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DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE �MONTVILLE TOWNSHIP�PUBLIC SCHOOLS

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January 17, 2023

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STATISTICAL FORECASTING

  • Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area since 1998.
  • Performed demographic studies for approximately 200 school districts in NY & NJ.
  • Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.

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RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

  • Executive Director
  • Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement
  • Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally
  • Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.

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PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

  • Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2023-24 through 2027-28, a 5-year period
  • Examine historical enrollments districtwide, by grade configuration (PK-5, 6-8, and 9-12) and by school
  • Research new housing starts and the impact on school district
  • Compare building capacities to current and projected enrollments
  • Update to demographic study completed in December 2021

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SCHOOL LOCATIONS

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ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE AREAS

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

  • District’s 2022-23 enrollment (10/15/22) is 3,421.5.
  • Enrollments steadily declined through 2021-22 before reversing trend in current year.
  • 2013-14 enrollment = 3,974.5 (decline of 553 students in 10 years)
  • Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS (PK-12)�2013-14 TO 2022-23

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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS �BY GRADE CONFIGURATION� 2013-14 TO 2022-23

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD�COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

  • Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1st graders in 2021-22 become 95 2nd graders in 2022-23 = 0.95)
  • Ratios above 1.000 = inward migration, below 1.000 = outward migration
  • Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. 8 of 13 average ratios (5-year) were above 1.000.
  • Average ratios were all above 1.000 in elementary grades (K-5).
  • Three survival ratios in 2022-23 were the highest in the last decade.
  • Average ratios were applied to current enrollments to project future enrollments.

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MONTVILLE TOWNSHIP�BIRTH COUNTS

  • Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later.
  • Analyzed birth data from 2008-2021. After a period of decline, births have stabilized in last 10 years (with the exception of 2017), ranging from 137-177.

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MONTVILLE HISTORICAL BIRTH COUNTS �2008-2021

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BIRTH COUNTS AND �BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN �SURVIVAL RATIOS

Birth Year

Number of Births

Montville Township

Kindergarten Students

Five Years Later

Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio

2008

189

248

1.312

2009

174

242

1.391

2010

162

206

1.272

2011

155

205

1.323

2012

173

204

1.179

2013

173

221

1.277

2014

165

250

1.515

2015

158

206

1.304

2016

173

225

1.301

2017

137

251

1.832

2018

177

N/A

N/A

2019

155

N/A

N/A

2020

164

N/A

N/A

2021

174

N/A

N/A

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BIRTHS BY ATTENDANCE AREA�2008-2021

Birth Year

Cedar Hill

Hilldale

Mason

Valley View

Woodmont

Unknown

2008

39

23

33

29

58

7

2009

33

32

18

20

59

12

2010

32

42

19

18

31

20

2011

19

54

20

18

42

2

2012

21

51

20

23

54

4

2013

28

51

24

25

43

2

2014

26

50

23

20

42

4

2015

28

45

25

19

40

1

2016

37

53

28

18

37

0

2017

22

41

20

16

36

2

2018

30

53

29

22

42

1

2019

35

41

24

19

35

1

2020

18

51

24

32

38

1

2021

38

47

33

20

33

3

Total

2008-2021

406

634

340

299

590

 

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PROPOSED NEW HOUSING �MONTVILLE TOWNSHIP

  • Potential for 955 non age-restricted housing units.
  • 16% of units (149) will be affordable to help meet affordable housing obligation.
  • Largest impact would be on Woodmont attendance area (69% of units)
  • 385 additional children are estimated from the developments – Rough estimate as bedroom distributions were not available for market-rate apartments and townhouses
  • Baseline projections were modified to account for new housing

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

  • Enrollments were projected by individual school from 2023-24 through 2027-28.
  • Two sets of projections- baseline and adjusted for housing growth (assuming all approved and proposed housing gets constructed).
  • Baseline – 3,500 in 2027-28 (+78.5)
  • Adjusted for Housing Growth – 3,811 in 2027-28 (+389.5)

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Year

PK

K

1

2

3

4

5

SE

PK-5

Total

6

7

8

SE

6-8

Total

9

10

11

12

SE

9-12

Total

PK-12

Total

Baseline

2023-24

64

265

264

252

242

280

245

33

1,645

266

234

219

10

729

238

281

271

259

16

1,065

3,439

2024-25

64

238

279

279

258

245

286

34

1,683

243

266

232

11

752

203

241

278

270

15

1,007

3,442

2025-26

64

249

249

296

287

261

251

35

1,692

284

243

264

12

803

215

205

239

277

14

950

3,445

2026-27

64

267

264

263

303

290

267

37

1,755

249

284

241

11

785

245

217

203

239

14

918

3,458

2027-28

64

255

281

281

270

307

296

37

1,791

265

249

281

12

807

223

248

215

203

13

902

3,500

Adjusted for Housing Growth

2023-24

64

272

271

258

249

287

252

33

1,686

272

240

225

10

747

243

285

276

264

16

1,084

3,517

2024-25

64

253

302

301

280

267

309

34

1,810

262

283

249

11

805

217

255

292

284

15

1,063

3,678

2025-26

64

259

273

329

319

292

283

35

1,854

314

269

288

12

883

237

225

259

297

14

1,032

3,769

2026-27

64

282

274

287

336

322

298

37

1,900

281

314

267

11

873

267

240

223

259

14

1,003

3,776

2027-28

64

270

296

291

294

340

328

37

1,920

296

281

311

12

900

247

270

238

223

13

991

3,811

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS�BY GRADE CONFIGURATION

  • PK-5: gain of 190-319 students in the baseline and adjusted projections
  • 6-8: gain of 84-177 students in the baseline and adjusted projections
  • 9-12: loss of 106.5-195.5 students in the baseline and adjusted projections

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CAPACITY ANALYSIS

School

Capacity (2020)

Current Enrollment 2022-23

Difference

Projected Enrollment 2027-28

Difference

Cedar Hill E.S. (PK-5)

305

328

-23

385

-80

Hilldale E.S. (K-5)

297

320

-23

358

-61

William Mason E.S. (K-5)

243

277

-34

380

-137

Valley View E.S. (PK-5)

345

366

-21

419

-74

Woodmont E.S (K-5)

266

310

-44

378

-112

Robert R. Lazar M.S. (6-8)

839

723

+116

900

-61

Montville Twp. H.S. (9-12)

1,020

1,097.5

-77.5

991

+29

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COVID-19

  • Effects of COVID-19 on enrollment are varied across the country.
  • Vermont has had an increase after years of enrollment decline (15% increase in some towns).
  • Big declines in large school districts- L.A (-11,000), Broward County (-8,500), Orange County (-8,000), Charlotte-Mecklenburg (-5,000).
  • People are leaving large metro areas to live in rural areas, either in 2nd homes or a purchased home. Will they return?

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USA POPULATION CHANGE �APRIL 2020 TO JULY 2021

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program 2021

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NJ POPULATION CHANGE �APRIL 2020 TO JULY 2021

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program 2021

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SUMMARY

  • Enrollments (PK-12) are projected to increase due to nearly 1,000 new housing units.
  • Enrollment gain is not projected to be uniform across the grade configurations.
  • Gains are projected to occur at the elementary (PK-5) and middle school (6-8) grade configurations.
  • HS is projected to decline (9-12) as the existing smaller cohorts rise through the system.

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