Climate change, opportunities and risks for tropical fruit production in Florida

Jonathan H. Crane, Tropical Fruit Crop Specialist

UF/IFAS Tropical Research and Education Center

Homestead, FL

Tampa Bay Chpt Rare Fruit Council, April 13, 2025, and Manatee Rare Fruit Council, April 14, 2025

General climatic perspectives - temperatures

Historically

• Tropical and subtropical fruit crops have been tested throughout Florida since the late 1800s
• Most survived in Miami-Dade County, some coastal areas and some micro-climates in Central Florida
• But in Central Florida the majority died from freezing events

Potential for expansion of tropical fruit crops

Past

Present/

Future?

Natural disasters on Florida’s estimated total tropical fruit acreage

H=hurricane; T=tropical storm; C=freeze and F=flood

F

H

H

H

F

F

F

C

T

H

H

H

C

C

F

C

C

C

F

F

F

C

The climate has changed, and it’s not done

Daily global sea surface temperatures

Seasonal cycle of temperature variation on the earth’s surface

Climate Reanalyzer/NYTimes https://climatereanalyzer.org/; NASA Scientific Visualization Studio https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/;

Earth Information Center, https://earth.gov/

Trend in Florida hot daytime temperatures (≥90°F)

Source: https://statesummaries.ncics.org

More recently the number and magnitude of hot days appears to have increased

2020

Trend in Florida hot night temperatures (≥75°F)

Source: https://statesummaries.ncics.org

There has been a trend for warmer night temperatures

2020

Florida observed historical weather patterns

Number of freeze events (Tmin ≤32°F)

Recent 5 and 30 years: the number of freeze events has decreased by 40%

ACKNOWLEDGMENT – data and graphic, Dr. Young Gu Her, Agric. Engineer – Climate Change

Potential for expansion of tropical fruit crops

Past

Present/

Future?

Climate data

• DeSoto Co., Arcadia
• Hillsborough Co., Balm
• Hillsborough Co., Dover
• Pasco Co., Dade City
• Polk Co., Lake Alfred
• Sarasota Co., North Port
• Hardee Co., Ona
• Highlands Co., Sebring

Sebring

Number of freeze events during Nov-Jan by location

• Number/year - less
• Frequency - less
• Periodicity – TBD
• Only takes one to damage or kill trees
• Especially young trees
• Flowers and fruit
• Timing of freeze events and tree growth stage important

Number of freeze events by Nov-Jan time-period

Lowest temperature during each Nov-Jan time by location

• Lethal temperatures reached in all locations during some Nov-Jan period
• Duration of those temperatures is important
• Preparations for cold/freeze protection is important
• Site selection is a key component to success/survival

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Number of hours at or below 32°F, Nov.-Jan by location

• Freeze hours/freeze - less
• Only takes one to damage or kill trees
• Especially young trees
• Flowers and fruit
• Timing of freeze events and tree growth stage important

​

Cold temperature tolerance – the temperature at which damage or death may occur

• Genetics
• Site selection
• Preparation
• Phenology

Effect of fruit species – freezing temperatures

Avocado

Mango

Effect of fruit species – freezing temperatures

Banana

Carambola

Cold tolerance and chilling

Freezing temperatures (≤32°F)

• Tolerance to freezing temperatures varies by fruit species and sometimes cultivar
• Subtropical fruit crops
• Tropical fruit crops
• Considerations
• Temperature
• Frequency of freeze events
• Duration of freezing events
• Timing of the freeze/frost events

Chilling temperatures

• Temperatures above freezing but below ~55°F
• Same considerations as freezing temperature
• Causes physiological problems
• Reduced or eliminate fruit set
• Negatively affects pollinators
• Fruit unable to ripen properly
• Prolong fruit development time

Temperatures for flowering

Requires or greatly benefits from cool temperatures – leads to flower induction

• Annona – and/or drought
• Avocado - beneficial
• Longan – required
• Lychee - required
• Mango - beneficial
• Pineapple (when fully grown plant)

​

Does not benefit from cool temperature exposure

• Banana
• Canistel
• Carambola
• Guava
• Jackfruit
• Mamey sapote
• Papaya
• Passionfruit
• Sapodilla

​

​

Flooding tolerance, waterlogged soils

Tolerant*, moderately tolerant

• Achachairu
• Annona – rootstock dependent
• Banana – some cultivars
• Carambola
• Dragonfruit
• Guava
• Lychee
• Longan
• Mamey sapote
• Mango
• Wax jambu

​

Sensitive to intolerant

• All avocados
• Mostly intolerant
• Some rootstock influence
• Papaya – mostly intolerant
• Passionfruit – mostly intolerant

*NOTE – low oxygen conditions increases root disease issues even in tolerant plants

Effects of low soil oxygen conditions

Consequences

• Root oxygen starvation
• Reduced water uptake
• Reduced nutrient uptake
• Negative metabolic changes
• Aerobic to anaerobic respiration
• Production of toxic substances in plant cells

​

Symptoms

• Wilting
• Leaf abscission (drop)
• Fruit shriveling or drop
• Stem dieback
• Limb dieback
• Root death
• Tree decline
• Tree death

​

Mamey sapote

Avocado

Effects of drought stress

Consequences

• Reduced and/or prolonged plant establishment or failure
• Reduce plant growth
• Increased time to flowering and fruit production
• Reduced fruit set and yields
• Poor fruit quality - size

Symptoms

• Leaf wilting
• Leaf abscission (drop)
• Flower abscission/no flowers
• Fruit shriveling
• Stem dieback
• Limb dieback
• Root death
• Tree decline
• Tree death

​

​

Drought stress carambola

Passionfruit

‘Pascual’ mango

Banana

Papaya

Effects of high temperature (heat stress)

Consequences and symptoms

Consequences

• Stunted plant growth
• Reduced/eliminated flowering and/or fruit set
• Increase sun scald of fruit

Symptoms

• Wilting
• Lack of flower bud development

Passionfruit

Mango

Papaya, high light,

cold temperatures

Banana

Papaya

sunburn

Effects of soil and/or water salinity

Consequences

• Reduced or failure to establish plants
• Reduced plant growth and development
• Reduced plant nutrient uptake
• Reduced plant water uptake
• Reduced or eliminates fruit production
• Reduced fruit quality

Symptoms

• Stunting (lack of growth)
• Marginal and/or tip leaf necrosis (leaf burn)
• Stem dieback
• Lack of flowering and fruiting

​

Salinity

Lychee and longan

Jackfruit

Avocado

Mango

Effect of constant and/or high winds

Consequences of constant winds

• Canopy distortion (leaning, twisting)
• Reduced plant establishment
• Prolonged time to production
• Increase fruit damage (wind scar)
• Reduced fruit production and/or quality

Consequences of extreme winds

• Defoliation and fruit drop
• Limb damage
• Tree toppling
• Wind throw – uprooted
• Sunburn of exposed limbs and trunks

​

Wind damage - photos

Wind scar avocado

Excessive leaf tearing banana

Wind scar caimito

Leaf tattering carambola

JC

Let’s adapt

Embracing the change

Crops with currently expanding acreage

• Abiu
• Annona (guanabana)
• Avocado (including ‘Hass’-like cv)
• Banana (fresh and cooking)
• Caimito
• Dragonfruit/pitaya
• Fingerlime
• Green guava
• Mango
• Lychee
• Longan
• Passionfruit (in open and

protected culture)

Crops with potential for expansion

• Annona – cherimoya, atemoya, sugar apple, custard apple
• Abiu
• Breadfruit?
• Carambola
• Pink guava
• Jackfruit
• Mamey sapote
• Rambutan?
• Sapodilla
• Wax jambu (java apple)

​

Planning and mitigating climate change

Site selection

• Match the crop with the “new” climate pattern
• Reduced/eliminated chilling temperatures (e.g., lychee, longan) – replant with something more adapted (e.g., annona)
• Increased rainfall frequency/intensity, season – establish/re-establish soil drainage infrastructures (e.g., beds, ditches, contours)

Plant selection - examples

Planning and mitigating climate change

Decreased rainfall amount

• Drought tolerant plants e.g., dragonfruit, guava, mango, sapodilla, sugar apple
• Organic mulches
• Increased distance between plants
• Establish low volume irrigation system (drip, sprinkler)

Increased rainfall (soil saturation)

• Flood tolerant plants e.g., banana, carambola, dragonfruit, guava, longan, lychee, mamey sapote, mango
• Install drainage infrastructure – beds, contours, ditches, tiles, etc.
• Cover crops and/or mulch – reduce runoff

Planning and mitigating climate change

Excessive temperatures (>92°F+)

• Heat tolerant plants (e.g., atemoya, guanabana, sugar apple, dragonfruit, guava, mango, papaya
• Use or establish overstory plants
• Overhead irrigation spritzing
• Whitewash applications

Increased wind speeds/durations

• Use topography – wind protected sites
• Establish wind breaks
• Avoid planting wind sensitive plants such as abiu, caimito, carambola, and papaya in wind-prone sites

Climatic requirements and potential risks and opportunities for selected fruit crops to expand northward

Examples

Guanabana

Estimated 80 and 30 acres of sugar apple and guanabana, respectively

Sugar apple

‘Donnie’

‘LambHass’

‘Choquette’

Currently Florida has ~4,200 acres with an

estimated 360 acres in Central Florida (USDA 2022; Crane 2018)

‘Monroe’

Avocado con’t

‘Carmen Hass’

‘GEM’

‘Lamb Hass’

‘Orange Essence’

‘Rapoza’

‘Lemon

Meringue’

Currently Florida has ~3,644 acres with additional plantings either set or planned for Central Florida (USDA 2022; Crane 2018)

‘Soule-Kitchen’

Currently Florida has ~721 acres with additional new planting in

Central Florida (Crane 2018)

‘Emperor’

Currently Florida has ~977 acres with plantings decreasing in Miami-Dade County and additional new planting increasing in Central Florida (USDA 2022)

‘Possum Purple’

Currently Florida has ~150 acres with new and planned acreage in Central Florida

‘Kohala’

‘Tigers Eye’

IM

Currently Florida has ~1,368 acres with new acreage in Central Florida

White type

Pink type

Currently Florida has ~1,390 acres (USDA, 2022; Crane, 2018)

Potential implication of climate trends for tropical fruit production

• Expansion of acreage of tropical and subtropical fruit crops north of south Florida will continue (e.g., avocado, mango, etc.)
• Potential to grow more cold sensitive tropical fruit crops than historically – ex. caimito, abiu, guanabana (soursop), cherimoya
• Some crops may be adapted to and profitable in protected agriculture (e.g., passionfruit)
• Commercial production of lychee may need to move north to be economically productive
• In the moderate to long future there may be potential for ultra tropicals ex. breadfruit, mangosteen, rambutan, etc.
• Potential for increased damage to fruit crops as extreme weather events become more common and/or more intense

​

So, what to expect

• Old-new crops will become more commercial (e.g., guanabana, caimito)
• Some crops already present in Florida, appear to be on the cusp of commercial production (e.g., abiu, breadfruit)
• The location of some crops will move (e.g., lychee production will need to move north of Miami-Dade Co. to be reliably productive). Mango is being planted in selected sites in Central Florida
• The acreage of a number of current crops will continue to expand northward and into parts of Central Florida

AgroClimate http://agroclimate.org/

Thanks

Questions