2 of 17

Good:�US Levels

Bad:

Trends

Ugly:

Inequality

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

3 of 17

America is the Most Productive (Large) Country

Productivity (GDP per hour) as a % of the US in 2014

100

United States

Netherlands

France

Germany

Australia

Canada

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

Japan

4 of 17

America is also the Worlds Richest (Large) Country

GDP Per Capita (2014 $)

20,000

40,000

60,000

United States

Netherlands

Australia

Germany

Canada

Spain

United Kingdom

France

Japan

Italy

5 of 17

Good:�US Levels

Bad:

Trends

Ugly:

Inequality

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

6 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

7 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

8 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

9 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

10 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

11 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

12 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

13 of 17

Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?

-5

US Productivity Growth

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

14 of 17

What about the future? It’s hard to tell as productivity growth is basically a random walk

-2

Productivity Growth - This Year

Productivity Growth - Last Year

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

15 of 17

Good:�US Levels

Bad:

Trends

Ugly:

Inequality

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

16 of 17

Since 1980 productivity growth has�not benefitted the median family much at all

100

150

200

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

2015

Productivity

(1980=100)

Real Median Family Income

(1980=100)

Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843

Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing

Christmas Carol is fortunately different.

Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.

Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.

Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having

Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.

But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.

This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

1 of 17

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