Democracy in Scotland and the UK

Factors that influence voting behaviour

• The 2019 UK election resulted in the Conservatives winning 365 seats out of 650
• This means that the Conservatives won an 80-seat overall majority over the opposition parties

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• The election was often dubbed “The Brexit Election”, although many other factors lie beneath the results
• In the run-up to the election, there was much discussion about “Workington Man”
• The belief was that Workington Man was the voter parties needed to win over to win the election

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• The results of the election were particularly bad for Labour who suffered their worst result since 1935
• Labour’s so-called ‘Red Wall’ crumbled due to Brexit

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Watch a 5 News clip about ‘Workington Man’

Watch a Sky News clip asking Labour voters why they switched in the 2019 UK election

Watch a Sky News report on “Why did Labour's red wall turn blue?” in the 2019 UK election

Watch a clip from The Guardian explaining the 2019 election

Age

• Young people are considered to be more left-wing
• The British Election Study of the 2019 UK election concluded that, “older people were much more likely to vote Conservative and younger people were much more likely to vote Labour”
• YouGov polling found that 56% of 18-24 years olds voted Labour in the 2019 UK election, compared to 67% of those 70+ voting Conservative.
• The age at which a voter, on average, switches from Labour to Conservative is 39, according to YouGov

However…

What changes in peoples’ lives as they age?

As people age, their economic situation generally improved, and with it their class changes, suggesting class might be more significant as a cause of voting behaviour.

Class

• Traditionally, the working class voted Labour while the middle and upper classed voted Conservative.
• Lord Ashcroft Polls analysis of the 2019 election found that, “The Conservatives won among all socio-economic groups by margins of between 6 points (DEs) and 20 points (C2s).”
• YouGov analysis of the 2019 election shows that 43% of those ABC1 voted Conservative and 33% voted Labour. 48% of C2DE voted Conservative and 33% voted Labour.

However…

The Tories won poorer voters in 2019. Why?

In 2019, many lower class voters backed the Conservatives because they believed in the ‘Get Brexit Done’ message of the Tories. This suggests issue-based voting might be more significant as a cause of voting behaviour.

Issues

• The Conservative Party slogan during the 2019 election was “Get Brexit Done”
• Boris was promoting himself as the Prime Minister who would simply get on with delivering Brexit
• The Conservatives managed to secure the votes of around 74% of Leave voters in 2019
• Labour’s mixed message on Brexit led to a collapse in their ‘red wall’ in the north of England where Brexit was backed
• 33% of Labour Leave voters backed the Tories in 2019

However…

What/ who do you think national media focuses on in elections?

The media can promote issues so that they are in the minds of voters. Journalists can also regularly ask politicians about their promises on a topic, suggesting media might be a more significant cause of voting behaviour.

Media

• The media highlights important issues, with journalists expected to ask politicians difficult questions in order to establish their policies and hold them accountable for their decisions
• Media can include: Internet, newspapers, radio, and television
• TV political news, by law, must be neutral, and is banned from reporting the election on Election Day (until 10pm)
• In the 2019 UK election, the first TV election debate on ITV attracted 7 million viewers
• Oxford University research found that the BBC was the most common news website used by voters in the 2019 UK election
• According to the Electoral Commission, the Conservatives spent over £1million for advertising on Facebook in the run-up to the 2019 UK general election
• The BBC is regulated by a Royal Charter which explicitly demands they are politically neutral

• Aside from TV and the internet, there is also the so-called ‘traditional’ media
• ‘Traditional’ media is often referred to as the print press, meaning newspapers
• Unlike TV news, newspapers are allowed to back political parties, and can publish editorials to encourage readers to vote a certain way
• Most newspapers backed the Conservatives in 2019, and urged their readers to vote accordingly
• Only The Guardian and The Daily Mirror endorsed the Labour Party in the 2019 UK election
• Research from Loughborough University found Labour suffered “very high levels of negative press” every week of the election campaign

However…

What/ who do you think national media focuses on in elections?

National media tends to focus on the leaders of the parties, therefore suggesting that the image of the party leaders is more significant as a cause of voting behaviour.

Party leaders

• The leadership of parties is important as the leader of the party with the most MPs is invited by the Monarch to form a government
• A strong leader can win an election, a weak leader can lose an election
• Ipsos MORI found that 43% of voters felt Johnson would have made the best Prime Minister the day before the 2019 UK election
• Only 29% of voters said the same of Corbyn
• Corbyn’s weak image meant that Labour lost significant support
• 35% of Labour voters in 2017 said they didn’t vote Labour in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn

Channel 4 News

Your Teacher will now play you a 45-minute-long extended news bulletin from Channel 4 News. The report covers the factors of voting behaviour behind the 2019 UK election. As you watch the documentary, fill in the gaps on the sheet given to you.

Find the news report on YouTube, here

Find the handout on SharePoint, here