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an introduction to analyzing trends

LECTURE

AnalyzingTrends.com

ANALYZING TRENDS | TIM STOCK

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the value

of futures.

who determines what the future will be?
when is future knowledge most valuable?
how can design dictate unintended futures?
how can we better apply foresight to design?

ANALYZING TRENDS | TIM STOCK

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now

Culture

future

past

what happened?

what will happen?

what is happening?

our understanding of past, present and future is relative to our experience.

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now

Culture

future

past

assess existing information

redirect existing resources

cultivate intelligence to

avert obsolescence

hindsight

foresight

insight

applying perspectives on time requires an understanding of how meaning is cultivated and affirmed

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Weather

can I go outside?

how will this impact investments?

now

future

past

is it worse than last year?

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Climate Change

San Francisco September 2020

Photograph: Stephen Lam/Reuters

now

future

past

can I go outside?

how will this impact investments?

is it worse than last year?

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future forecast cone (Voros)

What might happen if we make adjustments?

What do we need to happen?

What could happen?

What is likely to happen?

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

LESS KNOWN

MORE KNOWN

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how can we develop new service frameworks?

how will COVID-19 continue to impact the way people shop globally?

probable

preferable

possible

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

more known

less known

time

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how can we anticipate policy protections?

how does touchless and cashless retail change other aspects of the social and economic order?

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

more known

less known

time

probable

preferable

possible

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how can we develop ethical technological frameworks?

facial-recognition software fails to correctly identify people '96% of the time

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

time

more known

less known

probable

preferable

possible

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how can we anticipate design dissent?

designers must read social signals to design beyond the technology and design for emerging opposition

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

more known

less known

time

probable

preferable

possible

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how should we design technology into daily life?

is the technological capability driving the interaction or the human need?

Amazon Echo, Remember Baby (2018)

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

more known

less known

time

probable

preferable

possible

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should people be allowed to kick robots?

the social emotional relationship with technology should be reflected in how we design new technologies

LESS ACTION

MORE ACTION

more known

less known

time

probable

preferable

possible

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Ex Machina (2014)

science fiction acts as a social warning system

Her (2013)

Blade Runner 2049 (2017)

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minority report and framing possible futures

In 1999 Spielberg was preparing to turn Philip K. Dick’s short story “The Minority Report” into a $100 million action movie starring Tom Cruise. There was just one problem: The story was set in the undated future, and the director had no idea what that future should look like.

Minority Report (2002)

probable

possible

preferable

predictive law enforcement

gestural interfaces

autonomous cars

personalized retail

holographic interfaces

biophilic design

What could happen?

How do we stop this?

The existing trajectory of design

time

patents

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Stealth Fashion

speculative design addresses big societal issues with design processes and systems

AttentiveU Glasses (MIT LAB)

Hushme

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our abstract relationship with design ux requires forecasts to study the meaning of objects

probable

possible

preferable

ritual

use

variability

ethics

externalities

time

agency

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“humans become the sex organs of the machine world”

- Marshall McLuhan

Black Mirror - Nosedive (2016)

probable

possible

preferable

influence

connected

variability

ethics

externalities

purpose

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privacy is a

design abstraction

probable

possible

preferable

policy regulations

personal privacy

variability

ethics

externalities

time

transparency

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sustainability is a design abstraction

probable

possible

preferable

extreme weather

weather

variability

ethics

externalities

time

resource reallocation

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work is a design abstraction

probable

possible

preferable

automation

variability

ethics

externalities

time

new skills

education

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could you prove you are human?

probable

possible

preferable

new skills

automation

Blade Runner 2049 (2017)

variability

ethics

externalities

time

education

ANALYZING TRENDS | TIM STOCK

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the value

of futures.

who determines what the future will be?
when is future knowledge most valuable?
how can design dictate unintended futures?
how can we better apply foresight to design?

ANALYZING TRENDS | TIM STOCK

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thinking like a futurist.

Learn to read signals earlier
Learn to classify these signals
Direct the information you analyze towards action

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stockt@newschool.edu

AnalyzingTrends.com

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