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Causing chaos for an adversary using Cynefin framework

Tim Grant

Professor emeritus, Netherlands Defence Academy

Retired But Active Researchers (R-BAR)

r̅

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Overview

  • Goal:
    • To identify additional Cynefin trajectories needed to create chaos for an adversary from 36 Chinese stratagems

​

  • Overview:
    • Introduction & motivation
    • Relevant theory: Cynefin framework; 36 stratagems
    • Analysis process & example
    • Trajectories identified
    • What else is needed to cause chaos
    • Conclusions & recommendations

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Introduction & motivation

  • My research areas:
    • Command & Control:
      • Military & emergency management
      • Co-supervising 1 PhD student (Civil-Military Interaction)
    • Offensive cyber operations:
      • OCO for deception in Multi-Domain Operations
  • Motivation:
    • Operating environment is complex and chaotic (chaoplexity)
    • Military instinct is to create order out of chaos
    • Turn this around:
      • How to cause chaos for an adversary?
    • Lens: Cynefin framework & 36 ancient Chinese stratagems

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Bousquet, 2009

Keegan, 1976

Von Creveld, 2003

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Theory: Cynefin contexts

  • Cynefin framework:
    • Helps decision maker identify situation & respond appropriately
  • Five contexts:
    • Simple
    • Complicated
    • Complex
    • Chaotic
    • Disorder
  • Order (RHS) & unorder (LHS):
    • Order = cause-effect relationship
    • Unorder = chaoplexity

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Snowden & Boone, 2007

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Theory: Cynefin trajectories

  • Ten trajectories:
    1. Collapse
    2. Imposition
    3. Incremental improvement
    4. Exploration
    5. Just-in-time transfer
    6. Swarming
    7. Divergence-convergence
    8. Entrainment breaking
    9. Liberation
    10. Immunization
  • NB Does not tell you how to change context

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Kurtz & Snowden, 2003

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Theory: truncating trajectories

  • To cause chaos:
    • Trajectory should end in Chaotic context
  • Existing trajectories in Cynefin literature:
    • Collapse already ends in Chaotic
    • Divergence-convergence (DC), Entrainment breaking (EB) & Immunization (IM) pass temporarily through Chaotic:
      • If truncated, they would end up in Chaotic:
        • E.g. DC: Simple -> (Complex -> Chaotic)* -> Complex
        • truncated as: Simple -> (Complex -> Chaotic)*
        • Similarly, EB: (Complicated -> Chaotic -> Complex)* -> Complicated
        • truncated as: Complicated -> Chaotic
      • Truncation could be achieved by deception:
        • Esp conditioning; cf (…)*

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Clark & Mitchell, 2019

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Theory: 36 stratagems (1)

  • History:
    • Origin unknown but first mention is AD 489-537
    • Stratagems mention events 700 years earlier
    • Source of modern versions is tattered book from 1941
  • The stratagems:
    • Original text is 138 Chinese characters
    • Plus name & explanation per stratagem
    • In 6 categories / battlefield situations:
      • No guarantee this is exhaustive
    • Probably based on I-Ching hexagrams:
      • To create aura of antiquity, says Verstappen

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Verstappen, 2017

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Theory: 36 stratagems (2)

  • Illustrative anecdotes:
    • Verstappen (2017):
      • Three+ ancient anecdotes per stratagem; 112 in all
      • Drawn from China’s & Japan’s Warring States eras
    • Terrien (2013):
      • Original book in French; English translation by Birdwell Institute
      • Ancient & modern anecdote per stratagem; 72 in all
      • Modern anecdotes: 20thC military operations employing electronics:
        • Radio, radar, missiles, chaff, EW, eavesdropping, deception
      • Warning: could appear to be chauvinistic to some readers!
    • This paper based on Terrien’s modern anecdotes

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Theory: 36 anecdotes

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No.

When

Where

Outline

1

1941

GB

RAF Chain Home reporting system

2

1982

Falklands

Exocet missiles sink HMS Sheffield & Atlantic Conveyor

3

1917

GB

Zimmerman telegram used to bring in USA

4

1905

Japan

Radio aids interception of Russian naval fleet

5

1941

France

Seize Würzburg radar components

6

1987

Libya

Mirages awaken enemy radar for attack by Martel anti-radar missile

7

1944

GB

Transmit radio traffic to persuade enemy of Pas de Calais landing

8

1944

GB

Simulate landing fleet using chaff

9

1994

Saudi Arabia

NSA intercepts French PM’s phone calls promoting Airbus airliners

10

1999

Kosovo

Serbians use civil radar to cue SAMs

11

1944

GB

False reporting of V-1 impact points

12

2007

Red Flag?

Rafale’s SPECTRA compensates for incorrect target coordinates

13

1965

Vietnam

Development of SEAD and Wild Weasel aircraft

14

1943

Med

Planting fake secret documents on cadaver (Operation Mincemeat)

15

1915?

Channel?

Cut underwater cables to enable interception of enemy messages

16

2000

France

Plant false accounting data to fool US buyer

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Analysis: process

  1. For each anecdote:
    1. Identify actors & relationships -> “OOB”
    2. Choose protagonist & target
    3. Identify timeline

…

    • Classify target’s action-sequence as trajectory
  1. Compare trajectories found:
    1. Discard trajectories that do not end up in Chaotic
    2. Merge duplicates

…

    • Compare with Kurtz & Snowdon’s (2003) trajectories:

Retain novel trajectories or variants on existing trajectories

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Analysis: example (1)

  • Verstappen’s (2017) anecdote for Stratagem 02:
    • “Tian Ji … divided his army into two parts, one to attack the capital of Wei, and the other to prepare an ambush along the route to the capital. When the Wei general Pang Juan heard that the capital was being attacked, he rushed his army back to its defence. Weakened and exhausted from the year-long siege and the forced march, the Wei troops were completely caught by surprise in the ambush and suffered heavy losses.”

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Analysis: example (2)

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Trajectories identified (1)

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Type

Trajectory

Anecdote(s)

Existing

Collapse: Simple -> Chaotic

02, 18, 25

Adapted

Truncated DC: Simple -> Complex -> Chaotic

03

 

Reduced DC: Complex -> Chaotic

22, 32

 

Truncated EB: Simple -> Complicated -> Chaotic

16, 34

 

Reduced EB: Complicated -> Chaotic

04, 05, 06, 08, 10, 11, 17, 19, 26, 29, 31, 33

Novel

Novel (1): Complicated -> Chaotic -> Complex -> Chaotic

Verstappen 02

 

Novel (2): Complicated -> Complex -> Chaotic

07, 09, 14, 27

 

Novel (3): Complicated -> Simple -> Chaotic

30

 

Novel (4): Complex -> Complicated -> Chaotic

35

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Trajectories identified (2)

  • Role of deception in truncated cases:

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No.

Deception?

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Yes, Britain used intercepted Zimmerman telegram in 1917 to bring USA into war against Germany.

04

No. (Better Japanese use of new radio technology in 1905)

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Yes, commando raid to blow up Bruneval radar station in WW II after seizing components for intel analysis

06

Yes, feint by Mirage fighters in 1987 to induce Libyan AD to light up radar, and then attacks with Martel missiles

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Yes, air dropping chaff to simulate 100-vessel landing fleet in WWII

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Yes, Serbian use of civil ATC radars to cue SAMs in 1999

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Yes, transmission of falsified V-1 impact locations via double agent in WW II

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Yes, foiling economic intelligence in 2000 by planting false accounting information

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Yes, feint by Mastiff drones in 1982 to force Syrians to activate radars, followed by attack with anti-radar missiles

19

No. (Information from decrypted message used in 1943 to shoot down aircraft transporting Admiral Yamamoto and staff.)

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What else is needed (1)

  • Implicit assumptions in Cynefin:
    • Own situation:
      • Need to represent adversary’s (perceived) situation too
    • Perfect perception:
      • Ignores fog & friction of war; need to envelop adversary in fog
    • OODA loop:
      • Only models Decide process; need to add Observe, Orient & Act
    • Decision-making process:
      • Varies according to context (not fixed as in OODA)
    • Organisation structure fixed:
      • Connection strengths vary instead
    • No learning:
      • Adversaries learn (the hard way, hopefully)

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What else is needed (2)

  • Further, need to model interaction:

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Protagonist

Target

Grant, Venter & Eloff, 2007

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Conclusions & recommendations

  • Conclusions:
    • Derived nine trajectories from Terrien’s (2013) anecdotes
      • One already exists; 4 are truncated versions; 4 novel
    • Also identified other changes needed to apply Cynefin
    • Limitations:
      • No guarantee stratagems cover all military situations
      • Trajectories identified by single analyst; better to use Delphi process
  • Contribution:

Shown that Cynefin can be adapted to create chaos for the adversary

  • Further work into:
    • Implementing trajectories into military operations planning
    • Enhance Cynefin to remove implicit assumptions
    • Investigate whether Cynefin or C2 theory better for creating chaos
    • How to change from one Cynefin context to another (Act)
    • Role of deception in creating chaos

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Any questions?

Tim Grant

Retired But Active Researchers (R-BAR)

tim.grant.work@gmail.com

+31 (0)638 193 749

All conference papers in ResearchGate – search using “Tim Grant” & “R-BAR”