Daily Market Journal

Date:

30.04.2024 Tuesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• The buildup of shorts based off the liquidation heatmap at sundays high got attacked
• After an aggressive squeeze, we did the red path; continuing lower and going towards 60K
• Gold lost the 100EMA and the bands on the H4, attacking now the lows as I mentioned

BTC

• Price:
• Squeezed all the way up and took out sundays high, MSB on the 1H chart
• Price reversed straight after touching sundays high, confirming it as just being a liquidity grab
• Price sold off heavily, took out mondays low, frontrun 60K slightly so far (by a couple dollars); shows that probably a lot of buy orders were resting at exactly 60K, price couldnt get into them
• Price well below the H1 bands, leaves gap for a bounce up into them

• Liquidity levels:
• UP:
• 64705.3 (todays high), 64798.0 (fridays high), 65272.3 (thursdays high)
• DOWN:
• 59521.7, 59111.0

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Zoomed out on the daily, we can see that OI reset nicely, ne excess positions in the market compared to 60K in beginning of March
• Spot CVD had the first BOS to the downside after the MSB. Spot CVD can be a good indicator of a potential spot dominated bottom once if breaks structure to the upside
• On the aggregated chart OI up while price down; generally meaning shorts are present
• On the separate exchanges we can see that Bybit and OKX OI has risen on bounces, and wiped on red candles = generally meaning there have been some dip longers all the way hence the waves pattern in OI
• On Binance there was a steady increase in OI as price went down, could mean that Binance is shorting heavily, or the market gets supported by smart longs(not getting liquidated right away on the next red candle)

• Liquidation heatmap:
• On the liquidation heatmap we can see that the short layers are getting added aggressively as we trended down, could also support the above mentioned findings in OI

Daily:

H1:

BTC possible paths

1. Instant short squeeze, holding 60K: Red path: We hold 60K for now, and have a bounce up into the H1 bands, taking out some shorts that got aggressive on the way down

​

• Quick visit below 60K, squeezing shorts up: Blue path; We take out liquidity below 60K, if there is some demand, and shorts too aggressive we could see a fast move up taking everybody out who shorted late

​

• Dump lower: Green path; We just continue our dump without a bounce, take out all the longs at the 59-60K area, and maybe bounce from there

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• Alts weaker today than BTC
• They had a much weaker bounce to the upside in the Asia session
• Following BTC on the selloff so far
• BTC D strong green reversal yesterday, today a smaller green day
• Trying to hold the bands green and reclaim them.

(If we see further downside, probably Alts will get crushed more, so BTC Dominance might have a breakout again after the first false breakout)

Stocks, Macro

• Gold lost the bands and the 100EMA on the H4, attacking the lows right now. Will probably trend lower, but there is also the H4 200EMA close. Might find some support there before lower.
• ​
• Dollar trending up. Had initially an MSB on Friday confirming trend shift. Came back to the lows and tested them again, found support, and now did a BOS to the upside reclaiming 106.
• As we said couple days back, if it can hold 106, it might have a push to the highs and maybe even break out

​

• S&P and NDQ rounded out tops as we mentioned yesterday, had a red day today and sold off.
• This might have been the lower high bounce completed we were talking about, and they go back to their lows and test them.
• If tho they can hold here and reclaim yesterdays levels, they might have some more room to the upside.

​

Other coins, honorable mentions

• -

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• Market getting closer to the panic phase. Still not there, but getting there slowly. BTC breaking 60K, negative ETF flows, stocks retesting their lows, Gold breaking lower, some FUD comes out about this or that. Might transfer us into the panic phase.

​

• A lot has to happen in order to get back into bullish phase again, and it is not near imo. Prices would probably need weeks from here to reclaim structures and be ready for new runs. But that wouldn’t be that big of a time based panic for people, dip buyers would get rewarded quick.

​

• There needs to be disbelief on the up moves, and not hope and “now we’re back, bottom’s in” sentiment.

​

Further notes about the market - if any

Accept the fact that it might be over for now.

Accept that everything could go significantly lower.

Accept that the next bigger run to the upside might just come in months or even to the end of 2024.

Accept every possibility and be ready. The market doesnt care about you, but you should care about what the market is telling you.

Dont be the one that is hoping or coping or panicking or raging. If you are, reduce your risk. Play probabilities with proper risk management, and follow your systems at all times.

And you’ll be just super fine compared to the people who lose their whole net worth on trying to gamble their way to becoming rich.