Challenges to Getting Robust Conclusions from DEE Research
Christina Bremer
School of Computing and Communications, Lancaster University (UK)
29th July 2024
The hypothetical baseline – best ways to deal with counterfactual conditions
To estimate the impact of an ICT service, the digitalized scenario needs to be compared to a hypothetical baseline, a situation which would have occurred without the ICT service.
Use and limitations of case studies – how can they be generalized?
Early case studies of digitalization have often resulted in overly optimistic results for enabling emission reductions. Some studies extrapolate one case study and apply it sector-wide. Some are prone to biases.
Understanding and quantifying rebound effects
Digital services improve efficiency, save time, and decrease transaction costs, all of which are sources for more demand. Impact assessments often ignore such rebound effects.
Aggregation of services - assessing the energy and emissions benefits of digitalization
Multiple digital and non-digital technologies services can reduce emissions from the same activity. This can make it difficult to accurately estimate the reductions and lead to double counting.
Accounting for avoided emissions – who gets credit?
Often several companies and further stakeholders are involved in the development, installation, maintenance, and uptake of a service. It needs to be clear who can take credit for emission reductions and to what extent.
Capturing future systems developments
The net energy and climate effects of digitalization may change over time due to the evolution of both ICT and end use sector technologies, presenting a complex systems modeling challenge.
Support of policies and company actions
To support the environmentally beneficial deployment of digitalization and discourage any adverse uses, assessments need to provide useful insights to understand the extent to which digital technologies have positive or negative effects.
Looking forward to the discussion.
Contact: c.bremer@lancaster.ac.uk