1 of 31

Adaptation of Rural Communities to Climate Change

Sucharita Sen

​

Centre for the Study of Regional Development

Jawaharlal Nehru University

2 of 31

Linking Science and Society in Climate Change: Research Gaps

  • Till recently focus has been either on
    • scientific aspects of climate change even in terms of its impacts, say on agriculture

OR

    • on adaptive capacities that emerge out of social science literature.

​

  • Attempts to connect science and social science within the larger climate change discourse has been few.

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

3 of 31

Scientific and Social-Science Knowledge: Comparison of Perspectives on Climate Change

  • Comparison essential for arriving at meaningful perspectives of adaptation.
  • Much of the scientific parameters of Climate Change is known.
  • The question is what do we do about it?
  • Mitigation is in the Government domain, but policies for facilitating adaptation entirely comes from the ‘people’ (varied by locations and identities).
  • Adaptation comes from perception of impacts and assessment of the adaptation mechanisms on livelihood parameters.
  • Scientific knowledge about agriculture or natural resources is hard to implement on ground without it being in tune with the local community.

​

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

4 of 31

Film 1. Is Earth Warming? Climate Change, Lines of Evidence�

  • Some Scientific Facts….

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

5 of 31

How is India likely to get affected?

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

​

Heat

Rainfall

Droughts

​

Glacier Melt

​

What we know

India is already experiencing a warming climate.

A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s. The frequency of heavy rainfall events increased.

An increase in the number of drought

In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop areas. 2014?

Glaciers in the northwestern Himalayas/ Karakoram range stable but glaciers fed by the summer monsoon retreating

What could happen

Unusual spells of hot weather more frequently and in larger areas.

Summer monsoon unpredictable;

an extremely wet monsoon- once in every 10 years.

Increase in extreme events

 More frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh.

Melting glaciers and the loss of snow cover in Himalayas expected to threaten stability and reliability of northern India’s primarily glacier-fed rivers (Indus and the Brahmaputra)- seasonal fluctuations. 

6 of 31

Agriculture and food security

What we know 

  • Rice: Lower rainfall at the end of the growing season have caused a significant loss in India’s rice production. Increases in rice could have been higher.
  •  Wheat :Extremely high temperatures in northern India - above 34°C - have had a substantial negative effect on wheat yields, impacting the germination period.

What could happen

  • Seasonal water scarcity, rising temperatures, and intrusion of sea water would threaten crop yields
  • Substantial yield reductions in both rice and wheat can be expected in the near and medium term.
  • Mountain Agriculture: Threatened by fluctuating water supplies- higher in the springs and lower in the late springs in summer. Flows expected to reduce in the long term…

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

7 of 31

Potential Impacts: Some Opportunities

  1. Alter the distribution of agro-ecological zones
    • Expansion of cultivated area
    • Lengthen growing seasons in Himalayan areas.
    • Extreme events of rainfall could allow potentials for local storage of water.
  2. Carbon dioxide effects
    • Greater water use efficiency
    • Higher rate of Photosynthesis
    • But.. increased use of fertilizers

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

8 of 31

Film 2:  INDIA: �Thank you,� climate change? �

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

9 of 31

Mitigation and Adaptation: Difference

  • Mitigation: Abate, moderate or alleviate impacts by reducing or stabilizing green-house gas emissions (ex-ante).
  • Adaptation: Adjustments in ecological-social-economic systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli- and change their effects or impacts (ex-post)

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

10 of 31

Anatomy of Adaptation

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

What is Adaptation?

Adaptation to What

CLIMATE RELATED STIMULI

  • Phenomena
  • Time/space scales

Who or what adapts?

SYSTEMS THROUGH INDIVIDUALS AND INSTITUTION

How does Adaptation Occur?

TYPES

  • Processes
  • Outcomes

Non-climatic forces

And Conditions

How Good is the Adaptation?

EVALUATION

  • Criteria
  • Principles

11 of 31

Typologies of Climate Changes that would Impact Agriculture and Allied Activities

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

12 of 31

Perceptions to Climate Change first step to Adaptation and potentially depends on..

Community characteristics

  • Dependence on primary and allied activity
  • Remoteness
  • With strong institutions and history of collective action
  • Vulnerable to fluctuations with respect to means of livelihood: high sensitivity

​

Individual characteristics

  • Age/experience
  • Years of education
  • Economic status
  • Gender-division of labour
  • Status in household (decision-making)
  • Occupation and interaction with natural resources
  • Place of residence
  • Exposure to media

​

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

13 of 31

Film 2: Coping with Change: Climate Change Adaptation in the North Eastern Region of India �

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

14 of 31

Resilience and Sensitivity of Agro-Ecosystems

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Resilience to Climate Change

Sensitivity to Climate Change

High

Low

High

Prone to Change

High Adaptive Capacity

Less Prone to Change

High Adaptive Capacity

Low

Prone to Change

Low Adaptive Capacity

Less Prone to Change

Low Adaptive Capacity

15 of 31

Vulnerability of Individuals/ Community and Capacity to Adapt

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Vulnerability Indicators

Proxy for:

Mechanisms for Translation into Vulnerability

Poverty

​

Lower order Social Identities

Marginalization

Narrowing of coping and resistance strategies; less diversified and restricted entitlements; lack of empowerment

Inequality

Conflicts in terms of interests ; Degree of collective responsibility low;

Direct: Concentration of available resources in smaller groups restricting collective entitlements

Indirect: Inequality and poverty links

Institutional Adaptation

Conduits of collective perception of vulnerability; determines MBCA and resilience

​

Responsiveness, evolution and adaptability at community level reducing individual vulnerabilities

16 of 31

Field Insights: Farm size and 5 Forms of Capital

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

​

Human

Financial

Natural

Physical

Social

Cumulative

Small

1.42

1.00

2.00

2.31

2.70

1.88

Medium

1.73

2.00

2.33

2.46

2.69

2.25

Large

2.15

2.19

2.46

2.58

2.23

2.32

Total

1.77

1.74

2.27

2.45

2.54

2.15

17 of 31

Typology of Adaptations

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Short Term

Long Term

1. Farm responses

1. Changing Crop Type

i. Crop and Livestock Diversification and Changes in Timing of Farm Operations

2. Development of new Technology in response to a direction of change

ii. Improved Nutrient and Pest Control

Management

3. Improving Water Management

2. Temporary/ seasonal Migration

4. Changing timings of agricultural operations

3. Insurance

5. Permanent Migration

​

​

18 of 31

Adaptation Irrespective of Climate Change that may help mitigate effects of Climate Change

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Public Response

Private Response

Increasing public investment in Infrastructure

Increasing private investment in irrigation and other agricultural assets

​

Reform of pricing schemes- provision of regulated markets

Changing place of sale of agricultural product

R&D investments (can be directed to climate change effects)

Taking benefits of extension services

Incentives for trade

Diversification of Income sources and cropping system

Dissemination of climatic data

​

Using disseminated climatic data for deciding short term crop strategies

Provisioning extension service

​

​

Strengthening and ensuring participation in old and new community institutions respectively

Enabling institution building (watershed programmes)

​

19 of 31

Some Field Insights…

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

20 of 31

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Location Map of Miyar Basin

21 of 31

Change in Lahaul Agriculture: Specialization towards High Value Crops

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

​

N

Peas

Potato

Kuth

Manu

Barley

Kidney Beans

Small Farmers

26

74.0

25.0

1.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(below 6 bighas)

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Medium Farmers

28

58.2

39.1

2.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

(6-10 bighas)

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Large Farmers

26

54.5

30.9

12.7

1.2

0.2

0.5

(above 10 bighas)

​

​

​

​

​

​

​

Al farmers

80

58.8

33.0

7.2

0.6

0.1

0.2

Share of Gross Cropped Area (in %)

A complete departure from the traditional crops.

22 of 31

Market Oriented Production

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Size of Land Holding

Peas

Potato

Kuth

Manu

Small Farmers

 

N

25

19

2

 

% product marketed

100.0

80.3

85.7

 

Medium Farmers

 

N

28

28

4

 

% product marketed

100.0

92.5

77.4

 

Large Farmers

 

N

26

26

22

3

% product marketed

99.6

89.9

76.0

87.5

All farmers

 

N

79

73

28

3

% product marketed

99.9

88.4

76.9

87.5

High percentage of marketed surplus.

23 of 31

Reasons for Commercialization: �Not an Issue of Climate (Change)

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Farm Size Categories

Road

Better Income

Access to Information

Row Total

Small Farmers

10

14

2

26

38.5%

53.8%

7.7%

100.0%

Medium Farmers

11

13

4

28

39.3%

46.4%

14.3%

100.0%

Large Farmers

16

10

0

26

61.5%

38.5%

.0%

100.0%

All Farmers

37

37

6

80

46.3%

46.3%

7.5%

100.0%

As a result of connectivity and demand for higher income.

​

24 of 31

Is Commercialisation Risky?

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Farm Size Categories

Risky

Not Risky

Small Farmers

17

9

65.4%

34.6%

Medium Farmers

19

9

67.9%

32.1%

Large Farmers

16

10

61.5%

38.5%

All Farmers

52

28

65.0%

35.0%

Commercialization considered to be risky by most of the farmers.

25 of 31

Risks to Commertialisation

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Farm Size Categories

Ex-Ante Factors

Ex-Post Factors

Row Total

Road Blocks

​

Climatic Variability

Pests

Land Degradation

Small Farmers

4

4

2

16

26

15.4%

15.4%

7.7%

61.5%

100%

Medium Farmers

2

6

3

17

28

7.1%

21.4%

10.7%

60.7%

100%

Large Farmers

5

9

2

10

26

19.2%

34.6%

7.7%

38.5%

100%

All Farmers

11

19

7

43

80

13.8%

23.8%

8.8%

53.8%

100%

  1. Land degradation the most important factor, not so much to the large farmers.
  2. Climatic variability important for large farmers.

26 of 31

Farmers’ Perception of Climatic Changes

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

An increase in temperature coupled with delay in the snowfall onset perceived for more than a decade.

27 of 31

Perception of Effect on Resources: � ‘No Change in Water Availability for Agriculture’ which is still Abundant

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

No change felt in terms of water availability for irrigation from Kuls.

Some drying of wells are evident, but the households easily transition to alternative wells.

​

28 of 31

No or at Best Weak Responses/Adaptations

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Perception in change in temperature (increase) and delay in snow onset could potentially increase cropping season and intensity.

But little/no response to the perceived climatic change due to the uncertainties and suitability factors attached to it.

29 of 31

Local Institutions in Response to Resource Management

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Village

Mahila Mandal

​

Yuva Mandal

Community Grazing

Gram Panchayat Representation

Resource

Managed

Forest

Irrigation Water

Livestock

​

Tingrit

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Ghumpa

No

No

Combined with Urgos Village

Yes

Urgos

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Sukto

Combined with Khanjar Village

Yes

Khanjar

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

30 of 31

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014

Labour Exchange: Use of Social Capital to deal with financial and human capital constraints

Kuhl Committee: Use of Social Capital to deal with natural capital constraints

Examples of Informal Institutions

31 of 31

Film 3:Factoring Gender into Climate Change Action �

CSE, Agenda for survival, 2014

6/26/2014