National Geographic Images

Jianing Cai, Tianwei Zhao, Tina Lin

Group Leader: Tina Lin

Outline

1. Motivation / Context
2. Hypothesis / Questions
3. Data
4. Tricky Analysis Decision
5. Results / Conclusions
6. Existing Bias / Looking Forward
7. References / Acknowledgments

1. Motivation & Context

1. National Geographic is a magazine that publishes monthly issues on stories related to geography, innovation, archaeology, human development, and changes in environment.
2. The magazine was founded in 1888, and we are interested to see the evolution of the magazine by examining its cover images.
3. With the rise of climate change, we sought to investigate whether the cover images of the last 40 years corresponded to the changes of environment overtime.

2. Hypothesis / Question

1. What images are often found on the cover of National Geographic, and how do the changes over time reflect the problems faced by humans, fauna, and the natural habitats of Earth?
2. Does the changes of the cover reflect its current status of climate change or human trajectory?

Analysis Plan

3. Data

1. Monthly National Geographic Cover Images from 1980 to 2023
2. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration from 1980 to May 2023 (Annual Percentage change)
3. Annual Deforestation in Brazilian Amazon Data from 1988 to 2022 (sq mile)
4. Count of US Endangered Animal Species from 1980 to 2022

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All of our data can be accessed through our project’s github repository (https://github.com/JianingC0913/DS4002_Project2).

3. Data

4. Tricky Analysis Decision

1. Regression choice: Linear → Probit and Stepwise
2. Miscommunication during data collection
1. “Environmental theme” vs “Environmental issue”
1. Environmental theme - a broad inclusion of images that are related to the environment.
1. Ex. animals, landscape, natural disaster, pollution, etc.
2. Environmental issue - images that showcase problems or disruptions to the usual function of the environment.
• Ex. Deforestation, pollution, wildfires, etc.

5. Results and Conclusion

Statistically Significant:

Climate Change Issues & Atmospheric CO2 content (+)

Climate Change Issues & Time (+)

Statistically Insignificant:

Climate change Issues & Endangered Species (-)

Environmental Issues & Endangered Species (+)

Environmental Issues & Deforestation (+)

5. Result - 1

Climate change issues & CO2

y: probability of climate change mentionings

x: Percent annual change in Atmospheric CO2

y = -2.5924 + 1.5432 x ;

p-value = 0.004 <0.05

When Atmospheric CO2 increases by 1%, it is 1.54% more likely that the National Geographic Magazine will feature climate change issues on its cover for next month.

5. Result - 2

Climate change issues & Time

y: climate change mentionings each year

x: Year

y = -45.4422 + 0.0230 x ;

p-value = 0.006 < 0.05

As time progresses, it is 2.3% more likely that the National Geographic Magazine will feature climate change issues one more time on its cover during next year.

5. Result - 3

Climate change issues & Endangered Species

y: climate change mentionings each year

x: number of endangered species in US

y = 0.6589 - 0.0051 x ;

p-value = 0.067 > 0.05

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When number of endangered species in the US increases by 1 , it’s 0.51% less likely that the National Geographic Magazine will feature another climate change issues on its cover page next year.

5. Result - 4

Environmental (issues) & Endangered Species

y: Environmental issue mentionings each year

x: number of endangered species in US

y = 2.3342 + 0.0173 x ;

p-value = 0.171 > 0.05

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When number of endangered species in the US increases by 1 , it’s 1.7% more likely that the National Geographic Magazine will feature another environmental issue on its cover page next year.

5. Result - 5

Environmental (issues) & Deforestation

y: Environmental issue mentionings each year

x: Annual deforestation in Amazon in sq miles

y = 2.1538 + 0.0002129 x ;

p-value = 0.149 > 0.05

When deforestation in Amazon increases by 1000 square miles , it’s 21% more likely that the National Geographic Magazine will feature another environmental issue on its cover page next year.

6. Existing Bias/Looking Forward

1. Different definitions for what is considered environment related.
2. The difference of units
3. Limited Data
4. Clear definition for categorization

References / Acknowledgements

1. Professor Alonzo
2. Harsh Anand
3. Source:

[1] “See All ‘National Geographic’ Magazine Covers in Timelapse Video,” Hypebeast, Jan. 17, 2018. https://hypebeast.com/2018/1/national-geographic-all-magazine-covers (accessed Oct. 08, 2023).

[2] NASA, “Climate Change Evidence: How Do We Know?,” Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet, Sep. 21, 2018. https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ (accessed Oct. 06, 2023)

[3] R. A. Butler, “What’s the deforestation rate in the Amazon?,” Mongabay, https://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/deforestation-rate.html (accessed Oct. 21, 2023).

[4] U. S. F. and W. Service, “List of Endangered Animal,” Listed+Animals, https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp0/reports/ad-hoc-species-report?kingdom=I&amp;status=SAT&amp;mapstatus=3&amp;fcrithab=on&amp;fstatus=on&amp;fspecrule=on&amp;finvpop=on&amp;fgroup=on&amp;header=Listed%2BAnimals (accessed Oct. 21, 2023).

[5]“Access Data,” climatedata.imf.org. https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/access-data

MI1: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cHZPIl57EYzHqWuAV0WTfEzTLOtfPqZK3QV_jZWmCX8/edit?usp=sharing

MI2: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HWAdjcllrV_OlG0vXwu0Ju1_HyqQt44CszcLylESLyw/edit?usp=sharing