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Aramis Farias / April 28

Empirical Advantages on Chess Openings

The importance of a good start

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What is a chess opening?

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Among hundreds, which openings to focus the learning?

Problem:

Provide a data-driven approach to scope for openings that empirically offer advantages to the player.

Solution:

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Which openings to learn in chess?

Chess-360 currently offers a conventional approach to openings:

Based on frequency of openings.
Doesn’t prepare for unusual openings to avoid or exploit.
Too conventional, so adversaries are probably also aware.

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Which openings to learn in chess?

Here we present a innovative data-driven approach:

Based on Win-loss ratios of high level players.
Controlled for players skill and game format.
Competitive Edge through unconventional perspective.

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Methodology

Filters

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Game outcomes according to the Opening

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All visualizations available here

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Best Winning rates for White per Opening and Format

All visualizations available here

Blitz (10 min > time >= 3 min):

C22 - 57,1% - Center Game
C61 - 56,5% - Ruy Lopez, Bird's Defense
E32 - 56,2% - Nimzo-Indian, Classical

Bullet (time < 3 min):

A30 - 59,9% - English, Symmetrical
C27 - 56,2% - Vienna Game
D13 - 56,2% - Queen's Gambit Declined Slav, Exchange Variation

Rapid (30 min >= time >= 10 min):

C30 - 61,1% - King's Gambit Declined
C53 - 57,4% - Giuoco Piano
C21 - 57,0% - Center Game

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Best Winning rates for Black per Opening and Format

All visualizations available here

Blitz (10 min > time >= 3 min):

C51 - 55,9% - Evans Gambit
A60 - 55,1% - Benoni Defense
E65 - 54,7% - King's Indian, Fianchetto, Yugoslav

Bullet (time < 3 min):

C46 - 56,5% - Three Knights
A53 - 55,8% - Old Indian
A51 - 55,4% - Budapest Gambit

Rapid (30 min >= time >= 10 min):

B03 - 57,3% - Alekhine's Defense
C20 - 54,9% - King's Pawn Game
C50 - 51,8% - Giuoco Piano

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Predicted Benefit of the openings found

White:

It can be expect a winning chance of around 56,5%(18% increase) for white. This advantage can be translated in a 63 points advantage in ELO rating, or 2 pawns advantage in game material.

Black:

It can be expect a winning chance of around 55,2%(15% increase) for black. This advantage can be translated in a 54 points advantage in ELO rating, or 2 pawns advantage in game material.

Note: The regular probability of victory for even skilled players is 47,7%

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Best Winning rates per Termination

For White:

D13 - 62,5% - Queen's Gambit Declined Slav, Exchange Variation
D32 - 59,4% - Queen's Gambit Declined, Tarrasch
B80 - 56,9% - Sicilian, Scheveningen

For Black:

A42 - 57,3% - Modern Defense, Averbakh System
B09 - 56,3% - Pirc, Austrian Attack
B43 - 55,1% - Sicilian, Kan, 5.Nc3

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Predicted Benefit of seeking time forfeit

White:

It can be expect a winning chance of around 59,6%(25% increase) for white. This advantage can be translated in a 86 points advantage in ELO rating, or 3 pawns advantage in game material.

Black:

It can be expect a winning chance of around 56,2%(17% increase) for black. This advantage can be translated in a 61 points advantage in ELO rating, or 2 pawns advantage in game material.

Note: this would be mainly useful in formats with less time, namely Blitz and Bullet.

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Comparison with the most frequent openings

Top 10 Most Frequent Openings

A00 6,7% - Uncommon Opening
A40 4,6% - Queen's Pawn Game
C00 4,6% - French Defense
B01 4,5% - Scandinavian
D00 3,6% - Queen's Pawn Game
B00 3,3% - Uncommon King's Pawn Opening
C41 3,1% - Philidor Defense
C20 2,8% - King's Pawn Game
B20 2,3% - Sicilian
D02 2,0% - Queen's Pawn Game

Most Frequent Openings

New openings recommended

Only 1 intersection

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Key Findings

New approach

Synergy

Time strategy

The study of the openings found here present opportunities to exploit or avoid, which can increase the winning chance by even 25% against an even skilled player.

The majority of the openings found isn’t portrayed in the conventional study of openings. We suggest a complementary study of both approaches.

Surprisingly, there was consistency in some openings forcing the time forfeit, offering better odds than the usual in Blitz and Bullet games.

This suggest a new strategy to be implemented

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Thank You

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Appendix

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Reference

Jupyter notebook of this analysis: https://www.kaggle.com/aramisfarias/notebook877f373387

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Data Sources

Chess Game Dataset (Lichess) - https://www.kaggle.com/datasnaek/chess

Chess_dataset (100,000 games) Lichess - https://www.kaggle.com/sahit2509/chess-dataset-100000-games-lichess

Chess Games - https://www.kaggle.com/arevel/chess-games

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Supplementary tools used

Elo Win Probability Calculator - https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html

Chess opening names - https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessopening?eco=D02

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