Nuclear Proliferation in the Cold War�Unit VIII: The Cold War and Decolonization

Little Boy on Elk Grove?

U.S. tests H-Bomb in the Bikini Atoll

Cold War Beginnings…

Nuclear Proliferation

1. 1946: U.S. tests hydrogen bombs at the Bikini Atolls
2. 1949: Soviet Union acquires atomic weapons
3. 1952: Britain
4. 1960: France
5. 1964: China

Tsar Bomba: 50 megaton (10x more explosive firepower than all munitions used in WWII)

Tsar Bomba on Elk Grove?

New Weapons…

1. ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles)
2. SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles)
3. ALCMs (Air-Launched Cruise Missiles)
4. MIRVs (Multiple Independently-Targetable Reentry Vehicles)

Kahn’s Escalation Ladder

Brinkmanship: The willingness of both sides to go to the brink (edge) of nuclear war

…and Deterrent

Mutually-Assured Destruction (MAD)

• Full-scale use by both sides 🡺 destruction of both (all)
• Neither would choose to start nuclear war

Game Theory and the Prisoner’s Dilemma

The Prisoners’ Dilemma�What happens in the world when humans are “rational and self-interested…”

Two prisoners are arrested for a heinous crime and are being interrogated separately. Both prisoners were caught breaking and entering, but the interrogators have little evidence that you are guilty of assault, theft, and conspiracy. Each knows that if neither of them talks and they will be convicted and punished for lesser charges because the case against them is weak.

Prisoners’ Dilemma

1 year

Parole

30 years

15 years

1 year

15 years

Parole

30 years

LIKELIHOOD OF RESULT:

• This is an important theme: maximizing individual welfare does not necessarily aggregate to optimal welfare for a group. Consequently, we see the value of communication. If the two prisoners could only communicate, they could cooperate and agree to hold out so they would both get lighter sentences. But without the possibility of communication, neither can risk it, so both end up worse off.

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The Students’ Dilemma�What happens in the world when humans are “rational and self-interested…”

• Two students are given the opportunity to earn or lose points. They will make a decision that will either give them extra credit points or cost them points that they have already earned. What decision would you make if you are looking out for your best interests?

Students’ Dilemma

3 pts

10 pts

-15 pts

0 pts

3 pts

0 pts

10 pts

-15 pts

Lecture Review Question #4

The Students’ Dilemma Activity: Did you choose to cooperate or betray?

LIKELIHOOD OF RESULT:

• This is an important theme: maximizing individual welfare does not necessarily aggregate to optimal welfare for a group. Consequently, we see the value of communication. If the two students could only communicate, they could cooperate and agree to hold out so they would both get the minimum 3 points. But without the possibility of communication, neither can risk it, so both end up worse off.

Kahn’s Escalation Ladder

• During the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union had key strategic decisions to make that may have led to nuclear war. Both sides made decisions that they believed was best for themselves, especially if communications on both sides broke down. Here are the possibilities for a nuclear confrontation:

The Cold War Dilemma

Tensions continue

Complete victory

Armageddon—humanity wiped out

American cities and missile sites destroyed

Tensions continue

Soviet cities and missile sites destroyed

Complete victory

Armageddon—humanity wiped out

LIKELIHOOD OF RESULT:

• This is an important theme: maximizing individual welfare does not necessarily aggregate to optimal welfare for a group. Consequently, we see the value of communication. If the two students could only communicate, they could cooperate and agree to hold out so they would both get the minimum 3 points. But without the possibility of communication, neither can risk it, so both end up worse off.

Arms Reduction

1. Nuclear Non-proliferation : Aims to keep others from nuke tech
2. SALT I, 1972: limits # of ballistic missiles
3. SALT II
1. Ends Détente
2. Not signed because…

The Nuclear Age continues…

Cold War Soap Operas

Cold War/Decolonization Soap Opera

Cold War/Decolonization Soap Opera

Last Night: Review your assigned topic using textbooks or online research; Create a notes for required subjects and short annotated timeline for your event

TODAY: In-class preparation (60 min)

TOMORROW: 10-15 min rehearsal, Soap Opera presentations

RUBRIC REMINDERS

• A completed script (10 pts)
• Most group members (5-7 per group) must play a role, either on-screen or off-screen (4 pts)
• Accurately depict the chronology of the event (5 pts)
• Must be overly-dramatic (3 pts)
• Include an instance of audience participation (3 pts)
• Include required events/characters accurately (10 pts)

Informal presentations—scripts can be read (no memorization needed!)