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Instructions before this interactive talk

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< You will need your cell-phone or your laptop to participate

< Please, log in the Confido app: https://gpi.confido.tools

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Use of internal forecasting platform for x-risk

Blanka Havlíčková

EAGx Prague, June 2022

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Problems with asking x-risk forecasting questions on public platforms

  • INFOHAZARD

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Problems with asking x-risk forecasting questions on public platforms

  • INFOHAZARD
  • LOTS OF CONTEXT NEEDED

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Problems with asking x-risk forecasting questions on public platforms

  • INFOHAZARD
  • LOTS OF CONTEXT NEEDED
  • NEGLECTED TOPICS DO NOT GET MUCH ATTENTION

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Problems with asking x-risk forecasting questions on public platforms

  • INFOHAZARD
  • LOTS OF CONTEXT NEEDED
  • NEGLECTED TOPICS DO NOT GET MUCH ATTENTION
  • THESE PLATFORMS ARE USUALLY NOT VERY INTUITIVE

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Possible solution

  • Internal platform for keeping track of forecasts / estimates / beliefs within a group

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Possible solution

  • Internal platform for keeping track of forecasts / estimates / beliefs within a group
  • Can be used on different time scales from hours (during a meeting) to years (to keep track of long term predictions)

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Possible solution

  • Internal platform for keeping track of forecasts / estimates / beliefs within a group
  • Can be used on different time scales from hours (during a meeting) to years (to keep track of long term predictions)
  • Can be used to track how beliefs change over time

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Possible solution

  • Internal platform for keeping track of forecasts / estimates / beliefs within a group
  • Can be used on different time scales from hours (during a meeting) to years (to keep track of long term predictions)
  • Can be used to track how beliefs change over time
  • User-friendly, simple use cases, low barrier to use

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Possible solution

  • Internal platform for keeping track of forecasts / estimates / beliefs within a group
  • Can be used on different time scales from hours (during a meeting) to years (to keep track of long term predictions)
  • Can be used to track how beliefs change over time
  • User-friendly, simple use cases, low barrier to use
  • Organizations could then easily share their estimates with other experts

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We can test how it could possibly work

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< You will need your cell-phone or your laptop to participate

< Please, log in the Confido app: https://gpi.confido.tools/

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Question 1

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What proportion of your group do you trust to give their honest best estimates when answering strategic forecasting questions?

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(vs. e.g. trying to consciously or unconsciously trying to shift the aggregate towards their preferred viewpoint)

  • by group we mean an organization or community you cooperate with on solving existential risk/long-term problems
  • we will not present you with results on this question

This is an interactive workshop. Participate at https://gpi.confido.tools/

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Question 2

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If such an app as described by Blanka during her talk is available, will you use it at least once?

This could mean using it for one event, meeting, etc. or a more long-term use within a group/organization.

We do not count usage for testing purposes and usage during this workshop.

This is an interactive workshop. Participate at https://gpi.confido.tools/

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Question 3

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What is the average of the answers to the previous question (in percentage points)? [0..100]

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The wording of the previous question was “If such an app described by Blanka during her talk is available, would you use it seriously (not for testing purposes) at least once (for at least one meeting/one lecture in future)?”

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We count only answers of people present in this room, who are actively participating in the Confido app

This is an interactive workshop. Participate at https://gpi.confido.tools/

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Result 2

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Result 3

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FEEDBACK FORM

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  • What kind of features should this new app have to be beneficial for your decision-making?
  • Mailing list
  • Beta-testers list

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Questions about the next GPI forecasting existential risk workshop in 2023 and existential risk questions

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  • You can add your own questions you would like to have answered in the app

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Thank you for your attention

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Contact: blanka@confido.tools