Daily Market Journal

Date:

08.05.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• BTC followed our red path for a while, but so far the thesis of a more aggressive seloff got invalidated, price is still holding up
• Price swept saturdays low, the liquidity area we were looking at the previous days

BTC

• Price:
• Lost the 63-64K range, spent all of today below 63K
• Price took out saturdays low liquidity
• Multiple wicks down below 62K, but there was no H1 close below 62K, showing interim support
• Price formed a head and shoulders pattern on the H1: broke down from it. If it can reclaim and invalidate it that would be a bullish sign
• Price currently being in a bearish downtrend structure on the H1; MSB to the downside, LHs and LLs
• Zoomed out (H4) this could also be forming a higher low; in the process of forming a head and shoulders

• Liquidity levels:
• UP:
• 65540.0 (mondays highs), 67198.9
• DOWN:
• 56505.0 (current local bottom)

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Divergence in price pushing lower, and less and less long liquidations; bottom could be in?
• Spot premium still present, but trending towards 0 = futures more aggressive than spot; lack of strong spot demand

• Liquidation heatmap:
• We can see new areas of long liquidity forming below price, which generally means dip buyers and longs coming in
• If price loses 62K it could unwind easily into the gap towards 60K

BTC ETF

After two decent inflow days, we see an outflow day again.

Not a big one, basically showing a lack of demand with multiple issuers including Blackrock having 0 inflows

Invalidates the idea of Wall Street FOMOing into “cheap” BTC. The inflows were probably just panic sellers buying back, or a couple people betting the bottom being in.

BTC possible paths

1. Retest and reclaim: Blue path: We retest 62K again and hold, we form a higher low and push higher back into the 63-64K range

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• Compression into bands and reclaim: Green path: We compress here into the bands and reclaim the 63-64K area, basically a similar path then the blue one but more of low volatility and chop at the beginning

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• Grabbing the lower high liquidity at 63K, then losing 62K, which could result in price unwinding quick into the low 60s, filling in the gap below

Volume Profile

Looking between last friday and today:

POC at 63650

Range needed to reclaim: 63500 - 64400

As we can see there is no much support below, the buying above 63K is now underwater.

We either reclaim, or we unwind all the way back

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Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• Looking at the structures on ALTs and BTC based on the saturday low levels; as they have been a big liquidity point, and the last point to hold if bullish
• BTC dipped just a bit below it, as ALTs dipped deeper and more aggressive.
• No big out- or down performance, structures moving broadly together
• BTC D sideways day

Stocks, Macro

• Gold chopping around the H4 bands, if this is a bullish compression the breakout at 2327 could be the beginning of some upside potential. If we close a 4H candle below todays low (2303), probably we revisit the lows again or even go lower

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• Dollar flipped H4 bands to green again. We could see a retest of the 200EMA on the H4, confirming a higher low and maybe a local bottom being in.

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• S&P and NDQ kind of rounded out tops on the H4, maybe the lower high bounce is in here? Could easily be. We are at the top part of the channel in their bearish rising wedges. And currently touched off the Volume Profile resistance area.

Other coins, honorable mentions: APU

• APU, drew up two Volume Profiles; One since the current bottom from a few days back and one from this current steep uptrend.
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• The POC since the bottom is the 45-57 area, which would perfectly align with a higher low as demonstrated with the green path
• ​
• The POC from the recent steep uptrend is above price at 75. A reclaim and hold of that could set us up for instant continuation.
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• We have a MSB level at 66 marked with the yellow line. If we break that the red path idea gets probably invalidated.

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• As mentioned yesterday we just have to be patient and give the market time. No need to get too zoomed in or overtrade these phases.
• We are also exactly getting the low volatility boredom phase. No Alts running, everything just chopping and bleeding around.
• People will give up and leave.
• Crypto is interesting to retail until they see green everywhere and get their dopamine hit by everything mooning around. When they dont get their dopamine, and their coins are bleeding out, they will just leave and do something else.
• This phase hasnt come yet, but I think its beginning. We still have to give it weeks or even months to properly see the sentiment and effects.

Further notes about the market - if any

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