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The Missed Ride: Why Uber Drivers Skip Their First Trip

Analyzing Driver Signups and Predicting Trips

Aldriech Villamor, Crystal Tran, Emily Tanaka, and Rebecca Su

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Objectives

  • Drive Uber’s growth by increasing first trip conversion
    • Identify patterns among drivers who took first trips vs those who did not
    • Predict which drivers will complete first trips
    • Propose solutions

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Data Analysis

  • City, OS, signup channel indicated low pairwise correlation to label (took_trip)

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Do sign up channel and city relate to trip completion?

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When do drivers quit the enrollment process?

  • Adding vehicle occurs after background check

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Which drivers are most likely to complete a trip?

  • Drivers adding vehicles and completing background checks earlier are more likely to compete the trip
  • New features
    • Bgc_delay: background check date – signup date
    • Vehicle_delay: vehicle add date – signup date

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  • Drivers primarily drop out after completing a background check and before adding their vehicle

7,136

40% retained

3,239

45% retained

4,967

40% retained

2,437

49% retained

1,031

38% retained

461

45% retained

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  • New feature
    • Bcg_vehicle_diff: vehicle add date – background check date

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Correlation Matrix

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Random Undersampling

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Feature Selection

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Model Evaluation

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What should Uber do?

Reduce background check delays

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Remind drivers to complete background check and add their vehicle

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Evaluate additional factors preventing first trip

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Ask and analyze why drivers are interested in driving during sign up

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Incentivize completion of faster first trips or engage more drivers via referrals

5

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Thank you for listening!