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Thursday, June 17, 2021

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Welcome!

Matt Caffrey / Senior Director, Grassroots Community Organizing

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Welcome! Where are

you joining from?

Use the chat to introduce yourselves!

Please include your name, pronouns, group, and city.

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REMINDER:

This call is off the record �& closed to the press

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Swing Left �Community �Agreements

Our goal is to create and foster �a safe, inclusive, and equitable environment for our volunteers, �the greater Swing Left community, and the voters we contact. ��Please keep these agreements in mind when approaching your work today.

Organize to elect Democrats chosen by their community.
Focus on inclusivity and respect.
Build a sustainable and a strong progressive movement.
Approach our work with humility.
Respect each other’s time and resources.

Swing Left Community Agreements

Our goal is to create and foster a safe, inclusive, and equitable environment for our volunteers and greater Swing Left community. These guidelines help us hold ourselves and each other accountable to ensure that together, we build the best community that supports our work and our mission.

Organize to elect Democrats. We focus on flipping seats from red to blue and winning Democratic majorities to help bring about progressive change. We organize and fundraise year-round to give eventual Democratic nominees critical support in their general election campaigns.
Focus on inclusivity and respect. We work to show respect and inclusivity in our actions and organizing. Both in-person and online, we use welcoming and inclusive language, model empathy, and empower each other to do our best work. We speak up, hold ourselves accountable, and work to address racism, sexism, homophobia, misogyny, transphobia, ableism, ageism, and all forms of discrimination.
Build a sustainable and strong progressive movement. We work within the progressive movement to create change and fight injustice. We support partners and allied groups whenever possible.
Approach our work with humility. We are all learning, and we follow the lead set by local leaders and communities. We openly accept feedback, and proactively work to unlearn our own biases and assumptions.
Respect each other’s time and resources. As an organization, Swing Left helps volunteers find the most impactful actions to take to help Democrats win the most important elections—in 2020, that means defeating Trump and the GOP this November.

Please report examples of abusive behavior, harassment, or other unacceptable conduct to community@swingleft.org, and a member of our staff will review and respond promptly.

By hosting or attending a Swing Left event, I agree to these guidelines.

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Zoom �Tips

Mute�To make sure everyone can hear today’s call, we’ll keep you muted today until you’ve been recognized.

Chat�Use the Chat function for questions or comments — look for it at the bottom of your Zoom window.

Got questions? �Type them in to the Chat and we’ll capture them for the Q & A.

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Agenda

Welcome
National Updates
National Strategy Update | Resistance to Persistence
Panel: Summer Engagement
Next Steps

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National Updates

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Virginia 2021 Elections

swingleft.org/virginia

The Democratic primary was on June 8
We are now supporting 10 candidates for House of Delegates and Democratic nominee for Governor, Terry McAuliffe
Adopt a district (see current adoptions) and we’ll connect you to the campaign - get to know the candidate
Host phone banks or canvasses for a Swing Left supported candidates for House of Delegates or Terry McAuliffe
Virginia will continue to be our primary focus through November

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Candidates for Virginia House of Delegates

Northern Virginia region:

Del. Gooditis (VA-HD-10)
Del. Cole (VA-HD-28)
Del. Guzman (VA-HD-31)

Richmond region:

Debra Gardner (VA-HD-27)
Katie Sponsler (VA-HD-66)

Southern Virginia region:

Del. Hurst (VA-HD-12)
Del. Tyler (VA-HD-75)

Virginia Beach region:

Del. Guy (VA-HD-83)
Kim Melnyk (VA-HD-84)
Del. Askew (VA-HD-85)

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Candidate for Governor of Virginia

Terry McAuliffe (Governor of Virginia from 2014 - 2018)
This is the first time Swing Left has supported a Gubernatorial candidate
Up 4% according to a recent poll - this race could be close!
Swing Left is evaluating more gubernatorial races across the country to potentially target in 2022
Facing off against GOP nominee and former private-equity firm CEO, Glenn Youngkin

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In-person events

With COVID-19 rates dropping and vaccination rates increasing throughout the country, we’ve developed a three-question test that can serve as a tool to help volunteers decide how and when to choose to host and/or participate in particular in-person tactics:

Does this activity comply with all local, state, and federal guidance?
Am I comfortable engaging in this activity?
Are all others who will be part of this activity comfortable engaging in it?

Additional guidance, including suggestions for hosts, at swingleft.org/covid-guidance

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Action & Advisory Teams

Action Teams are recruiting groups within their state to work with Swing Left and building cultural competency and connection for out of state groups
Advisory Teams are providing valued input to Swing Left staff on Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion; Mobilization; Rural Organizing; and Tech & Product
We will share monthly report-outs from each state Action Team in the follow up email
You can still join a team - email your Regional Organizing Coordinator or Youth Organizing Board Member to be added to the meetings

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Preview: Immediate Impact Team

We’re launching a new, national distributed volunteer community called the Immediate Impact Team
It will be based in our existing Slack workspace - so don’t be surprised if you see changes and more activity there over the next few weeks
This is a new way for potential volunteers to engage with Swing Left
It doesn’t replace groups and in fact, we’ll encourage IIT members to join a local group
This is part of our plan to expand and diversify our volunteer base

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Other updates

Vote Forward

Virginia letters will be available on June 24

NM-01 Election

Melanie Ann Stansbury (D): 79,625 (60.3%) beat Mark Moores (R): 47,071 (35.7%)
Improved upon Sec. Haaland's and President Biden’s margins in 2020 - very encouraging!

Relational Organizing

Held a training on Wednesday, June 9th
You can sign up to host a friend bank event and contact your network in Reach anytime

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National Strategy Update | Resistance to Persistence

Ryan Quinn / Swing Left’s Campaigns Director

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The Scale of the Threat is Staggering

147 Members of Congress voted to invalidate the results and fomented an attack against the Capitol�
Republicans at the state level have perpetuated the Big Lie to further restrict access to the ballot and maintain a system of minority rule

This includes key swing states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas�

The GOP has only come more firmly under the grip of Trump since his second impeachment trial; the authoritarian turn of the party is now a feature, not a bug

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The 2022 Map

What does this strategy look like in practice?

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U.S. Senate

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Where are 2022’s most competitive Senate races?�

In recent years, due to increased partisan polarization, Senate electoral outcomes have become to more closely resemble presidential outcomes�
This makes the field of what is “winnable” fairly clear going into even the earliest stages of the cycle

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Tier 1 Senate Races

State	Incumbent	2020 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 U.S. Senate Democratic Margin
Arizona	Sen. Mark Kelly (D)	+0.3%	-3.5%	-12.9%
Georgia	Sen. Raphael Warnock (D)	+0.2%	-5.1%	-13.8%
North Carolina	Open Seat (R)	-1.3%	-3.7%	-5.7%
Pennsylvania	Open Seat (R)	+1.2%	-0.7%	-1.5%
Wisconsin	Sen. Ron Johnson (R)	+0.6%	-0.8%	-3.4%

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Tier 2 Senate Races

State	Incumbent	2020 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 U.S. Senate Democratic Margin
Florida	Sen. Marco Rubio (R)	-3.4%	-1.2%	-7.7%
New Hampshire	Sen. Maggie Hassan (D)	+7.3%	+0.4%	+0.2%
Nevada	Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)	+2.4%	+2.4%	+2.4%
Ohio	Open Seat (R)	-8.0%	-8.1%	-20.8%

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Governors

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Where are 2022’s most competitive gubernatorial races?�

Gubernatorial races are more difficult to predict by baseline partisanship than federal races and more dependent on individual candidates�
However, certain purple states demonstrate remarkably consistent cycle-to-cycle competitiveness

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Gubernatorial Races to Watch in Tier 1

State	Incumbent	2020 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 Presidential Democratic Margin	Last Gubernatorial Democratic Margin
Florida	Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)	-3.4%	-1.2%	-0.4%
Georgia	Gov. Brian Kemp (R)	+0.2%	-5.1%	-1.4%
Wisconsin	Gov. Tony Evers (D)	+0.6%	-0.8%	+1.1%

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Gubernatorial Races to Watch in Tier 2

State	Incumbent	2020 Presidential Democratic Margin	2016 Presidential Democratic Margin	Last Gubernatorial Democratic Margin
Arizona	Open Seat (R)	+0.3%	-3.5%	-14.2%
Iowa	Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)	-8.2%	-9.4%	-24.4%
Michigan	Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)	+2.8%	-0.2%	+9.6%
Ohio	Gov. Mike DeWine (R)	-8.0%	-8.1%	-3.7%
Pennsylvania	Open Seat (D)	+1.2%	-0.7%	+17.1%

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U.S. House

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Our Congressional program is primarily focused on 4 kinds of regions

Clusters of potential targets in relatively high-density suburban regions�
Clusters of potential targets in relatively low-density exurban/semi-rural regions�
Target districts unlikely to be significantly affected by redistricting�
“High variance” regions that are subject completely to redistricting outcomes, yielding dramatically different target outcomes

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“Priority” States Where We Anticipate at Least 1 Congressional Target
Arizona (2-4 target districts)	Iowa (1-3 target districts)	New Hampshire (1 target district)	Texas (1-10 target districts)
California (6-8 target districts)	Maine (1 target district)	New Jersey (3-5 target districts)	Virginia (1-3 target districts)
Colorado (2-4 target districts)	Michigan (2-3 target districts)	New York (4-7 target districts)	Washington (1-2 target districts)
Florida (2-4 target districts)	Minnesota (1-2 target districts)	Oregon (1-3 target districts)	Wisconsin (1-2 target districts)
Illinois (2-4 target districts)	Nevada (1-2 target districts)	Pennsylvania (3-6 target districts)

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“Suburban” Regions	Potential Target Districts	Potential Target Districts	Districts to Watch
Greater Los Angeles, CA	5-6 seats	CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49	CA-42
North Jersey	2-3 seats	NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11
Long Island, NY	1-3 seats	NY-01, NY-02	NY-03
South Florida	1-3 seats	FL-26, FL-27	FL-18
Clark County, NV	1-2 seats	NV-03, NV-04
Northeast Illinois	1-2 seats	IL-06, IL-14
South Jersey	1-2 seats	NJ-02, NJ-03
Maricopa County, AZ	1-2 seats	AZ-06	AZ-09

“Exurban/Semi-Rural” Regions	Potential Target Districts	Potential Target Districts	Districts to Watch
Mid Michigan	2-3 seats	MI-08, MI-11	MI-09
Northeast Pennsylvania	2 seats	PA-07, PA-08
Western Arizona	1-2 seats	AZ-01, AZ-02
Central Valley, CA	1-2 seats	CA-10, CA-21
Greater Syracuse, NY	1-2 seats	NY-22, NY-24
Rio Grande Valley, TX	1-3 seats	TX-15	TX-28, TX-34

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“High Variance” Regions	Potential Target Districts	Potential Target Districts	Districts to Watch
Greater Houston, TX	0-4 seats	TX-07, TX-22, TX-NEW	TX-02
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX	0-3 seats	TX-24, TX-32	TX-06
Orlando, FL	0-2 seats	FL-07, FL-09
Southeast of Portland, OR	0-2 seats	OR-05, OR-NEW
Northwest Collar Counties, PA	0-2 seats	PA-04, PA-06
Central Virginia	0-2 seats	VA-05, VA-07
Eastern Iowa	0-2 seats	IA-01, IA-02
South of Denver/Fort Collins, CO	0-2 seats	CO-NEW	CO-02

Likely Targets in “Standalone” Districts
CO-03	IL-17	IA-03	ME-02
MN-02	NH-01	NM-02	NY-11
OR-04	PA-17	VA-02	WA-08
WI-03

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State Legislatures

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* Percentages listed in parentheses are the percent of the chamber that would need to change hands to flip the chamber

State	State Senate Composition	Seats to Change Hands	State Senate Goal	State House Composition	Seats to Change Hands	State House Goal
Arizona	14D — 16R	+2D (6.7%)	Flip Chamber	29D — 31R	+2D (3.3%)	Flip Chamber
Georgia	22D — 34R	+7D (12.5%)	N/A	77D — 103R	+14D (7.8%)	Gain Ground
Michigan	16D — 22R	+4D (10.5%)	Flip Chamber	52D — 58R	+4D (3.6%)	Flip Chamber
New Hampshire	10D — 14R	+3D (12.5%)	Flip Chamber	187D — 213R	+14D (3.5%)	Flip Chamber
North Carolina	22D — 28R	+4D (8.0%)	Gain Ground	51D — 69R	+10D (8.3%)	Gain Ground
Pennsylvania	21D — 29R	+5D (10%)	Gain Ground	90D — 113R	+12D (5.9%)	Gain Ground
Texas	13D — 18R	+3D (9.7%)	N/A	67D — 83R	+9D (6.0%)	Gain Ground

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Weekend of Action for Virginia

This is our first nationally coordinated action for Virginia and of the 2022 cycle!
Host a phone bank anywhere, organize a canvass meet-up/carpool in or near VA
Recruit new folks, reactivate members
Coordinating with Virginia Democratic Party and House of Delegates campaigns
Resource and event host link(s) will be included in follow-up email
Our goal is 50 events posted by June 30

Saturday, July 10–

Sunday, July 11

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Questions?

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Summer Group Member Engagement

Jennifer Hutz / Regional Organizing Coordinator

Panel:

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Summer Engagement

The summer can be a slow time for organizing - but it also brings opportunities to engage new people and create community among your members. These leaders are planning to make the most of these opportunities this summer.

Grace Singletary, Georgia College Dems
Laurie Woodward García, Broward for Progress

Share in the chat: what actions or programs are you taking this summer to recruit and keep your group engaged?

Next steps: make some specific summer plans to grow and engage your group.

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Next steps

Erica Sagrans / Senior Director, Community

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Virginia 2021 Elections

Continue to take action for Virginia:

Adopt a district
Host a phone bank or carpool to canvass during the Weekend of Action
Write letters starting June 24
Fundraise for the Virginia Fund
Organize a friend bank to recruit people in your group’s network to volunteer for Virginia using Reach

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July Grassroots Leaders Call

Virginia Weekend of Action

Sat & Sun

Jul 10 & 11

Thursday

July 15

National Strategy Update

Thursday

Jun 24

8pm ET / 5pm PT

swingleft.org/june-national-update

Phone bank or canvass

8pm ET / 5pm PT

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2021 Grassroots Leaders Calls

Thu, July 15 �8pm ET / 5pm PT

Thu, August 19

8pm ET / 5pm PT

Thu, November 18�8pm ET / 5pm PT

Thu, December 16

8pm ET / 5pm PT

Thu, September 30 �8pm ET / 5pm PT

Thu, October 21�8pm ET / 5pm PT

swingleft.org/grassroots-leaders-calls

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Thanks!

swingleft.org/leaders