AUTISM:�
WHAT IS HAPPENING,� WHY,� AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?
PROF ROBYN COSFORD
ACIIDS SYDNEY
OCTOBER 2025
THE STAGE:
HOMO ERECTUS
POST HUMANISM
Homo fattus slouchicus
OBESITY
OBESITY
DIABETES 2000
DIABETES 2021
NEUROPSYCHIATRIC DEATHS
AND AUSTRALIA
DISEASE �BURDEN�VS�HEALTH�EXPENDITURE�
INFANT DEATHS GLOBALLY
OECD 18
Trends in US Children’s Mortality, Chronic Conditions, Obesity, Functional Status, and Symptoms�
(Forrest CB, Koenigsberg LJ, Eddy Harvey F, Maltenfort MG, Halfon N. Trends in US Children’s Mortality, Chronic Conditions, Obesity, Functional Status, and Symptoms. JAMA. 2025;334(6):509–516. doi:10.1001/jama.2025.9855)
CHILD HEALTH MORTALITY USA: 2007-2022
CHRONIC DISEASE CHILDREN AGE 3-17: 2011- 2023
CHRONIC DISEASE CHILDREN AGE 3-17
Increased rates
WHICH CONDITIONS?
Asthma rates significantly decreased
Anxiety (highest level of increase)
Autism
Behavioral/conduct problems
Developmental delay
Depression
Speech/language disorder
Vision problems
Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.
TRENDS: FROM 1970s
early 1970s
Childhood mortality rates in US became consistently higher in early 1970s.
2017–2018
According to CDC data, obesity rates among 2- to 19-year-old individuals increased from 5.2% in 1971-1974 to 19.3% by 2017-2018.
1905 and 2008
Sleep duration among US children declined at average annual rate of 1.1 minutes between 1905 and 2008, cf with increased durations of sleep observed in United Kingdom, Scandinavia, and Australia.
1960
Data from NHIS: activity limitations due to chronic condition rose from approximately 2% in 1960 to 8% by 2009.
1990s
Autism prevalence increased markedly from fewer than 3 per 10000 children in 1970 to greater than 30 per 10000 by the 1990s.
CHRONIC CONDITIONS
Overall, child in US in 2023 15% to 20% more likely to have chronic condition compared cf child in 2011.
Annual prevalence rates of 15 chronic conditions for 3to 17-year-old individuals increased from 25.8% to 31.0% (RR, 1.20) for parent-reported data from the NSCH
from 39.9% to 45.7% (RR, 1.15) for 97 chronic conditions for clinician-recorded data from PEDSnet (Figure 3).
WHAT IS AUTISM?
NEURODEVELOPMENTAL DISORDERS:
Disorders of communication
Disorders of behaviour
Disorders of sensory processing
Disorders of cognition
SUBACUTE ENCEPHALITIS
NEUROINFLAMMATION
ASD/ADHD/OCD/TD
. Translational Psychiatry 2019 Nov 26;9:318. doi: 10.1038/s41398-019-0631-2
OVERLAPS: OCD, ADHD, ASD
COMORBIDITIES IN ASD
COMORBIDITIES
1/31 CHILDREN AGED 8 YEARS
ASD prevalence was 32.2 per 1,000 children (one in 31) across the 16 sites,
Range: 9.7 in Texas (Laredo) - 53.1 in California.
ASD 3.4 times as prevalent among boys (49.2) than girls (14.3)
Among 5,292 (61.4% of 8,613) with information on cognitive ability, 39.6% classified as having cognitive impairment
Median age of earliest known ASD diagnosis was 47 months and ranged from 36 months in California to 69.5 months in Texas (Laredo)
2018 vs 2014 BIRTH YEARS
Cumulative incidence of ASD diagnosis or eligibility by age 48 months higher among children born in 2018 (aged 4 years in 2022) than children born in 2014 (aged 8 years in 2022
Overall 1.7 times as high (2018) cf 2014
Range:1.4 - 3.1 times.
Among children aged 4 years, for every 10 children meeting the case definition of ASD, one child suspected ASD.
MULTI- HIT HYPOTHESIS
WHY IS IT HAPPENING?
Any disease process, consider:
PREDISPOSING FACTORS
3. PRENATAL:
PRECIPITATING FACTORS
PRECIPITATING FACTORS
3. NATAL FACTORS:
4. PERINATAL FACTORS
PRECIPITATING FACTORS
5. FIRST 6 MONTHS
PRECIPITATING FACTORS
6. 6MO- 2 YEARS
PRENATAL, PERINATAL, POSTNATAL:
PERPETUATING FACTORS
FOOD CRAVINGS AND FOOD REFUSALS: feed wrong gut bacteria; poor nutrition
GASTROINTESTINAL DYSBIOSIS: ‘acid gut’, fermentation, pain, wind, bloating
IMMUNE DYSREGULATION: recurrent infections, food reactions, allergies
POOR VAGAL TONE: residual Primitive Fear Reflexes, chronic SNS activation and inflammation, dysautonomia, sensory sensitivities
GASTROINTESTINAL DYSMOTILITY: loss vagal tone, chronic constipation
PERPETUATING FACTORS: CYCLE
NEUROINFLAMMATION: macrocephaly, developmental delay
SENSORY PROCESSING DIFFICULTIES; further chronic SNS activation, inflammation
TOXICITY: heavy metals ( vaccines, environmental)
SLEEP DISORDERS
MITOCHONDRIAL DYSFUNCTION: fatigue, neurocognitive issues
FAILURE TO THRIVE/POOR MUSCULOSKELETAL GROWTH
GENETICS
GENOMICS SIGNIFICANT: TWINS
• Siblings of individuals with autism have a prevalence of 2.9% to 3.7%
represents almost a 100-fold increased risk as compared with the general population
• Twin studies have found concordance rates of 36% to 91% between identical twins
Over 2000 gene variants have been identified that are associated with autism on some level ��Many hundreds of pathogenic variants (disease causing) yet only a small percentage of children with ASD have pathogenic variants identified on WGS. ��85 pathogenic SNPs found with a frequency of <1/10,000
ASD SNPS �ARE COMMON
JILL JAMES: �OXIDATIVE STRESS, METHYLATION
SNPS IN AUTISM 2022
CNTNAP2:
MTHFR
OXTR
SLC25A12
SLC19A1
VDR
2023:
BROADER PERSPECTIVE
SHANK-3 SNPS
CCL-2 rs1024611
(Pham MH, Bonello GB, Castiblanco J, et al. The rs1024611 regulatory region polymorphism is associated with CCL2 allelic expression imbalance. PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e49498. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0049498. )
RS1024611 CCL2, NEUROINFLAMMATION
ENVIRONMENT
AIR POLLUTION
AIR POLLUTION
AIR POLLUTION, AUTISM
PM2.5 :INDUSTRY, CHEMICALS, CARS
COAL FIRED POWERPLANTS AND MERCURY
MERCURY, NEUROTOXICITY
mitochondrial dysfunction
ENVIRONMENTAL:�MERCURY AND ALUMINIUM
HUMAN NOEL: WHALE MEAT
MERCURY TOXICITY
can enter the body in one of four entities;
These all differ in their degree of bodily toxicity and neurotoxicity
CORD BLOOD
DEVELOPING FOETAL BRAIN
VULNERABLE MALE BRAIN
Less so:
FEMALES PROTECTED:
(1) greater glutathione availability in females
(2) greater sulphate‑based detoxification capacity in females;
(3) potentiating effects of co‑exposure to neurotoxicants and testosterone;
(4) greater neuroinflammatory response in males;
(5) reduced vulnerability to oxidative stress in females; and
(6) neuroprotective effects of female hormones (estrogen and progesterone), especially in the reduction of inflammation and oxidative stress.
NEURODEVELOPMENTAL DISORDERS, PRENATAL CHEMICAL EXPOSURE 2014
MATERNAL IMMUNE ACTIVATION, ASD 2015
POSTNATAL EFFECTS
Post natal risk factors
Internet survey 1741
School Lunch Testing Program
School Lunch Testing Program
September 29, 2022
Thirty million genetically modified school meals are served daily in America to our children.
The MAA commissioned testing of 43 school lunch samples shows:
CHILDHOOD VACCINATIONS
VACCINATIONS CDC 1986- 2019
VACCINES OVER TIME: 1967 - 2009
INFECTIOUS DISEASES OVER TIME (USA)
HUMAN DNA IN MMR, HEP A VACINES,�ASD 2015
THIMEROSAL TIMELINE
In July 1999, the CDC, the American Academy of Pediatrics, and vaccine manufacturers agreed that thimerosal should be reduced or eliminated in vaccines (https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/thimerosal/index.html).
According to the CDC, thimerosal was removed from all childhood vaccines, except for multi-dose flu shots, by 2001.
The CDC characterized the removal as strictly a “precautionary measure,” maintaining that there was no evidence that thimerosal posed any danger to babies and children
THIMEROSAL TIMELINE
ADDM
I D �VS �ASD PREVALENCE
VACCINE EXCIPIENTS
BUT HEY, ITS ALL GOOD!
VACCINE EXCIPIENTS
VACCINE EXCIPIENTS
VACCINE EXCIPIENTS
VACCINE EXCIPIENTS
ALUMINIUM LEVELS:
TOXICITY KNOWN
CATCH UP ALUMINIUM
ORAL VS INJECTED TOXICITY
ALUMINIUM IN CHILDHOOD VACCINES
ALUMINIUM, NEUROTOXICITY
�
ALUMINIUM IN AUTISM BRAIN TISSUE:
ALUMINIUM IN AD, MS AND AUTISM
BIOLOGICAL PLAUSIBILITY
BRADFORD – HILL CAUSATION FOR AUTISM
BRADFORD HILL – ALUMINIUM CAUSATIVE
(i) children from countries with the highest ASD prevalence appear to have the highest exposure to Al from vaccines;
(ii) the increase in exposure to Al adjuvants significantly correlates with the increase in ASD prevalence in the United States observed over the last two decades (Pearson r = 0.92, p < 0.0001);
(iii) a significant correlation exists between the amounts of Al administered to preschool children and the current prevalence of ASD in seven Western countries, particularly at 3–4 months of age (Pearson r = 0.89–0.94, p = 0.0018–0.0248).
The application of the Hill's criteria to these data indicates that the correlation between Al in vaccines and ASD may be causal.
RESIDUAL MERCURY…
PARACETAMOL
PARACETAMOL, AUTISM
PARACETAMOL USE
PARACETAMOL HEPATOTOXICITY
PARACETAMOL DETOXIFICATION
PARACETAMOL AND GLUTATHIONE
PARACETAMOL VS ASPIRIN
PARACETAMOL TOXICITY AND �OXIDATIVE STRESS
SELENOPROTEINS:REMINDER:
EXAMPLE SCENARIO
PERPETUATION CYCLE:
METABOLIC AND PHYSIOLOGICAL
MARKERS
OXIDATIVE STRESS, METHYLATION CAPACITY: 2004
JILL JAMES: 2006�OXIDATIVE STRESS, METHYLATION
Folate – methionine-transsulphuration Cycle Disruption
OXIDATIVE STRESS: REVIEW 2022
BIOMARKERS: systematic review 2019
Table 3. Summary of quantitative performance of promising biomarkers.
�
Type | Biomarker | Risk | Accuracy (Sen, Spec) | Prevalence | GOR |
Prenatal biomarker of ASD with ASD risk studied | |||||
Genetic | Karyotype, Down syndrome | 12–42% | | | C |
Immune | Maternal fetal Ab | 12–23% | | | B |
Presymptomatic biomarkers with diagnostic accuracy studied | |||||
Neuroimaging | Functional connectivity | | 97% (82%, 100%) | | C |
| Cortical surface area | | 94% (88%, 95%) | | C |
Diagnostic biomarkers with diagnostic accuracy for ASD reported | |||||
Metabolic | Methylation-redox | | 97% (98%, 96%) | | B |
| Acyl-carnitine and amino acids | | 69% (73%, 63%) | | C |
DNA | Single nucleotide polymorphisms | | 186–56% | | C |
RNA | Human and microbiome RNA | | 85–79% (82–80%, 88–78%) | | C |
Neuroimaging | Brain volume | | 78% (84%, 65%) | | C |
Biomarkers defining subgroups of individuals with ASD with reported prevalence | |||||
Genetic | Karyotype/cytogenetic | | | 3% | B |
| FMR1/fragile X | | | 0.2–2% | B |
| Chromosomal microarray | | | 8–26% | B |
| Whole exome sequencing | | | 9–26% | B |
Neuroimaging | Megalencephaly | | | 15% | C |
Metabolic | Amino acid | | | 17% | C |
| Methylation-redox | | | 98–97% | B |
| ETC by buccal swab | | | 62–64% | B |
| Lactate | | | 27–15% | B |
| Pyruvate | | | 7–20% | B |
| Lactate/pyruvate ratio | | | 28% | C |
| Alanine | | | 2–8% | B |
| Alanine/lysine ratio | | | 16% | C |
| Acyl-carnitine elevations | | | 17% | C |
Immune | FRAA | | | 65–77% | B |
Autonomic | Pupillary light reflex | | | 87–94% | B |
NEUROIMAGING
AUTONOMIC NERVOUS SYSTEM(ANS)�
ANS, ASD: AUTONOMIC HYPERAROUSAL
RETAINED PRIMITIVE FEAR REFLEXES REVIEW 2022
ANS, GUT-BRAIN AXIS
ASD, GUT, ZINC
ANS, GUT MICROBIOME, ASD
ORAL AND GUT DYSBIOSIS IN ASD
ORAL DYSBIOSIS
THE WHITE FOOD DIET
GI FLORA, GUT SYMPTOMS 2011
probably partly due to either
GUT SYMPTOMS, DYSBIOSIS
Autism
Retrospective, multi-center (NSW, VIC, & QLD), comparative study of the faecal microbial flora of Autistic Patients and control subjects in, 2004-2005
Butt H.L.1 Emms T.M.1, Cosford, R.2, Duff, J.3, & Patterson D 4.
Bio21, Molecular Science & Biotechnology Institute, & Bioscreen, University of Melbourne 1;
Northern Beaches Medical Center, Mona Vale, NSW2; Behavioural Neurotherapy Clinic, Doncaster, VIC3;
Secrenase Medical Center, Runaway Bay, QLD4.
PANDAS and the Increased Colonization of Faecal Streptococcus in Patients with Autism
Northern Beaches Care Centre, Narrabeen, School of Biological Sciences, University of Newcastle. NSW, Australia1.
Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia2.
Bioscreen, Bio21, Institute of Biotechnology and Molecular Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia3.
Cosford R1 , McGregor NR2 , Butt HL3
(Cosford, 2013 unpublished data)
Method
(Cosford, 2013)
PANDAS and the Increased Colonization of Faecal Streptococcus in Patients with Autism
Northern Beaches Care Centre, Narrabeen, School of Biological Sciences, University of Newcastle. NSW, Australia1.
Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia2.
Bioscreen, Bio21, Institute of Biotechnology and Molecular Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia3.
Cosford R1 , McGregor NR2 , Butt HL3
Cosford, 2013 ( Sydney) unpublished data)
| Autism (n=39) | Control (n=37) | p |
Anti-DNase B (units/mL) | 362±180 | 88±22 | <0.001 |
% distribution of Streptococcus | 43.6% | 8.6% | <0.02 |
PANDAS and the Increased Colonization of Faecal Streptococcus in Patients with Autism
Northern Beaches Care Centre, Narrabeen, School of Biological Sciences, University of Newcastle. NSW, Australia1.
Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry & Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia2.
Bioscreen, Bio21, Institute of Biotechnology and Molecular Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia3.
Cosford R1 , McGregor NR2 , Butt HL3
Cosford, 2013 ( Sydney) unpublished data)
Streptococcus & anti-DNase B
Anti-Dnase B | Streptococcus counts >1x105 cfu/mL | |
| increased | decreased |
Negative (n=13) | 4 | 9 |
Positive (n=14) | 12 | 2 |
Negative = < 170 units/mL Positive = > 170 units /mL
(Cosford, 2013)
GUT-BRAIN, B6
B6, B9, B12: METHYLATION, TRANSSULPHURATION
IMMUNE:�CEREBRAL FOLATE DEFICIENCY
SLC19A1, FRAA
ASD, MAGNESIUM,ZINC MINERALS
ZINC IN ASD: REVIEW
ZINC FUNCTION
ZINC IN BRAIN-�SHANK 3
NEUROINFLAMMATION:
NSE
critical step for ATP production and neuronal
metabolism
NSE
CLINICALLY
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA
Phenotypical
INVESTIGATIONS
INTERVENTIONS
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
LIFESTYLE
DIET
BOVINE MILK
Ramaekers VT, Rothenberg SP, Sequeira JM, Opladen T, Blau N, Quadros EV, Selhub J.
Autoantibodies to folate receptors in the cerebral folate deficiency syndrome. N Engl J Med
(2005) 352:1985–1991.
Cusick MF, Libbey JE, Fujinami RS. Molecular mimicry as a mechanism of autoimmune
disease. Clin Rev Allergy Immunol (2012) 42:102–111.
FOLATE INTO THE BRAIN:
1.pharmacologic doses of 5-formyltetrahydrofolate (folinic acid), converts in vivo to physiologically active 5MTHF,enters the cerebrospinal fluid by way of the RFC on choroid epithelial cells.
2.displacement of blocking AA to FR by high level of 5MTHF (approximately 2 μM or greater).
3.diffusion, when plasma level of 5MTHF is very high.
Me-B12, �FOLINIC ACID
ZINC DYSREGULATION,�SUPPLEMENTATION
‘PYRROLURIA’: MAUVE FACTOR�WOODY MCGINNIS 2008
HB METABOLISM
PYRROLES, OXIDATIVE STRESS 2023
OXIDATIVE DAMAGE
In theory, pyrroles like HPL could reflect oxidative stress, as heme degradation under ROS may produce such compounds
HPL’s specificity as a marker is poor
not reliable markers of oxidative stress due to methodological flaws and weak clinical correlations
More validated markers like malondialdehyde, F2-isoprostanes, or 8-OHdG are preferred
SULPHUR, SELENOPROTEINS
VITAMIN A �(COD LIVER OIL), 2000
BASELINE
THANKYOU!
PROFESSOR ROBYN COSFORD
REVAYALIFE.COM