Statistika, přítel či nepřítel
K čemu statistika je
„It is a description in numerical terms of historical events that happened in a definite period of time with definite groups of people in a definite geographical area. Its meaning consists precisely in the fact that it describes changes, not something unchanging.“ (Theory and History)
Agregáty, ano či ne?
… ale
Kdo a jak to vyrábí
Statistika a tržní proces
Nezávislost, Evropa a USA
Existují politické tlaky?
… nezávislost v ekonomicky vyspělých zemích je obecně velmi respektována
… vysoká citlivost finančních trhů na vypovídací schopnost dat
… pravidelné audity (OECD, IMF, Eurostat, ECA, aj.)
… v Evropě má metodika formu nařízení
… evropská legislativa postihuje manipulaci se statistikou, padají i pokuty (ES, AT)
… kreativita úředníků „jak obejít pravidla“
How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP
https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/350051528721174623-0050022018/original/Nightlights.pdf
„The main finding of the paper is that the night-lights elasticity of GDP is significantly larger in more autocratic regimes. Said differently, the same amount of growth in nighttime lights translates into higher reported GDP growth in autocracies than in democracies, which
I interpret as evidence of increased manipulation of official statistics in the former.“
The Political Economy of Bad Data
Do countries falsify economic data strategically? Some evidence that they migth
Eurostat a národní „staťáky“
„Eurostat opravil loňské hospodaření vlády, bylo ještě horší“
„Během druhého notifikačního ověřovacího cyklu Eurostat opravil původní čísla“
Eurostat: „Eurostat has made no amendments to the data reported by Member States.“
Když se čísla mučí …
FT | com | Import | Export | Saldo |
USA | cons. | 100 | | -100 |
Čína | cons. | | 100 | 100 |
TiVA |
| Import | Export | Saldo |
USA | cons. | 50 | | |
| inter. | | 50 | |
| | 50 | 50 | 0 |
Čína | cons. | | 50 | |
| interm. | 50 | | |
| | 50 | 50 | 0 |
Jaký deficit je ten pravý …
Podpůrné slidy
Statistics matters!
„I will not seek re-election in 2017 if unemployment continued to rise.“ (Francois Hollande, 2016).
„To get the economy back on track, President Trump has outlined a bold plan to create 25 million new American jobs in the next decade and return to 4 percent annual economic growth,“ reads the White House site.
„If we had had the right figures, we would never have needed to go for the loan.“ (Denis Healey, 2006)
Statistics in economic policy
Statistics in economic policy
Illusionary productivity growth and economic bubble (?)
„By 1995 the investment boom had gathered momentum […]. These developments signalled that productivity growth was probably beginning to move high, even though official data, hobbled by statistical problems, failed to provide any confirmation.“
(Alan Greenspan’s speech; April 7, 2000)
Statistics in economic policy
„Several independent sources told Aftonbladet there were often incidents which would indicate that fake telephone interviews had been used as the basis of information sent to SCB.“
„A difference of 1.1 percentage points in unemployment figures for September might not sound like much, but it means the unrevised number was 18 % too high. “
„The FAI growth number for 2023 implies a downward revision of 7 trillion yuan, or 17% of total investment from the amount initially announced for the previous year“.
„Doubts about China’s official investment statistics — which measure spending on things such as housing, factories and infrastructure — have been fueled by frequent revisions in recent years, and the latest data implies an unusually large adjustment.“
„A lower estimate for growth in 2022 can mean that the 2023 number ends up higher. “
Statistics in economic policy
„Chinese officials announced Tuesday that they would temporarily stop publishing the youth unemployment rate, which has reached record highs in recent months, saying the way it is calculated needs refinement.“
Statistics in economic policy
The non-farm payroll growth in the US was revised down by 818,000 for the 12-month period ending March this year, according to the latest Labor Department figures released Wednesday.
„Weaker-than-expected payrolls data for July heightened fears the Fed may have waited too long to begin cutting rates, as the unemployment rate rose to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.“ (article)
Statistics in economic policy
„Since the beginning of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russian authorities have systematically restricted access to statistical data. In February 2023, the government was legally granted the right not to disclose official figures. Moreover, a new development strategy for the national statistics system explicitly states that Rosstat data may be concealed to avoid “negative consequences” from sanctions imposed by “unfriendly” nations.“