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Simulation

Past and Future?

Andy Fawkes

MBDA Stevenage – 22 March 2013

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Why this talk?

This talk is about the History of Simulation and thoughts on its Future but it is also about:

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Technology and Innovation

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Background

  • Not definitive history
    • Key Highlights
    • Other important work being carried out
  • Focus on training and air training until last 20 years
  • Will look at parallel developments outside simulation

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Outline

  • A History of Simulation
  • The Future?
  • Lessons from History?

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Why Use Simulation?

Reduce Costs

Improve Training

Reduce Environmental Impact

Safety

Reduce Time to Train

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1900s

  • Wright Brothers

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1910s

  • Leon Levavasseur’s Antoinette Barrel – France 1910

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Sanders Teacher

Penguin System

1910s

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  • Ruggles Orientator

1910s

Popular Science - Jul 1919

“Maj.-Gen. George W. Squier said recently that 90% of the flying casualties during the war were caused not by bullets, or badly built machines, but by "the failure of the man””

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  • 1920 - First Flying Lesson
  • 1926 - First Solo Flight
  • 1928 - Purchased Cessna
  • 1929 - First Link Pilot Trainer
  • 1929 - Link Aeronautical Corp formed

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1920s – Edwin A Link (born 1904)

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1930s – Edwin A Link

  • Trainer found early acceptance in amusement parks as a coin-operated ride
  • 1931 Patent “Combination Training Device for Student Aviators and entertainment Apparatus”
  • Link Flying School in 1930, featuring the Link Trainer as the core of the curriculum

http://library.binghamton.edu/specialcollections/findingaids/linkcoll_m3.html

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1930s – Link Trainers

  • The U.S. Army Air Corps, which had taken over air mail routes in February 1934 with disastrous results, placed an order for six fully-instrumented trainers ($3,500 a piece)
  • They were used principally for “Blind” or Instrument Training

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http://library.binghamton.edu/specialcollections/findingaids/linkcoll_m3.html

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  • In 1937, the first Link Trainers were delivered to the RAF
  • By 1940 trainers had been shipped to over thirty-five countries around the world
  • A Luftwaffe bomber pilot of 1940 spent 50 hours in a Link Trainer

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1940s

  • The Link Trainer came into widespread use during WWII
  • 10,000 “blue box” trainers were used to improve safety and shorten training time for over 500,000 pilots
  • The trainers were used preceding actual flight training and as an opportunity to sharpen skills

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Crail Airfield, Scotland, Torpedo Attack Training Building 1940s

http://www.28dayslater.co.uk/forums/military-sites/70562-crail-airfield-%5Bhms-jackdaw-hms-bruce-jssl%5D-april-2012-a.html

The epidiascope visual system for the Torpedo Attack Trainer was produced by Strand Electric, better known for stage lighting

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1940s - RAF Instructor Initiatives

  • RAF Silloth Trainer (c.1940) for the Halifax
  • Designed for the training of all members of the crew
  • Primarily a type familiarization trainer for learning drills and the handling of malfunctions
  • All engine, electric and hydraulic systems simulated
  • An instructor's panel was provided to enable monitoring of the crew and malfunction insertion
  • All computation was pneumatic, as in the Link Trainer

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Rise of Computers

  • World War II era gun directors, gun data computers, and bomb sights used mechanical analogue computers
  • 1943 - Project Whirlwind begins. US Navy approaches the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to build a flight simulator to train bomber crews
  • 1944 - The first Colossus is operational, designed to break the complex Lorenz ciphers used by the Nazis during WWII

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Curtiss-Wright P-3 Ground Instrument Trainer

  • This trainer was developed about 1945 and is equipped with a very early electronic analogue AC and DC computer.
  • The trainer simulates the B-25J bombing plane but is equipped with a single engine and a single seat.
  • Ad hoc methods used to achieve the desired aeroplane characteristics
  • Debate in late 1940s about need for motion

http://members.ziggo.nl/hjaspers000/Page2.htm

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1950s

  • It was realised from the earliest days of programmable electronic digital computers that a potential application would be in real-time digital simulation.
  • At the same time aircraft manufacturers began to produce much more complete data and to perform more extensive flight development programmes.
  • US Navy funded the Universal Digital Operational Flight Trainer which (by 1960) demonstrated the feasibility of digital simulation
  • In 1958, Redifon received a contract from BOAC for the production of a pitch motion system as part of a Comet IV simulator.

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1960s

  • Early 60's Link developed a special purpose digital computer, the Link Mark I, designed for real-time simulation
  • By late 60's general purpose digital computers were suitable for simulation
  • Visual Systems were typically based on a "model board“ system

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1960s - Mobile Simulation for B52s

http://www.alpo-astronomy.org/jbeish/MyCareer.htm

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1960s

  • 1962
  • Spacewar! Ran on a DEC PDP-1 mini-computer and generally considered the first Shooter game

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1960s – Internet Origins

  • 1960 - J. C. R. Licklider inspired the early ARPANET work, calling for a global network through his paper, Man-Computer Symbiosis:
    • "A network of such [computers], connected to one another by wide-band communication lines [which provided] the functions of present-day libraries together with anticipated advances in information storage and retrieval and [other] symbiotic functions.“
  • 1969 - The first ARPANET link was established between the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Stanford Research Institute

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1970s

1979

1977

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1973 – First Mobile Call

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Looking Forward in 1974

Arthur C. Clarke

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1970s - Internet

  • 1974 - The term "internet" was first adopted as an abbreviation of the term internetworking
  • 1978 - TCP/IP emerges in nearly final form

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1970s - SIMNET

  • 1978, Captain Jack A. Thorpe, Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) “Future Views: Aircrew Training 1980-2000”
  • "advances which are seen on the horizon are not simple improvements in teaching techniques or higher fidelity simulators, but rather bold concepts which tightly align training systems with real combat readiness and make them indistinguishable."

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SIMNET Concept - 1978

SIMNET: An Insider’s Perspective: Neale Cosby - March 1995

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SIMNET Testbed and Architecture - 1985

SIMNET: An Insider’s Perspective: Neale Cosby - March 1995

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1980s - Internet

  • 1981 – ARPANET number of hosts 213
  • 1982 – TCP/IP protocol suite formalized
  • 1983 – MILNET split off from ARPANET
  • 1985 – First .COM domain name registered
  • 1986 – US NSFNET with 56 kbit/s links

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1990s

  • 1983 - SIMNET - simulator networking
  • 1990 - Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS)
  • 1994 - STOW (Synthetic Theater of War)
    • STOW-E (94) – Instrumented live, virtual DIS/SIMNET simulators, CGF/constructive (LVC)
  • 1995 – High Level Architecture
  • 1997 – STOW-A (inc UK)
  • 1998 – UK SeBA

SIMNET: An Insider’s Perspective: Neale Cosby - March 1995

Synthetic Theater of War - Europe (STOW-E) Final Report 1995

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1990s - Internet

  • 1990 – WWW concept published
  • 1991 – First server outside Europe
  • 1993 – Mosaic Browser
  • 1995 – Amazon.com online retailer
  • 1995 – eBay online auction and shopping
  • 1998 – Google Search

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Looking Forward in 1993

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2000s

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VBS

  • 1999 - Bohemia Interactive is Founded
  • 2001 - Bohemia’s Operation Flashpoint launches
    • top selling game in the UK, Ger, FR, Aus, Czech Rep and other countries
    • large scale detailed terrain areas and maps, a small team C2 system, game engine flexibility, connectivity and user driven content
  • 2001 - VBS1 development commences with US Marines as first customer
    • Customers US, UK, NL, Can, Aus, Israel, NZ and others
  • 2007 - VBS2 launches
    • View distances five times greater than VBS1
    • HLA/DIS
  • 2013 - VBS2 is now a General Purpose Simulation for the Joint Battlespace.

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  • It has changed the simulation landscape by its accessibility, cost effectiveness and user acceptance

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2010s - Access to Simulation

1990

2000

2010

Numbers

10’s

100’s

1000’s

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Never Replace Live?

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The Future?

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Futurists (1964)

Arthur C. Clarke

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Minority Report (2002)

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Putting Technology in Perspective

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www.intel.com

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Are things changing?

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Arts and Science

Simulacrum - Kimatica

http://youtu.be/n0dyXfzTMWA

Microsoft Research

http://youtu.be/MvP4cHfUD5g

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Looking Ahead?

  • Robots/AI
  • Internet of Things/”Connected Life”
  • Wearable Computers
  • Sensors
  • Augmented Reality
  • 3D Printing/3D Scanning
  • “Generation C”

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Internet of Things/Connected Life�“Internet 2”

  • “Hot” Applications
    • Cars
      • By 2020 expected that 90% of new passenger cars sold will be connected to the Internet
      • 75% of cars on the road by 2040 will be autonomous IEEE (Sep 12)
    • Health and Assisted Living
    • Smart Meters
    • Security
    • Building Automation

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Digital and Online Classrooms

South Korea 2015

Florida 2015

Stanford University

2012 - 23,000 Graduates

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Train Less.. Train at All?

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Hatsune Miku

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Diluting the Human Experience?

andy.fawkes@thinke.co.uk

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Simulation Future – The Holodeck?

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Real or Virtual?

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Lessons from History?

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Themes of Talk – Paths to Solutions

Practical

Economic

Useful

Trusted

Solution

Visionary or “Far Fetched” Ideas

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Themes of Talk – Serious or Fun?

Arts and Entertainment

Application

“Serious” Application

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Themes of Talk – Digital Technology Convergence

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Questions

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andy.fawkes@thinke.co.uk