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Dublin Regional Energy Masterplan

Key Findings For Decarbonising Dublin’s Heat, Electricity and Transport Sectors Towards 2030 & 2050

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Dublin Regional Energy Masterplan

First of its kind in Ireland – building upon best international practice, example for other regions in Ireland to follow
Cost-optimal pathway to 2030 and 2050 targets
Holistic integrated energy model looking ALL energy sectors (heat, transport and electricity) and considering local technical constraints
Digital twin of the local energy landscape – evidence base for informing policy & infrastructure planning
Spatially-led (topographical & spatial constraints included)
Also considers the wider social & economic impacts

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Supporting National, Regional & Local Policy & Planning

Preparation of County/City Development Plans

At a local level, local authorities in Ireland have to meet a number of legal climate action obligations and targets. The DREM can help support local authorities to meet these requirements in areas such as:

Identification of Strategic Energy Zones & Decarbonising Zone Assessment

Preparation of Climate Mitigation Plans & EU Covenant of Mayors SECAPs

Roll Out of Low-Carbon Infrastructure

Carbon & Energy Assessment of Planning Applications

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Current Situation

Total Emissions & Gap to Target

Dublin’s emissions account for 5,699 ktCO₂, 4.22 tonnes of CO₂ per person (for the sectors identified in the DREM)
Heat 46%, transport 28% and electricity at 26% of total emissions
The sectors that have the highest impact on emissions are the residential and transport sector, which combined, contribute 57% to total emissions.
The current gap to the 2030 target amounts to 2,856 ktCO₂ (48% reduction in emissions needed to meet the 2030 target from 2021).
A reduction of 5,699 ktCO₂ (100% reduction in emissions to meet the 2050 target from 2021) will be needed to meet the 2050 net zero target.

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Challenges & Barriers

Buildings

Barriers to building fabric upgrades:

Accessibility – making it possible and easy for decision makers to retrofit their buildings
Affordability – retrofit costs can be quite expensive especially to meet specific building regulation standards
Appetite – there is a need to make businesses and homeowners aware of the benefits of energy efficiency upgrades

Accessibility – making it possible and easy for decision makers to retrofit their buildings
Affordability – retrofit costs can be quite expensive especially to meet specific building regulation standards
Appetite – there is a need to make businesses and homeowners aware of the benefits of energy efficiency upgrades

Cost

One of the key constraints to retrofits is cost.
deprivation for small areas in the Dublin Region, with areas of high affluence shown as green and least affluent areas in red
The deprivation index helps policy makers and researchers to identify disadvantaged areas and has demonstrated strong correlations with a range of health and social outcome measures across many countries.
Considering that the average BER in Dublin for residential dwellings is a D2 and that the commercial sector is also an ageing and inefficient stock, the cost to retrofit these buildings will be quite high. This is even more so when specific heating technologies (such as heat pumps) would require a sufficiently energy efficient building to be installed and perform efficiently.

Consumer Behaviour and Consumption Practices

Cost and long payback periods for retrofits make it difficult for customer buy-in. This is even more so when you take into consideration consumer behaviour and consumption practices. In general, higher rated dwellings tend to use more energy than predicted, as occupants become used to the higher comfort levels, so because of warmer homes people might tend to change their normal patterns and start wearing shorts for example – so you’re not seeing the full effect of the building upgrade

Home and Business Tenure

rented accommodation and business properties, building owners would have very little incentive to invest in costly measures to improve energy efficiency as they do not directly benefit from them. Introducing minimum energy performance standards for rented buildings might be a way to increase the rate of retrofits in these buildings.
The lowest home ownership can be found in the inner city area and these areas overlap with areas that have a high number of apartments. For example, 52% of all residential buildings in Dublin 1, 2, 7 and 8 are apartments; these same areas also have poor BERs, with 68% of the residential stock with a D1 BER or worse. Therefore, these buildings (inner city apartments) will be some of the hardest to retrofit.

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Where to Start – Map of Homes with Poor EE in Areas with DPI Below Average

Building energy efficiency rating (BER) from SEAI database and extrapolated by building age for remaining buildings

Deprivation Index used to outline residents most at risk to energy poverty

Both are combined to identify areas where retrofitting should be concentrated first

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Social & Economic Impacts

Social and economic benefits from the Dublin Region Energy Masterplan:

Health Benefits - Improvement in Local Air Pollution and Air Quality
Local employment generated (direct & indirect)
Avoided Carbon Costs - Cost of Carbon (Shadow price)
Reduction in Energy Bills for Residents & Businesses
Warmer Homes
Reduction of Fuel Poverty
Reduced reliance on Fuel Imports

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Pathway to 2030 & 2050

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Dublin Region Energy Masterplan

Summary

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Key Recommendations

Energy Planning

Guidelines for local level energy planning are made available to municipalities
Energy planning becomes a requirement for implementing local level energy plans with clear pathways and long-term commitments to a low-carbon future

Building Energy Efficiency

To alleviate energy poverty, the county should consider prioritising energy efficiency upgrades in areas that have been identified in this masterplan as being energy poor.
Regulatory solutions to tackle the issue of split incentives should be considered, minimum energy efficiency standards for rented properties are applied; funding mechanisms for energy efficiency upgrades, particularly addressing long payback periods and high upfront costs in both the residential and non-residential sector, need to be addressed.

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Key Recommendations

Heat

Evidence-based zoning for DH and having requirements in place for buildings in these areas re: connection, futureproofing, characterising heat sources (waste heat reports)
Ensure low-carbon heat sources are treated fairly in Part L building regulations (in line with REDII)
Make financial support more easily available for these low-carbon solutions

Electricity

Support the development of generation assets where suitable
Development of enabling infrastructure needs to be supported to realise renewable potential
Promote the adoption of building integrated PV particularly in buildings where demand and production profiles match

Transport

Electrifying 550k existing cars will not fix Dublin’s transport problems - need to substantially reduce no. of cars and distance travelled by cars
Focus on active travel and buses - additional powers required for LAs to reallocate road space to more sustainable modes, enforcement of traffic regulations required

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Email:

rebecca.cachia@codema.ie

Phone (+353) 01 707 9818

Web www.codema.ie

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Additional Information

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Pathway to 2030 & 2050

Heat

Areas to satisfy 2.7TWh target by 2030 stated in CAP to allow for more realistic scaling

Areas identified as more suited for either DH or HP based €/tCO2

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Pathway to 2030 & 2050

Electricity

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Pathway to 2030 & 2050

Transport

2030 Targets:

213k EVs, fossil fuel car-km 23%

Public transport: bus-km 25%

Freight: logistics management, EVs, e-cargo bikes, rail

2050 Targets:

Car-km 50%

Bus-km 50%

All transport modes electrified

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Pathway to 2030 & 2050

If the Dublin Region were to carry out all the suggested recommendations, it could potentially:

reduce emissions by 4,103 ktCO₂ by the year 2030
reduce emissions by 8,240 ktCO₂ by 2050
increase renewable electricity generation in the Dublin Region to 14,780 GWh by 2050.
meet the 2030 targets and exceed the 2050 target, going beyond net-zero emissions and becoming net-exporter of energy (-295 ktCO₂) by 2050
decrease energy costs by a total of €519 million per year from renewable energy technologies (onshore and offshore wind, utility scale solar PV and building integrated solar PV)
avoid a cost of over €24 billion, if we were to apply the shadow price of carbon to the total avoided emissions over the lifetime of the masterplan
increase direct jobs by over 182,500 by 2050