88E / EEENF
Icewine East Drilling
Progress Tracker
Disclaimer: We are NOT geologists - this document is used by our team to internally to try and visualise the drilling progress made by 88E, it should not be relied upon by anyone to make any decisions. For all disclaimers and disclosures please visit our website.
Our Big Bet:
“88E makes a large oil discovery that is acquired by a major for over A$1BN”
NOTE: our “Big Bet” is what we HOPE the ultimate success scenario looks like for this particular Investment over the long term (3+ years). There is a lot of work to be done, many risks involved - just some of which we list in our 88E Investment memo. Success will require a significant amount of luck. There is no guarantee that our Big Bet will ever come true.
This tracker will follow 88E’s 2023 drilling program at its Icewine East project.
The context:
As of 23/08/2022, Pantheon’s market cap is $1.7 billion. 88E is capped at $164M.
15 December 2016 - 88E is granted the now “Icewine East” ground.
88E is declared highest bidder for additional ~142,650 acres of ground near its existing Icewine West project.
21 December 2018 - Pantheon acquires ground bordering 88E
Pantheon acquires the ground bordering 88E’s Project Icewine.
~250,000 acre landholding with a gross unrisked P50 prospective resource of 2 billion barrels of oil.
Close to US$300M of historical exploration over the projects.
Deal values the vendor “Great Bear” at US$49M.
Some context on Pantheon’s project:
Key takeaways:
Pantheon now just need to prove up the resource and show that it can be commercially produced.
25 March 2019 - Pantheon flow tests Alkaid #1
Key takeaways:
Pantheon market cap went from ~$60M to ~$120M.
88E valued at ~$120M.
September 2019 - Separated view of 88E’s ground (first look at “Icewine East”.
By 2019, 88E split Project Icewine into three different areas:
Note:
Area C: Eastern Fairway is now “Icewine East”.
The Central Fairway acreage has been dropped from 88E’s asset portfolio.
14 January 2021 - Pantheon starts drilling Talitha #A
Key takeaways:
Video of an operations update at the time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtcuTMZRTx0&t=2s
Pantheon’s market cap went from ~$200M to ~$581M.
88E valued at ~$96M
7th February 2022 - Pantheon flow tests Talitha #A
Key takeaways:
Pantheon market cap went from ~$581M to $1.3 billion.
88E valued at ~$592M
(during Merlin-2 drilling)
24th March 2022 - Pantheon flow tests Theta West #1
Key takeaways:
Pantheon Market cap went from ~$1.3 billion to $1.5 billion.
88E valued at ~$594M
(during Merlin-2 drilling)
March 2022 - Pantheon “retro”
Pantheon now has 3/3 wells drilled and flow tested over its ground.
All three wells confirmed high quality light oils and successfully delivered flow rates.
What happens next?
Horizontal well (Alkaid #2) planned to follow up horizontal Alkaid #1.
Pantheon think the well could potentially produce ~1,600 to 2,200 barrels of oil per day.
29th June 2022 - 88E acquires 3D seismic data over its ground
Key takeaways:
7th July 2022 - Pantheon starts drilling first horizontal well - Alkaid #2
Pantheon start drilling Alkaid #2.
Pantheon mention the ultimate objective for the well is “to gain robust production test data to accurately assess the ultimate potential of the reservoir”.
Pantheon’s previous estimates for the project show a US$595M NPV across the prospect at an oil price of US$55/barrel.
29th July 2022 - Pantheon strikes oil with Alkaid #2
Key takeaways:
�What this means for 88E:�
All three of the reservoirs are interpreted to extend into 88E’s ground to the south.
10th August 2022 - 88E puts out first ever prospective resource number for Icewine East.
Key takeaways:
Maiden prospective resource estimate:
1.03 billion barrels on a gross mean unrisked basis.
Net to 88E unrisked prospective resource
is ~647 million barrels of oil.
12th August 2022 - 88E raises $14.9M at 0.9c per share
18th August 2022 - Pantheon completes horizontal drilling section of its Alkaid #2 well.
Key takeaways:
The next step for Pantheon is to stimulate the well and do a long term production test.
Pantheon management commentary (video):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7knDhbHzIk
August 2022 - 88E retro:
What has 88E’s neighbour Pantheon done so far?
What’s next for Pantheon?
What has 88E done so far?
What’s next for 88E?
Good news for Pantheon means good news for 88E
August 2022 - 88E retro (continued):
Pantheon’s technical director Bob Rosenthal said the company may be “on the path to unlocking an enormous basin play.”
We think there is a good chance that 88E’s ground forms part of this “enormous basin play”.
We want to see 88E drill its well in 2023 and replicate the success of its neighbour Pantheon Resources.
Schematic of 88E’s proposed 2023 well
05 September 2022 - Drilling location finalised
3D Seismic data interpretation completed
Analysis identifies “sweet spots”
Six new untested conventional reservoir structures.
07 December 2022 - Rig contract executed
What’s next for 88E?
06 February 2023 - 88E raises $17.5M at 0.95c per share
Hickory-1 well now fully funded.�($17.5M raised + $14.1M in cash at 31-December 2022.)
88E expected cost for the drilling program is ~US$10M
06 February 2023 - Drill permit approved for the Hickory-1 well
27 February 2023 - Ice pad nearing completion - drilling in coming weeks
What’s next for 88E?
🔄 Drilling of 88E’s Hickory-1 well
10 March 2023 - ⚠️ Hickory-1 well spudded ⚠️
Here is the expected timeline for 88E’s drilling:
Our bull/bear case expectations for this well are relatively simple:
29 March 2023 - Hickory-1 operations update
Updated timeline for 88E’s Hickory-1 Well:
3 April 2023 - Total Depth hit - Oil shows and new reservoir identified.
Updated timeline for 88E’s Hickory-1 Well:
Our key takeaways:
11 April 2023 - Wireline logging program completed
Our key takeaways:
Flow testing program planned for later this year/early 2024.
ConocoPhillips hit 72 feet & 42 feet of net pay at Willow:
Santos’ Pikka oil field had <225 feet.
19 April 2023 - First results from Hickory-1
Drill results exceed pre-drill expectations
23 June 2023 - Permitting and planning of flow test starts
Permitting and planning process for a flow test in late 2023/early 2024.
1 August 2023 - What’s next for 88E?
Final analysis & results from Hickory-1 still pending
Flow test Q4-2023/Q1-2024
5 September 2023 - Rig contracted for upcoming flow test
Flow test Q4 2023 / Q1 2024
The drill rig 88E will be using