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Highlight Your Local Climate Impacts With Regional Slide Decks

September 7, 2023

Presentation Slides:

http://cclusa.org/local-impacts-training

Ahead of the call cut and paste in chat:

We’ll get started at the top of the hour.
In the meantime, follow us online.

FB: http://facebook.com/citizensclimatelobby
Twitter: http://twitter.com/citizensclimate/

Read at top of hour: “Welcome to Citizens’ Climate University, a weekly webinar program of Citizens’ Climate Lobby that provides CCL supporters with access to in-depth training opportunities on topics relating to climate change and effective climate advocacy.

Join CCL's Research Coordinator Dana Nuccitelli for a special training on Dana's work assembling region-specific climate impacts presentation slide decks. These slide decks detail the most important climate change impacts for each of the seven regions in the continental United States. Each slide includes the scientific source references in the notes, which are primarily the 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment Report and the Working Group I of the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. These are the most comprehensive and authoritative assessments of the latest and greatest climate science research pertaining to the United States and world, respectively, but other individual papers are referenced in the slides as well.

The slide decks are intended to help CCL volunteers deliver local presentations about how climate change will impact people living in their area. The decks can be shortened, lengthened, or otherwise modified as needed to meet the time constraints of each presentation event and the needs of each unique audience.

Whether it be soaring temperatures, the growing number of wildfires, more frequent, stronger storms, pests affecting agriculture, sea level rise, increased flooding, diminishing snowpack, water scarcity or higher levels of asthma, communities across the world are dealing with the consequences of a warming planet. Educating the public and calling attention to local changes make climate change real for local citizens and answers the all-important question: “Why should we care?” We have many resources available to help you highlight local Impacts.

Cut and paste in chat:

Welcome! Thanks for joining, feel free to share where you’re calling in from and what brought you here in the chat.
Follow along with tonight’s slides: http://cclusa.org/local-impacts-training
Link to this training On CCL Community: https://community.citizensclimate.org/resources/item/19/52

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About Our Speaker

Dana Nuccitelli

Research Coordinator for

Citizens’ Climate Lobby

Environmental Scientist

Climate Journalist for

Yale Climate Connections

2022 SEAL Award

2016 NCSE Friend of the Planet Award

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Three Learning Goals

Outlining the key climate impacts in each of the seven U.S. regions

Discussing how to use this new resource in your own advocacy

Reintroducing CCL’s resource: regional climate impacts slide decks

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Overview of the U.S. Regions

The 4th National Climate Assessment Report

Link: �https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

�

•Expanded regional focus in response to growing demand for localized information:

•New chapter dedicated to the U.S. Caribbean, and Great Plains divided into Northern and Southern regions

•Draws on NOAA state climate summaries and downscaled projections

•Greater visibility to emerging topics, including:

•Effects of climate change on U.S. international interests, including trade, national security, and humanitarian assistance

•Air quality and climate change

•Complex, interconnected human and natural systems

•Focus on economic valuation, where possible:

•Quantification of climate change impacts in economic terms under different future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

•Does not yet characterize differential economic impacts for all 10 NCA regions

•Provides an indication of the potential for reducing risks through mitigation actions

�

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Slide Decks and Training Recordings

Each region has its own slide deck and a video recording of Dana delivering the presentation as a training tool.
Sources are included in the notes on each slide.
You’re encouraged to work with the decks and tailor them to the unique time constraints and audience of each individual event.

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Using the Research + Pair w/Solution

Important to pair climate impacts with solutions, not just dire messages!

This material can also help your:

Letters to the editor and op-eds
Meetings with members of Congress
Municipal resolutions
Endorsements
Editorial board meetings
Social media outreach

You can leverage your research and call attention to your locally changing climate in a variety of ways. But note: Research shows that dire facts and messages are more believable when coupled with a solution. Remember to talk about solutions when you share the bad news, otherwise you may create a sense of hopelessness in your audience.

Letters to the editor and op-eds: Respond to newspaper articles relating to the weather.
Meetings with members of Congress: Bring up the changing weather, local impacts, as well as current and future costs.
Municipal resolutions: Emphasize climate change’s financial consequences to the community and the urgency of passing legislation.
Endorsements: Talk with community leaders about local impacts and future consequences.
Presentations: Create slides that show local changes and impacts.
Editorial board meetings: Bring a list of recent newspaper articles relating to the changing climate.
Social media: screengrab any of the slide images you find compelling to share on your preferred platform with your favorite #hashtag solution like we need a #PriceOnCarbon

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4th National Climate Assessment Report

The National Climate Assessment

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a report to Congress and the President no less than every four years that “1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program…; 2) analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and 3) analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.”1

The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) fulfills that mandate in two volumes. This report, Volume II, draws on the foundational science described in Volume I, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).2 Volume II focuses on the human welfare, societal, and environmental elements of climate change and variability for 10 regions and 18 national topics, with particular attention paid to observed and projected risks, impacts, consideration of risk reduction, and implications under different mitigation pathways. Where possible, NCA4 Volume II provides examples of actions underway in communities across the United States to reduce the risks associated with climate change, increase resilience, and improve livelihoods.

This assessment was written to help inform decision-makers, utility and natural resource managers, public health officials, emergency planners, and other stakeholders by providing a thorough examination of the effects of climate change on the United States.

Climate Science Special Report: NCA4 Volume I

The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), published in 2017, serves as the first volume of NCA4. It provides a detailed analysis of how climate change is affecting the physical earth system across the United States and provides the foundational physical science upon which much of the assessment of impacts in this report is based. The CSSR integrates and evaluates current findings on climate science and discusses the uncertainties associated with these findings. It analyzes trends in climate change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends to the end of this century. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and other climate outcomes are based on a range of scenarios widely used in the climate research community, referred to as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). As an assessment and analysis of the physical science, the CSSR provides important input to the development of other parts of NCA4 and their primary focus on the human welfare, societal, economic, and environmental elements of climate change. A summary of the CSSR is provided in Chapter 2 (Our Changing Climate) of this report; the full report can be accessed at science2017.globalchange.gov.

Report Development, Review, and Approval Process

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) served as the administrative lead agency for the preparation of this report. A Federal Steering Committee, composed of representatives from USGCRP agencies, oversaw the report’s development.

A team of more than 300 federal and non-federal experts—including individuals from federal, state, and local governments, tribes and Indigenous communities, national laboratories, universities, and the private sector—volunteered their time to produce the assessment, with input from external stakeholders at each stage of the process. A series of regional engagement workshops reached more than 1,000 individuals in over 40 cities, while listening sessions, webinars, and public comment periods provided valuable input to the authors. Participants included decision-makers from the public and private sectors, resource and environmental managers, scientists, educators, representatives from businesses and nongovernmental organizations, and the interested public.

NCA4 Volume II was thoroughly reviewed by external experts and the general public, as well as the Federal Government (that is, the NCA4 Federal Steering Committee and several rounds of technical and policy review by the 13 federal agencies of the USGCRP). An expert external peer review of the whole report was performed by an ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM).3 Additional information on the development of this assessment can be found in Appendix 1: Report Development Process.

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IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

Working Group I (physical science basis) published August 2021
Working Group II (impacts, adaptation, vulnerability) published 28 February 2022
Working Group III (mitigation) to be published 04 April 2022

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Climate-Weather Connections

Higher temperatures = �more evaporation from soil
Drier conditions for �drought, heat, wildfires
More water vapor in atmosphere for precipitation, floods

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The Southeast

Flooding, Hurricanes, �Heat – The Most Vulnerable Region

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Rising Temperatures

In a worst case warming scenario, “nighttime minimum temperatures above 75°F and daytime maximum temperatures above 95°F become the summer norm and nights above 80°F and days above 100°F, now relatively rare occurrences, become commonplace.”

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Lost Work Hours due to Extreme Heat

Worst case warming scenario: 570 million labor hours lost per year in the Southeast by 2090.

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Sea Level Rise

Global sea level has risen about 9 inches and is expected to rise:

Another 4 to 6 inches by 2030
10–14 inches along the East Coast 2020–2050
14–18 inches along the Gulf Coast 2020–2050
Up to 5 feet by 2100

Louisiana is losing a football field of coastal wetlands every hour
Rising seas will lead to increased tidal flooding along the coasts

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America’s Most Vulnerable Region

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Southern Great Plains

Flooding, Drought,

& Heat Waves

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Extreme Heat

“The number of 100-degree days is expected to nearly double by 2036 compared to 2001-2020, with higher frequency of 100-degree days in urban areas.”

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Drought Risks in a 2.7°C World

In a current worldwide climate policy scenario, drought risks become larger than at any time in the past millennium
Multi-decade megadroughts become far more likely

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Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger

“It is likely that the proportion of major hurricane intensities and the frequency of rapid intensification events have both increased globally over the past 40 years.”
“It is likely that hurricane translation speed has slowed over the U.S. since 1900.”
1.5°C = 10% more hurricanes reaching Category 4–5
2°C = 13% more hurricanes reaching Category 4–5
4°C = 20% more hurricanes reaching Category 4–5

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The Southwest

Wildfires, Heat,

& Drought

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2022 Drought Study

2000–2021 was the driest 22-year period in the Southwest in at least the past 1,200 years
Human-caused climate change made the drought conditions about 42% more intense than they would have been naturally
The current drought “would not be on a megadrought trajectory in terms of severity or duration without [human-caused climate change] … would not even be classified as a single extended drought event”

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Shrinking Snowpack

Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountain snowpack melt provides a major source of water to the region
Snowpacks are shrinking

Less precipitation falling as snow, more as rain
Snowpack melting earlier in the year

Sierra Nevada snowpack has shrunk 25% so far, projected to decline 50–90% depending on future global warming
Significant risks of future water shortages throughout the region

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The Northwest

Shrinking Snowpack,

Stressed Natural Resources

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Climate Change Forest Stressors

Droughts and shrinking snowpacks create water stress
Extreme heat waves can create heat stress
Worsening wildfires endanger forests
Warmer winters expand bark beetle outbreaks

bark beetles killed 7% of Western forest area 1979–2012

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Bark Beetles

Bark beetle “galleries” can kill trees by cutting off nutrient flow.
Drought makes trees especially susceptible to bark beetles

When stressed, trees have less resources to devote to making waxy resin and chemicals that act as defenses against beetles
In warmer temperatures beetles reach reproductive age sooner and produce more offspring.

2021 study estimated that each 1°C of warming increases # of trees killed by beetles 20%; 35–40% during a drought

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Northern Great

Plains

Weather Instability,

Agriculture

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Heat & CO₂ Impacts on Agriculture

Extreme heat during pollination and grain fill periods will reduce crop yields.
Weeds, invasive species, pests are expected to increase in abundance.
Longer growing seasons.
CO₂ fertilization benefits some crops.
Less water reliability will pose a challenge to agriculture.
Grassland forage quality will decrease with “substantial consequences for the rate at which ruminants gain weight during the primary growing season in the largest remaining rangeland ecosystem in North America.”

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Precipitation Changes

Precipitation patterns are projected to shift:

10–30% increase in winter and spring precipitation
10–20% decrease in summer precipitation in high-warming scenarios
Extreme precipitation 8-10% more intense, up to 50% more frequent by 2050

Precipitation pattern changes can have a disruptive effect on productivity and slow economic growth

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Impacts on Recreation

Shrinking snowpack and earlier peak in runoff lead to lower streamflows, especially in late summer
Shifts in habitat suitability in favor of warmwater fish species are projected to reduce the value of coldwater fishing in the Northern Great Plains by $25 million to $66 million per year
Higher stream temperatures are already increasing the vulnerability of coldwater fish species to diseases, such as proliferative kidney disease

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The Midwest

Agriculture, Heat,

& Biodiversity

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Midwest Importance for Agriculture

75% of Midwest farmland used to grow corn & soybeans

Annual Crop Values:

Corn: $28 billion
Soybeans: $21 billion
Wheat: $1.8 billion
Oats: $1.2 billion

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Climate Change is Bad for Crops

Various studies project a 5–10% reduction in corn yields per 1°C of warming
Drought and excess rain have historically been the primary contributors to Midwest crop losses
In the coming decades, heat will be the biggest factor in corn yields and precipitation changes for soybean yields
Warming winters allow pest populations to grow and new pests and crop pathogens to expand northward

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How Bad will Heat Waves Get?

Days above 100°F in Chicago in two scenarios: current climate policies succeed (RCP4.5) or worst case scenario failure (RCP8.5), in which Chicago heat starts to look like Las Vegas, with 2,000 additional heat deaths per year

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Plants are Struggling to Adapt

Observed shift in WI forest

understory plants from

1950s to 2000s

Change in climate factors

for understory plants from

1950s to 2000s

Difference between where planet species are located and where they should be to adapt to changing climate

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The Northeast

Flooding, Heat,

& Fisheries

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Shifting Marine Species

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Additional Local Impact Resources

CCL Community has a wealth of local impact resources available for your use.
Visit Resources -> Local Impacts to explore the many additional pages you can use to enhance your connections that the local impacts your community is facing from climate change.

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It’s time to talk about policy solutions!

This would be a good place to transition to talking about climate policy solutions like clean energy permitting reform and carbon fee & dividend.

A few example slides are included below, from the d eck available here

Also remember that no two presentations are alike. You’ll always have different audiences and time constraints and will have to adjust the slides accordingly. Focusing on local climate impacts in the first segment of the presentation sets the table for highlighting CCL’s policy solutions agenda in the second segment. Focusing on solutions at the end leaves the audience with an empowering message. We can solve the climate crisis, so let’s get to work.

Happy presenting!

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Clean Energy Permitting Reform is Important

It’s time to build America’s clean energy economy. Permitting reform will make that possible by unlocking clean energy infrastructure that’s waiting to be built, and by getting that clean energy to American households and businesses.

cclusa.org/permitting-training

cclusa.org/permitting-training-advanced

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If we don’t start building clean energy infrastructure faster, we will only achieve about 20% of the potential carbon pollution reduction from climate policy that is already in place.

(Princeton REPEAT Project)

only�20%

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CCL Supports Policies that…

Add to America’s capacity to transmit clean electricity
Speed up the approval of clean energy projects that are waiting to be built
Preserve communities’ ability to make their voices heard on the environmental and other impacts of proposed energy projects

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Time For Questions

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Thank You!

Email: Dana.Nuccitelli@citizensclimate.org

Nerd Corner link: cclusa.org/nerd-corner

Questions? Ask on CCL Community’s Forums: https://community.citizensclimate.org/forums

www.citizensclimatelobby.org