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��REDUCING POVERTY AMONG THE URBAN POOR IN UGANDA. EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS AND INCLUSIVENESS OF THE PARISH DEVELOPMENT MODEL �Research design presentation

Dr. Mary Nantongo

Makerere University Business School/NIERA

Africa evidence Week, 18-21 June 2023

Nairobi, Kenya

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Study aim

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To evaluate the impact of interventions under the Parish Development Model (PDM), on the welfare of the vulnerable urban poor in Kampala City

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The Parish Development Model (PDM)

The government of Uganda recently proposed a new development initiative (launched on 26 February 2022) to move millions of people out of poverty (39% of Ugandans in the subsistence economy)

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This new initiative - the PDM- is the main implementation mechanism of the third National Development Plan, NDPIII (2020-2025)

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The PDM devolves both decision-making power and financial resources to the lowest unit –the parish

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Ultimately:

    • Create wealth and employment
    • Increase household Incomes

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The PDM intervention-The seven pillars

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Target Population-Financial Inclusion

Subsistence households

Majority are youth and women

    • Depend on others for handouts
    • Produce for home consumption
    • Have food/cash only for the day

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Selection of PDM beneficiaries

  • Subsistence households have been organized into common enterprise groups that are engaged in a common income-generating activity within their locality i.e., at the Village/Zone and the Parish/Ward level.
  • Enterprise groups in Kampala include:

Poultry, Mushroom growing, Fish farming, Piggery, Aquaculture, Roasting e.g Maize, Meat, Plantain (Gonja), Sweetpotatoes, Food making/Open eat away places (Toninyira) including tea and juice making, Fresh food selling, Making local brew, Chapati making/Rolex, Small community stalls (Omudaala), Community laundries (Ddobbi), Briquette making, House cleaning and maintenance, Gym and sports, Secretarial work, Pavers and brick making, Car Garages, carpentry, Beauty and body care

  • PDM beneficiaries were selected through a wealth ranking exercise
  • Subsistence households eligible to apply for PDM funds under the financial inclusion pillar

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Quantitative Research questions

  • What is the impact of the PDM on the incomes of beneficiary households in urban and peri-urban areas of Kampala City?
  • What is the impact of the PDM on the poverty levels of beneficiary households in urban and peri-urban areas of Kampala City?
  • What are the distributional impacts of the PDM on different categories of beneficiary households including the poor, women, and the youth in urban and peri-urban areas of Kampala City? 
  • How does inclusive participation in decision making in terms of access to resources, benefits and opportunities facilitate PDM’s efforts in poverty reduction?

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Qualitative Research questions

  • How does PDM compare with similar poverty reduction programs implemented in the past? That is; What were the causes of success or failure of these programs and how have these been accounted for in the current model?
  • How prepared are PDM’s implementation structures to access, manage and utilize PDM funds for the benefit of the most vulnerable people-the urban poor?
  • To what extent does PDM’s decentralized decision-making empower the urban poor to make decisions that can lift their households out of poverty?
  • To what extent does PDM’s implementation strategy of adhering to good governance principles of inclusive decision making, collaboration and coordination i.e whole of government approach, legitimacy, accountability and transparency facilitate its goal of reducing poverty and improving incomes of the urban poor?

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Study location

Kampala Capital City-PDM in Kampala has progressed quickly enough to allow us to collect the required data

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All five divisions:

  • Makindye
  • Nakawa
  • Kawempe
  • Lubaga
  • Central

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Research design

  • Mixed methods -qualitative and quantitative approaches
  • Qualitative data collection methods

Key informant interviews with key stakeholders of PDM

    • Kampala Capital City officials
    • Parish/ward chiefs
    • Parish/ward committee members
    • Focus group discussions with leaders of beneficiary enterprises
    • Document reviews

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Sampling -Multistage sampling approach

All five divisions in Kampala City

This is where households have been registered in the PDM Information System i.e

for whom we can select treatment and control groups

PDM in Kampala has progressed quickly enough to allow us to collect the required data

All 30 parishes out of the 100

22 treatment households in each parish (660)

22 control households in each parish (660)

Exploiting the PDM’s wealth ranking criteria, treatment and control

households will be selected from above and below the eligibility

cut off point.

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Data Analysis

  • Regression discontinuity design (RDD) will be used
    • Considering that selection of PDM beneficiaries employs a threshold rule which determines eligibility for the program
  • Endogenous Treatment and Control Function Approach as robustness check