GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
MODELING THE IMPACTS OF 2024 EPA CLEAN CAR
STANDARDS IN LIGHT-DUTY
VEHICLES
PRESENTATION BY SUPRITA CHAKRAVARTHY
MASTER OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
02/08/2024
GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Abstract
The transportation sector, particularly light-duty vehicles (LDVs), significantly contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 2024 Clean Car Standards and California's Advanced Clean Cars III (ACC III) program aim to address these emissions through stringent regulations, promoting electric vehicle adoption, and considering vehicles' lifecycle emissions. These standards evolve from the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and GHG emissions regulations, which have tightened since 1975 to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions from cars and light trucks.
This study models the impacts of the 2024 EPA Clean Car Standards (for model years 2027- 2032 in non- adopting states) and the California ACC III program (for adopting states) on emissions, grid intensity, and co-pollutant benefits. Utilizing an advanced GT-NEMS 2023 simulation model and comprehensive data analysis, to evaluate these standards' effectiveness in reducing GHG emissions and co-pollutants, assess their implications for grid intensity and quantify the resulting co-pollutant benefits.
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Overview
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INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
LIMITATIONS
CONCLUSIONS
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QUESTIONS
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Introduction
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The transportation sector contributes 28% of total U.S. GHG emissions, with light-duty vehicles (LDVs) accounting for nearly 60% of transportation-related emissions.
Pollutants from LDVs have serious health impacts, including increased risks of respiratory conditions and cardiovascular diseases. Long- term exposure to NOx can increase respiratory conditions by 13%, and PM exposure is linked to a 6% increase in mortality rates.
Introduction
EPA's 2024 Clean Car Standards Target a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by model year 2032 compared to 2026 standards, estimating a reduction of approximately 7.2 billion metric tons of CO2
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OTHER IMPACTS
Sources 1. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1019VPM.pdf
Health Benefits:
$13 billion in annual health benefits due to reduced air pollution
Economic Benefits:
$99 billion in annualized net benefits by 2055.
Average consumer savings of
$6,000 per new vehicle over its lifetime.
Background
80% of new car sales market share
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The 2024 Clean Car Standards are an evolution from Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, which was established in 1975.
Transition to modern EPA LDV standards promoting zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) such as battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as an alternative to internal combustion engine (ICEs) vehicles.
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Sources 1. https://energyright.com/2023/07/18/types-of-evs-and-the-ev-alphabet-whats-a-bev-phev-and-hev/ https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/topic/electric-vehicle- trends.html 2. https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-strongest-ever-pollution-standards-cars-position
9.8% of new car sales market share
2% of new car sales market share
8% of new car sales market share
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Background
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Pathway A: 56% of all new car sales by 2032 are BEV, which is further accelerated to 100% by 2050. PHEVs gradually increase to 13% in 2032 and then decrease to 0% by 2050.I
Pathway B: 43% of all new car sales by 2032 are BEV, which is then moderately extrapolated to 75% by 2050. PHEVs rapidly increase to 29% in 2032 and then plateau to 25% by 2050.I
Pathway C: 35% of all new car sales by 2032 are BEV, slower adoption of BEV to 50% by 2050. PHEVs rapidly adopt in this case, reaching 36% by 2032 and then 50% by 2050.
Background
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According to California's ACC III mandate, 100% of new cars, trucks, and SUVs sold must be zero- emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2035.
The mandate specifies annual increases in ZEV sales starting from 2026 to reach the 100% target by 2035.
Under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act, other states can adopt California's stricter ACC III standards.
States adopting California’s ACC III LDV mandates account for 40.2% of LDV vehicle registrations in the U.S.
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Sources 1. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/advanced-clean-cars-program/about.
2. https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/californias-zero-emissions-vehicle-rule-and-its-nationwide-impacts/
GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Methodology
Targets for BEV Penetration:
BEV market share is targeted to increase from 26% in 2027 to 56% by 2032.
Pathway A for 100% BEV Adoption by 2050:
An aggressive ramp-up post-2032, with significant annual increases in BEV market shares and a strategic decline of PHEVs.
Weighted Average for State Adoption:
The analysis incorporates a weighted average approach based on vehicle registration data, applying the mandate uniformly across states based on their adherence to either California's Advanced Clean Cars III (ACC III) standards or the new EPA standards.
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Methodology
Scenario
GT-NEMS 2023 Reference case
CA ZEV + EPA Mandate
Above + Batt. Mat learning
Description
GT-NEMS 2023 reference case
Learning rate for battery production is 16.5% and battery materials learning rate is 0%.
LDV mandate applied to all states starting 2025 based on a weighted average of motor vehicle registrations in states adopting CA ZEV + EPA’s mandates.
Above + Higher battery materials learning rate of 17%
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To evaluate the combined effects of the EPA standards, the GT-NEMS 2023 simulation model was utilized. In particular the Transportation Demand Sector of this model. This advanced model assesses impacts on emissions, grid intensity, and co-pollutant benefits. Three comparative scenarios were analyzed:
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Results
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The impacts were analyzed across three regionalizations and categories: the United States, the Southeastern United States, and Georgia.
For the United States :
Emissions Reductions: 3.4 billion metric tons
CO2 reduction by 2055.
Co-pollutant Benefits: Reductions of -3129 MMT CO2e by 2055, improving public health.
Grid Intensity: Decrease from 26.46 kg CO2/MWh in 2035 to 10.36 kg CO2/MWh by 2055.
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Results
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The impacts were analyzed across three regionalizations and categories: the United States, the Southeastern United States, and Georgia.
For Southeastern United States : Census Division 5 (South Atlantic) + Census Division 6 (East South Central)
Emissions Reductions: 1.2 billion metric tons
CO2 reduction by 2055.
Co-pollutant Benefits: Reductions of -1698 MMT CO2e by 2055, improving public health.
Grid Intensity: Decrease from 0.83 kg CO2/MWh in 2035 to 0.79 kg CO2/MWh by 2055.
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Results
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The impacts were analyzed across three regionalizations and categories: the United States, the Southeastern United States, and Georgia.
For Georgia :
The methodology for estimating Georgia's share of regional fuel consumption and its overall emissions reduction.
This includes the assumption that Georgia's electricity consumption is 51.4% of the SERC-SE subregion and that it consumes 12.5% of the combined non-electricity fuels of the South Atlantic and East South Central census divisions.
Additionally, Georgia's emissions were estimated to be approximately 3% of the total U.S. emissions, providing a localized context for the impact of the LDV mandates.
1. Sources : 1. Brown, M. A., Niraj Palsule, & Hubbs, J. (2024). Anticipating the response of climate solutions to a policy paradigm shift: Case study of the U.S. and the state of Georgia. Energy Strategy Reviews, 53, 101411– 101411. 2. https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2024-03/georgia_psverp.pdf
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Limitations
The 16% reference case for ACC II may underestimate emissions reductions.
Vehicle registration data is only up to 2020, affecting state-level projections.
GT-NEMS 2023 requires a uniform U.S. standard, oversimplifying regional variations.
Assumes a 17% learning rate improvement, which may be overly optimistic.
Focuses on generation emissions, possibly overlooking transmission and distribution losses.
Assumes uniform policy adoption, which may not reflect real-world variability.
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Conclusions
Increase investments in solar, wind, and battery storage technologies to support the growing electricity demand from EVs and achieve the substantial grid intensity reductions projected.
Develop extensive EV charging infrastructure to address range anxiety and facilitate widespread EV adoption, particularly in rural and underserved areas, supporting the projected increases in BEV market share.
Encourage collaborations between public and private sectors to drive innovation in clean energy and transportation technologies, enhancing the realization of emissions reductions and co-pollutant benefits.
4, Adoption of California's ZEV Mandate for Georgia:
Implement California's ZEV mandate in Georgia to accelerate EV adoption and reduce transportation-related emissions, aligning with the significant emissions reduction potential identified for the state.
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Questions/Feedback
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Acknowledgment
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I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Marilyn Brown, Niraj Palsule, Drawdown Georgia, and the Georgia Department of Natural Resources: Environmental Protection Division for their support throughout this project. Their guidance and assistance were invaluable in the process.
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THANK YOU
02/08/2024
PRESENTATION BY SUPRITA CHAKRAVARTHY
MASTER OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT