impact of reduction-in-force and layoff notices on teacher effectiveness. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 37(4), 755–782.

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Even the Threat of Layoffs Can Be Problematic

  • Threats of layoffs can negatively affect teacher mobility
    • Typical layoff processes induces teacher churn, even impacting teachers who are not actually laid off.

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  • Threats of layoffs can negatively affect teacher performance
    • Teachers impacted by the layoff process are less productive than those who don’t face the threat of being let go.

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Goldhaber, D., Strunk, K. O., Brown, N., & Knight, D. S. (2016). Lessons learned from the great recession: Layoffs and the RIF-induced teacher shuffle. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 38(3), 517–548.

Strunk, K. O., Goldhaber, D., Knight, D. S., & Brown, N. (2018). Are there hidden costs associated with conducting layoffs? The impact of reduction-in-force and layoff notices on teacher effectiveness. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 37(4), 755–782.

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Seniority-based Layoffs Can Also Threaten Teacher Diversity

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Seniority-based Layoffs Can Also Threaten Teacher Diversity

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Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Teacher and Principal Survey, 2020-21 Public School Teachers (NTPS).

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Seniority-based Layoffs Can Also Threaten Teacher Diversity

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Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Teacher and Principal Survey, 2020-21 Public School Teachers (NTPS).

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Seniority-based Layoffs Can Also Threaten Teacher Diversity

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Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Teacher and Principal Survey, 2020-21 Public School Teachers (NTPS).

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Seniority-based Layoffs Can Also Threaten Teacher Diversity

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Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Teacher and Principal Survey, 2020-21 Public School Teachers (NTPS).

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What Can Districts Do?

  • Carve out layoff protections for school that need them (Knight and Strunk, 2016).
    • Schools with large portions of students from low-income households, schools with high teacher turnover rates, new schools working to build a coherent culture or program.
  • Don’t rely on seniority alone.
    • Other options include enrollment trends, subject-area shortages, demand for programs, evaluation ratings.
  • Align RIF notifications with budget timelines.
    • States and districts could improve the timing and accuracy of budget forecasts and link RIF notifications to budgets to avoid over-issuing “pink slips” months in advance.

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The Bottom Line

  • Layoffs might seem unthinkable, but enrollment declines and budget constraints could force districts to reduce staffing.
    • Districts used ESSER funds to hire and retain staff/teachers even with enrollment declines; as those funds dry up, those positions are at risk.
  • If districts face the need for layoffs, leaders need to look for different, more equitable ways to deal with them if they want to avoid unintentionally harming teachers and students.
  • No matter how leaders go about dealing with possible layoffs, this will have important implications for staffing and budgeting, and for student success and equity.

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Go Deeper at www.caldercenter.org

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Technical Working Papers

One-Pagers

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References

  • Goldhaber, D., Strunk, K. O., Brown, N., & Knight, D. S. (2016). Lessons learned from the great recession: Layoffs and the RIF-induced teacher shuffle. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 38(3), 517–548.
  • Goldhaber, D., & Theobald, R. (2013). Managing the Teacher Workforce in Austere Times: The Determinants and Implications of Teacher Layoffs. Education Finance and Policy, 8(4), 494–527.
  • Knight, D. S., & Strunk, K. O. (2016). Who Bears the Costs of District Funding Cuts? Reducing Inequality in the Distribution of Teacher Layoffs. Educational Researcher, 45(7), 395–406. 
  • Strunk, K. O., Goldhaber, D., Knight, D. S., & Brown, N. (2018). Are there hidden costs associated with conducting layoffs? The impact of reduction-in-force and layoff notices on teacher effectiveness. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 37(4), 755–782.

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