KW SPECIAL EDITION
Rick J. Klein
kleinrickj@msn.com
Park City Real Estate
Q3 2025
Another Solid Quarter
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
National Real Estate News
“A Tale of Two Markets”
National Economic Impacts
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801 558 5626
Bearish
National
Billionaire Jeff Greene predicts house prices will soar once rates fall — and warns the US faces a ‘downward spiral’” (7/2025) https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-greene-house-prices-interest-rates-immigration-debt-trump-economy-2025-7
“Market Conditions Are Improving For Homebuyers” as of September 2025, pending home-sales are inching up and listings are rising. (7/2025) https://www.investopedia.com/improving-market-conditions-for-homebuyers-11799700
Average long-term US mortgage rate drops to 6.19%, lowest level in more than a year. AP (10/23/25) https://apnews.com/article/mortgage-rates-housing-interest-financing-home-6dfe7db9f54eeee330cb8b669cab60ac
“U.S. home-builder sentiment vaults to 6-month high in October” https://www.reuters.com/business/us-homebuilder-sentiment-vaults-6-month-high-october-2025-10-16/
The housing market’s fall surprise: Buyers are back, and Zillow says the momentum isn’t over yet (10/26/25) https://fortune.com/2025/10/26/housing-market-fall-surprise-buyers-back-zillow-predicts-momentum/
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Bullish
National
America’s housing Market is shuddering (8/25) U.S., home-prices have drifted lower in the first half of the year and many cities show recent quarterly declines (The Economist 7/2025) https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/10/americas-housing-market-is-shuddering
“U.S. economy braces for twin housing, labor market headwinds” (9/15/25) The U.S. housing market is showing strain just as the labor market appears to be deteriorating — two negative forces that threaten economic stability. Reuters.com/markets/us/us-economy-braces-twin-housing-labor-market-headwinds-2025-09-15/
Housing: 3 Reasons It Gets Much Worse From Here (9/20205) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4822998-housing-3-reasons-it-gets-much-worse-from-here
Roughly half of U.S. states are effectively in a recession and ‘hanging on by their fingertips,’ Moody’s chief economist says (10/9/25) https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/. (note- Utah is one of the expansion states..:)
“Home sellers have a ‘tough pill to swallow’ this fall, real-estate agents warn”. (10/23/25) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-sellers-have-a-tough-pill-to-swallow-this-fall-real-estate-agents-warn-a8f79825
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
CPI: Inflation remains sticky
Source: Bureau of Labor (10/24/25)
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801 558 5626
Unemployment Rising
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801 558 5626
Consumer Confidence
Conference Board
Consumer confidence declined
again in September to 94.2 (1985 = 100)
to the lowest level since April
As of 9/30/25
Present Situation index registered
its biggest drop in a year.
Expectation Index below the threshold of
80 typically signals a recession,
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan
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801 558 5626
Interest Rates
Both graphs show similar inverse correlation between rates and number of sales.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Cash Sales
% Cash Sales
Condo: 53%
SFR: 55%
VL: 86%
NAR: 30%
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801 558 5626
Cash Sales
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Demand
Pended and Closed Transactions
Demand
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Pended Sales
NAR announced (929/24) the pended home sales index rose 4.0% in August from the prior month and has increased 3.8% the past year. The West had a 5% increase last month and YOY increase of 0.2%.
"Lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions."
September was not our best month for pended sales. GPC fell 18% from August and 10% from last year. However, in August GPC was up 15% MOM and 23% YOY.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Pending Sales
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Pended Sales
A few years snapshot before
and after Covid; September
down 10% from last September.
Demand: Pended Sales
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Pended Sales
Q3 2025 to Q3 2024 > 6%
Q3 2025 to Q32024 > 11%
Q3to “normal” < 3%
normal
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Pended Sales
First three quarters of 2025 reflect
the average for “normal” years
(prior to and after Covid).
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Normal
2025 to 2024 >1.2%
2025 to 2023 > 24%
Q3 to “normal” spot on
Demand: Pended Sales
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
NAR announced (10/10/25) the existing home sales rose 1.5% in September to SAAR of 4.06M over August and is 4.1% higher than last year.
According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, "As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales."
The GPC existing sales fell 5% over August but is 5% higher than last September. Compared to last year, Condo sales are down 15%, SF up 57%, and VL sales down 11%.
Demand: Existing Sales
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Existing Sales
As with pended sales,
GPC bouncing back faster then national stats
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Existing Sales
Closed transactions in September were 9% higher than September 2024 and similar to September 2023.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
2025 to 2024 > 6.8%
2025 to 2023 > 6.5%
Green dotted line is the “normal range”
Demand: Existing Sales
In Perspective:
50%
35%
15%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Existing Sales
Dotted lines avg. # of sales
between 2013 and 2019
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Volume
35%
56%
9%
2025 to 2024 < 0.6%
2025 to 2023 > 11%
2025 to normal < 5%
Blew past the prior record
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand: Existing Sales
# of Sales are similar
to level of sales in 2002.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
NAR reported (10/23/2025) Total housing inventory at the end of September was 1.55M units, up 14% from last year. Unsold inventory sits at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.2 months last year.
"Inventory is matching a five-year high, though it remains below pre-COVID levels," Yun added. "Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth."
GPC inventory also rose. Since last year inventory increased 4% with inventory in condos rising 24%; SFR flat, and VL down 11%.
Supply: Inventory
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
There were 922 listing as of 10/1/25 compared to 884 as of 10/1/24 a 4% increase over last year.
Supply: Inventory
Compared to a year go Condos up 24%
Single Family same
Vacant Land down 12%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply: Inventory
Q3 is the first time since 2000,
Inventory exceeded 1,000 units
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply: Inventory
As of 10/25 AR: 5.5 months
Normal AR 2013 - 2019: 7.2 months
AR for Q3 2025 is 5.7 months
NAR reports AR 4.5
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply/Demand
Absorption Rate by Area/Price
as of 9/2025
Compiled by Rick Klein
Areas 1- 9 (In Town)
Condo | <$2,150,000 | >$2,150,000 | CDOM* |
4.3 months | 5.5 months | 3.1 months | 19days |
| | | |
Single Family | <$4,075,000 | >$4,075,000 | CDOM |
7.1 months | 6.6 months | 7.6 months | 43 days |
*CDOM is the median CDOM for existing properties only
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply/Demand
Areas 10 - 29 (Basin & Jordanelle)
Condo | <$1,174,000 | >$1,174,000 | CDOM |
6.1 months | 6.7 months | 5.6 months | 59 days |
| | | |
Single Family | <$2,830,000 | >$2,830,000 | CDOM |
6.6 months | 4.7 months | 8.6 months | 57 days |
Absorption Rate by Area/Price
as of 9/2025
Compiled by Rick Klein
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Supply/Demand
Areas 31 - 38 (Heber Valley )
Single Family | <$1,080,000 | >$1,080,000 | CDOM |
7.9 months | 5.5 months | 10.3 months | 56 days |
| | | |
| | | |
Single Family | <$1,091,950 | >$1,091,950 | CDOM |
12.1 months | 8.2 months | 16.1 months | 73days |
Absorption Rate by Area/Price
as of 9/2025
Compiled by Rick Klein
Areas 31 - 38 (Kamas Valley )
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801 558 5626
Supply/Demand
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801 558 5626
Pricing
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
CoreLogic S & P Case Shiller reported (9/30/2025) YOY home price witnessed a 2.7% annual gain as of April down from 3.4% the previous month.“The housing market continued its gradual deceleration in April, with annual price gains slowing to their most modest pace in nearly two years,” said Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “We're witnessing a housing market in transition,” Godec concluded. “The era of broad-based, rapid price appreciation appears over, replaced by a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national trends.”
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Monthly HPI as of August 2025
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
CoreLogic S & P Case Shiller reported (9/30/2025) YOY home price witnessed a 2.7% annual gain as of April down from 3.4% the previous month.
FHFA reported (10/28/2025) monthly housing prices rose 0.4% in August 2024 and rose at an annual rate of 2.3%. The previously reported 0.1 percent price decline in July was revised to 0.0 percent. For the nine division price changes ranged from -0.6% in the Pacific division to 6.3% in the Middle Atlantic division.
.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Quarterly HPI as of Q2 2025
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
CoreLogic S & P Case Shiller reported (9/30/2025) YOY home price witnessed a 2.7% annual gain as of April down from 3.4% the previous month.
FHFA reported (10/28/2025) monthly housing prices rose 0.4% in August 2024 and rose at an annual rate of 2.3%.
NAR reported (10/23/2025) home prices were $415,200 up 2.1% from
one year ago. This is the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth."" Yun said.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
CoreLogic S & P Case Shiller reported (9/30/2025) YOY home price witnessed a 2.7% annual gain as of April down from 3.4% the previous month.
FHFA reported (10/28/2025) monthly housing prices rose 0.4% in August 2024 and rose at an annual rate of 2.3%.
NAR reported (10/23/2025) home prices were $415,200 up 2.1% from
one year ago.
GPC Q3 2025 12-month median price for homes and condos was $1,595,000 up a staggering 26% from one year ago. However, if only existing existing properties are included, the 12-month median income increased 6.7%.
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Home Prices
Beware the metrics
Time required for property values to double:
NAR just over 11 year (136 months)
For GPC just over 4 year (51 months)
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices in the long run (since 1/1/2001) have appreciated 7.3% annually (compounded monthly) The red regression line indicates long term trend.
Pricing
Prices tend to revert to the mean
Since trough (01/12) prices up 10.3% annually; Since peak (04/08) prices up 6.8 %
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices
2024 Median Prices compared to
2023 up 11.6%
2022 up 18.9%
2025 Compared to | |||
| Median | Average | # Sales |
2024 | > 26% | > 21% | > 9.6% |
2023 | >33% | > 25% | < 19% |
However, excluding all new construction;
Median prices increased 6.7%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices
2024 Median Prices compared to
2023 up 11.6%
2022 up 18.9%
2025 Compared to | ||
| Median | # Sales |
2024 | >15% | <6% |
2023 | 0% | >15% |
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices
Subprime
Covid
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 42% / 30%
Median price 34% / 30.3%
# of transactions 10% / 15%
New Construction: 22.5%
Median Price New: $5,081,000
Median existing price 22%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 16.3% /19.4%
Median price 7.2% / 20.4%
# of transactions -1.5% / +11.1%
New Construction: 34.4%
Median Price New: $1,636,600
Median Price Existing: -9.8%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 10.8% / 11.9%
Median price 2.9% / 14.1%
# of transactions +21.2% / 35.6%
New Construction: 13.9%
Median Price New : $6,120,820
Median Price Existing: +9.8%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 10.4% / 21.2%
Median price 13.5% / 30.3%
# of transactions 18% / 25.5%
New Construction: 22.5%
Median Price New: $4,100,000
Median Price Existing: 8.7%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 11.8% / 22.3%
Median price 9.6% / 13.2%
# of transactions +9.0% / +55.5%
New Construction: 21% (est)
Median Price New: $1,100,000
Median Price Existing: +15.3%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Prices/Market Segments
Compared to 2024 and 2023
Average price 28.9% / 15.2%
Median price 10.0% / 6.1%
# of transactions -7.1% / 18.2%
New Construction: 24%
Median Price New: $1,201,000
Median Price Existing: 1.2%
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Heber / Kamas
In May, Heber held the lead by ~ $10,000;
In September, Kamas is in the lead ~ $10,000
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Market Snapshot
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626
Demand remains as steady as a chairlift with both pended and closed sales rising slightly for Q3. The GPC area saw a 6.4% year over year increase in overall sales fairing considerably better than the 1.5% nationally. Condos in the basin were down slightly (less than 1%) and lot sales in the basin fell 5%. However, all others areas saw a considerable increase with single family sales rising by ~20% for both Park City and the Basin. Also, while Park City experiences a high percentage of cash buyers, it appears our market is not exempt from the gravitational drag of interest rates.
Similarly, supply continues to inch upward, cautiously like a hiker on the Mid-Mountain Trail. For the overall market, inventory listings increased by 4.3% cresting over1,000 units of inventory in Q3 for the first time in five years. Much of this oxygen in the market came from fresh builds and new product - a welcome sign developers have not ghosted us.
Overall prices continue to rise at a supernatural rate. The median price for existing property in GPC jumped 26% over the past year; the kind of increase that makes appraisers question if they are seeing a poltergeist. Once the influx of new builds is factored in, the increase moderates to a still-heady 6.7%, a far cry from the 2% national increase. The cost of a single family property is staggering: median price in Park City now exceeds $4 million while in the basin the median price is over $2.8 million. We not only live in a bubble, but at a very high altitude.
We live in a paradox: insulated yet influenced by national economics. Market volatility is driven by the media with stories of rate anxiety, affordability fatigue, but improving supply. Given the noise, our crystal ball is lost in escrow while out counterparts debate whether housing is about to sink or soar. But in Park City, no need to fear ghosts unless they are named “Rising Rates” or “Higher HOA fees,” as out makes continues its steady climb somewhere between the lift line and the mountain summit.
Market Summary
Rick J. Klein
801 558 5626